Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 029 · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
This was a full AI liquidation day and the worst session of this run for both groups. The nuclear basket fell −9.59% and optics fell −16.40%. The S&P fell −4.36%, its worst day since 2025 (per reports). The Nasdaq fell −5.52% into correction territory, the SOX fell −12.25%, and the VIX jumped +69.7% to 28.18. Every name we track set a new 52-week low on heavy volume except CEG, which closed at its lowest level since July. Physical uranium didn’t move. Implied spot is still about $92/lb, but SPUT’s units fell 3.5% on 3.4× their usual volume, pushing the discount to about −16.4% (estimate).
Reports didn’t point to any single headline. Three causes came up:
Hedge funds taking profits in 2026’s winners ahead of year-end. Nomura said it “isn’t about a sudden deterioration in fundamentals.”
Renewed worry that the new Congress could slow data-center buildouts.
Net selling by retail investors.
Chip stocks lost roughly $2T in market value. NVDA fell −9.26% and is now negative YTD. MU fell −17.46% and TSM −10.78%. The 10-yr fell to 4.84%, and WTI rose about 3% to about $91 on uncertainty over talks with Iran.
SMR reported after the bell. Revenue was $281K, against a $3.84M estimate. The EPS loss of −$0.11 was a penny better than expected, and cash stands at $1.90B. It also signed a fabrication agreement with Doosan, and its talks with TVA through ENTRA1 continue. The stock was about −2.8% after hours, on top of a −14.81% session.
Three takeaways
The capitulation test we set on 10/23 was met. We said we’d watch for volume of at least 2× average with closes near the lows. Today CCJ traded 2.6×, UEC 2.6×, BWXT 2.7×, OKLO 2.0× and URA 2.4×, and most closed within 2–4% of their lows. A day like this is what an exhaustion low looks like. It doesn’t confirm one. Friday’s follow-through and the jobs report come next.
Even the physical vehicle got sold. NAV (as of Wednesday) is $22.07, and implied spot of about $91.96 is essentially flat for the week. But SPUT’s units traded on 3.4× average volume, and the estimated −16.4%discount would be the widest in our log. Funds sold everything they could sell, including the vehicle that holds physical uranium.
Since 10/6, both groups have taken a hit: optics −50.8% on average, and the nuclear basket −35.9%. The groups in the ranking held for a 23rd session. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~−85%, BWXT ~−197%, CCJ ~−345%, UEC ~−378%, LEU ~−421%, OKLO ~−650%, SMR ~−974%.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket −9.59% · S&P −4.36% · Nasdaq −5.52% · SOX −12.25% · Optics −16.40%
VIX 28.18 (+69.7%), its highest close since 3/30
New 52-week lows: CCJ $66.06 · UEC $6.11 · LEU $84.90 · OKLO $18.53 · SMR $4.28 · BWXT $112.59 · URA $30.40
YTD: OKLO −73.2% · SMR −69.2% · LEU −63.3% · NVDA −2.6%
SPUT NAV $22.07 (Wednesday). Implied spot ~$91.96/lb. Today’s discount about −16.4% (estimate)
LITE–MRVL deal spread 17.9% · 10-yr 4.84% · WTI about $91
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 51,523.06, −1,833.06 (−3.44%)
S&P 500 7,353.73, −334.89 (−4.36%), its lowest close since 7/29
Nasdaq Composite 24,315.00, −1,421.52 (−5.52%). That puts it in correction, at its lowest close since 4/21.
Russell 2000 2,729.89, −127.06 (−4.45%)
Chips:
The SOX fell −12.25% to its lowest close since 4/10. Chip stocks lost about $2T in market value.
MU fell −17.46% to $656.39, TSM −10.78% and NVDA −9.26% to $181.60, which leaves NVDA −2.6% YTD.
AMD fell about 15% intraday, and QCOM fell after its results.
Other AI names: PLTR and CrowdStrike each fell more than 10% at their lows. SpaceX and TSLA each fell more than 9%.
Power:
GE Vernova fell −7.48%, VST −6.15% (its lowest close in a year) and NRG −3.24% (also a year low).
XLU fell only −0.71%.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.84% (−6bp), its lowest close since 9/9.
Volatility: VIX closed at 28.18 (+69.7%), its biggest one-day jump in more than two years.
Oil: December WTI rose about +3.2% to roughly $91, and Brent was about $98, on uncertainty over a U.S.–Iran deal.
Gold and bitcoin: gold was about $4,100 (+0.7%) and bitcoin about $75.9K (−5.3%).
02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
SMR $4.37, −14.81%.
It set a new 52-week low of $4.28 and closed 9 cents above it. YTD −69.2%. It was about −2.8% after hours.
Q3 results:
Revenue was $281K, against $3.84M expected. The year-ago quarter included RoPower engineering fees that have since ended.
GAAP EPS was −$0.11, against −$0.12 expected.
Cash and investments were $1.90B. It has raised about $985M of equity so far this year.
It signed a fabrication agreement with Doosan Enerbility for its reactor’s upper coolant system. Talks between ENTRA1 and TVA continue, with no binding agreement yet.
OKLO $19.20, −13.20%.
It set a new 52-week low of $18.53 and closed at its lowest level in a year. Volume was about 2.0× its 50-day average.
YTD −73.2%. Q3 is due around 11/10.
BWXT $114.96, −5.38%.
It set a new 52-week low of $112.59 and closed at its lowest level in a year. Volume was about 2.7×average.
It is −12.8% in the three sessions since its results. YTD −33.5%.
CEG $239.65, −2.47%.
It fell to $231.30 intraday and closed at its lowest level since 7/2. Volume was about 2.0× average.
It held up better than any other name we track. YTD −32.2%. Q3 is due around 11/9.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
UEC $6.48, −9.87%.
It fell to a new 52-week low of $6.11 on 2.6× average volume, below the unconfirmed $6.75 print from 10/23.
YTD −44.5%.
CCJ $68.33, −4.67%.
It set a new 52-week low of $66.06 on 2.6× average volume, its fifth straight new low.
It is −18.2% since its results. YTD −25.3%.
LEU $89.03, −3.83%.
It set a new 52-week low of $84.90 and closed at its lowest level in a year. Volume was about 1.8× average.
It is 55.4% below its $199.64 offering price. YTD −63.3%.
URA $30.98, −5.26%. It set a new low of $30.40 on 2.4× average volume. YTD −27.5%.
SPUT
Wednesday 11/4 print:
NAV $22.07 (−0.06%). Discount −13.40%.
Implied spot about $91.96/lb.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) fell −3.45% to $18.45, on 3.4× average volume. If NAV held at $22.07, the discount would be about −16.4% (our estimate). That would be wider than the −15.51% low of 10/14. At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $77.72/lb.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
AAOI $46.89, −20.89%. It closed at its lowest level since 2/18. YTD +34.5%.
LITE $509.70, −18.68%.
It closed at its lowest level since 2/5, 55.4% below its $1,143.00 record.
Deal spread: 4.5 × MRVL’s $133.55 close = $600.98 of implied value. LITE closed 17.9% below that, its widest gap since the deal was announced.
CRDO $112.33, −17.71%. It closed at its lowest level since 4/9. YTD −21.9%.
MRVL $133.55, −16.43%. It closed at its lowest level since 4/16. It is −47% since the 10/28 report.
CIEN $230.81, −15.22%. It closed at its lowest level since 1/23, and is now −1.3% YTD.
COHR $169.76, −12.98%. It closed at its lowest level since 12/2/2025, and is now −8.0% YTD.
GLW $103.43, −12.92%. It closed at its lowest level since 1/30. YTD +18.1%.
Since 10/6: the six optics names are down −50.8% on average, so roughly half their value is gone in a month. CRDO, CIEN and COHR are now down for the year.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: SPUT print for 11/5 · after-hours follow-through on SMR
Fri 11/6: October jobs report · our Week in Review edition
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
06 · Desk Read
i. This was a liquidation, not a reaction to news. No single headline drove it. Profit-taking in the year’s AI winners, concern about data-center policy after the election, and retail selling all stacked up into one session. Nearly everything with AI exposure fell together: chips −12%, optics −16%, the nuclear developers −13–15%, generators −3–7%. Utilities fell only 0.7%, and the 10-yr fell. The selling hit the trade, not the economy.
ii. Today met our capitulation test from 10/23, but that doesn’t make it a bottom call. We said we’d change our read on a day with volume of 2× average or more and closes near the lows. Today CCJ, UEC, BWXT, OKLO and URA all traded 2.0–2.7× average and closed 2–4% above their lows. That fits an exhaustion day. It doesn’t prove one. Here’s what would confirm it:
A Friday session where these names hold above today’s lows.
The SPUT discount narrowing back toward −13%.
And what would count against it:
More new lows on rising volume.
iii. The commodity hasn’t moved. Implied spot is about $92/lb, essentially where it was a week ago. The SPUT discount moved from −11.8% on 10/29 to an estimated −16.4% today because the units were sold, not because uranium fell. CCJ is −18% since its results. UEC is −14% this week. Every listed way to own uranium sold off, while uranium itself held.
Corrections
LITE’s fiscal Q1 2027 report: Lumentum released its fiscal Q1 results on 11/2, alongside the Marvell announcement, not on 11/5 as our calendar showed in Editions 026–028. We hadn’t covered the results separately. Its pending deal is now the main driver of the stock.
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Deal spread = (4.5 × MRVL close) ÷ LITE close − 1. Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. After-hours prices were pulled at about 6:20pm ET and are thinly traded. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Friday 11/6, post-close (with Week in Review)