Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 027 · Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · Post-close · Election Day
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
BWXT passed the test we set Monday night. The stock traded −3% after hours on its results, then closed +1.03% today on 1.4× average volume, so the market paid for a strong cash quarter. CEG rose +2.39% and power generators led (VST +3.7%). CCJ set a new low for a third straight session and is −13.1% since its results. OKLO also set a new 52-week low. The nuclear basket rose +0.16% on a quiet pre-election tape. LEU reports tomorrow.
The S&P ended a three-day losing streak (+0.36%). The Nasdaq rose +0.83% as chips rebounded (SOX +2.63%), and the Dow fell −0.38% on Apple’s margin outlook. Oil recovered part of Monday’s drop, with WTI about $98.50 (+2%), after reports of a U.S. strike on an Iranian position on Qeshm Island. The 10-yr rose 6bp to 4.95%. Midterm results start tonight.
In optics, everything except LITE rebounded, up +4.4% on average. LITE fell −0.62% while MRVL rose +0.33%. That widened the deal spread to 13.8%, from 11.3% on Monday.
Three takeaways
The market rewarded BWXT’s fundamentals. EPS was up 26% and free cash flow up 59%, and the stock went from −3% after hours to +1% at the close. The two companies that already earn the money (BWXT, CEG) are leading the basket. Within the fuel names, CCJ is still being sold on its quarter.
Power generators outperformed utilities. VST +3.7%, NRG +1.7% and CEG +2.4%, while XLU fell −0.6%. That’s the reverse of last week, when investors sold generators and bought utilities. One session isn’t a trend.
Physical uranium’s streak ended, but the discount is narrowing again. NAV slipped −0.15% on Monday, ending a five-day run. Monday’s discount was officially −14.89%. SPUT units rose +1.85% today, which narrows it to about −13.3% (estimate).
Key numbers
Nuclear basket +0.16% · S&P +0.36% · Nasdaq +0.83% · SOX +2.63%
New 52-week lows: CCJ $71.86 · OKLO $22.93. Both closed at their lowest level in a year
BWXT +1.03% · CEG +2.39% · VST +3.70%
LITE−MRVL deal spread 13.8%, wider than Monday’s 11.3%
SPUT NAV $22.22 (−0.15%, Monday data). Implied spot ~$92.60/lb
10-yr 4.95% (+6bp) · VIX 20.83 · WTI about $98.50
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 51,786.72 (−0.38%)
S&P 500 7,568.92 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq Composite 25,372.01 (+0.83%)
Russell 2000 2,812.45 (+0.23%)
Chips: the SOX rose +2.63%. NVDA rose +2.29% to $206.69, MU +2.58% and TSM +1.55%.
Laggards: AAPL fell on its margin outlook and iPad sales, pulling the Dow down. PLTR fell despite beating estimates, on slower growth in new bookings.
Power: Bloom Energy rose about 9% midday, citing AI data center power demand and a new California partnership. VST rose +3.70% to $139.59, NRG +1.73% and CEG +2.39%. XLU fell −0.57%.
Oil: WTI rose about +2% to roughly $98.50, and Brent was about $106.50. The move followed reports of a U.S. strike on an Iranian position on Qeshm Island (intraday).
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.95% (+6bp).
Volatility: VIX closed at 20.83 (−1.5%).
Gold: about $3,912 (−1.5%).
Election: midterm results are expected through the evening. Markets will react tomorrow.
02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
BWXT $131.82, +1.03%.
It opened flat at $130.46 even though it traded about −3% after hours. It then fell to $129.01 and rallied to $135.00 before closing up.
Volume was about 1.4× its 50-day average. YTD −23.7%.
The Q3 numbers behind the move: revenue +10%, non-GAAP EPS +26%, free cash flow +59%, 2026 guidance reaffirmed, and a new Army reactor selection.
CEG $263.40, +2.39%.
Range $259.61–$267.67. It is 1.6% below its 10/5 close. YTD −25.4%.
Q3 is due around 11/9.
OKLO $23.49, −0.13%.
It set a new 52-week low of $22.93, then closed 2.4% above it but at its lowest close in a year.
YTD −67.3%. Q3 is due around 11/10.
SMR $5.37, +0.37%.
Range $5.27–$5.57. Volume was about 0.6× average. YTD −62.1%.
Q3 is due Thursday 11/5.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
CCJ $72.56, −1.12%.
It set a new 52-week low of $71.86 for the third straight session and closed at its lowest level in a year.
Volume was about 1.6× average. It is −13.1% over the three sessions since its results. YTD −20.7%.
LEU $95.67, +0.81%.
Range $94.53–$99.27. It held above Monday’s $94.43 low. YTD −60.6%.
Q3 is Wednesday 11/4.
UEC $7.56, +0.67%. YTD −35.3%.
URA $33.05, +0.36%. It traded down to $32.81, a new intraday low. YTD −22.7%.
SPUT
Monday 11/2 print:
NAV $22.22, down −0.15%, which ended a five-session streak of gains.
Discount −14.89%, matching our −15.0% estimate.
Implied spot about $92.60/lb.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) rose +1.85% to $19.26. If NAV held at $22.22, the discount would be about −13.3%(our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $81.13/lb.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
CRDO $150.91, +7.78%. Its YTD return is back in positive territory (+4.9%).
CIEN $300.08, +5.54%. YTD +28.3%.
COHR $207.49, +3.77%. YTD +12.4%.
GLW $126.14, +2.39%. YTD +44.1%.
AAOI $63.97, +2.35%. YTD +83.5%.
LITE $680.16, −0.62%.
It traded up to $719.97 (+5.2%) and then faded. Volume was about 1.4× average. YTD +84.5%.
Deal spread: 4.5 × MRVL’s $171.97 close = $773.87 of implied value. LITE closed 13.8% below that, against 11.3% on Monday.
MRVL $171.97, +0.33%. Volume was about 1.8× average.
The pattern: the optics names without a pending deal rebounded with chips, while LITE now trades on the deal. The spread widened on a day the target fell and the buyer rose. That suggests the market sees more risk that the deal doesn’t close.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: midterm election results · SPUT print for 11/3
Wed 11/4: LEU Q3
Thu 11/5: SMR Q3 · LITE Q1 FY27 (timing subject to the deal)
Fri 11/6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
06 · Desk Read
i. One result, and an important one. We said that if BWXT closed lower on a quarter like this, the selling in the group wasn’t about fundamentals. It closed higher, on above-average volume, after trading −3% overnight. One day isn’t a pattern, but it is the first clear sign in this run that a strong report from inside the basket gets paid for. CEG reports next week and is the next test of the same idea.
ii. CCJ is still being sold on its quarter, not on uranium. Physical uranium is near the highs in our log (implied spot ~$92.60), and the SPUT discount is narrowing again. CCJ has set three straight new lows, on 1.5–3× its usual volume. The market is pricing the gap between Cameco’s contract book and spot (a realized price of $65.78) and its C$3M operating cash flow quarter. Within the fuel group, UEC, which earns less from long-term contracts, now ranks ahead of CCJ.
iii. LEU tomorrow is the next read on fuel pricing. LEU is 52% below its offering price and about 60% down YTD, so expectations are low. Enrichment pricing and the LEU contract book are the numbers that matter. Election results will move the open more than anything sector-specific, so we’ll judge LEU’s reaction against the basket, not against the S&P.
Corrections
11/2 lows, revised in the consolidated data: CCJ $73.26 (not $73.25). LEU $94.43 (not $94.49).
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Ranking today: CEG ~−13%, BWXT ~−34%, UEC ~−236%, CCJ ~−269%, LEU ~−368%, OKLO ~−484%, SMR ~−679%. The three groups have now held for 21 sessions. Deal spread = (4.5 × MRVL close) ÷ LITE close − 1. Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Wednesday 11/4, post-close