Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
SEQH Capital Research · Trading & Research Desk
Edition 006 · Friday, October 2, 2026 · Post-close · Jobs Day + Week in Review
Prices as of 4:00 PM ET close unless stamped otherwise.
The Tape in 60 Seconds
A weak jobs report gave nuclear stocks a 3% gap up at the open, and rising long-term yields took it all back.
September payrolls rose just 29K vs. 84K expected, unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, and the prior two months were revised down by about 60K. That should be a gift for long-duration stocks. For the first hour it was: every name in our nuclear coverage gapped up 1.4–3.5% at the open. Then the bond market reversed. The 10-year, which dipped below 5.17% right after the report, closed at ~5.28% (+5 bp), and the 30-year finished at 5.63%. Our six nuclear names faded an average of 3.2% from open to close, and BWXT printed another new 52-week low.
The broad market didn’t fade. The S&P 500 rose 0.73% to 7,722.72, the Dow 0.49% to 51,176.96, and the Nasdaq 1.19% to 27,190.86 after touching a record intraday high, led by Nvidia. Our five-name nuclear basket fell 0.78%, 151 bp behind the S&P. For the week, the basket lost 4.14% while the S&P was roughly flat.
Three takeaways:
The open-to-close fade is the clearest read on what drives these stocks. The jobs report cut October hike odds, and nuclear rallied. The 30-year then rose, and nuclear gave it all back. These stocks trade on long-term yields, not on the Fed.
SPUT’s discount narrowed sharply. It reached −11.69% on 10/1, a 194 bp narrowing in four sessions and back to where it was a week ago. Spot uranium hasn’t moved.
Optics had a much better week. Through Thursday’s close, LITE was +11.1% on the week and COHR +7.9%, on Bernstein’s initiations and Deutsche Bank’s report that Lumentum’s 200G lasers are sold out.
Key numbers
September payrolls: +29K vs. 84K consensus · unemployment 4.2%
Net revisions to July and August: ~−60K
US 10-year: ~5.28% · intraday low below 5.17%
Average open-to-close fade, 6 nuclear names: −3.2%
Nuclear basket, week: −4.14% vs. S&P ≈ −0.3%
SPUT discount: −11.69% (10/1) · +194 bp narrower in 4 sessions
01 · Macro Tape
S&P 500: 7,722.72 · ▲ 56.27 (+0.73%)
Dow Jones: 51,176.96 · ▲ 250.40 (+0.49%)
Nasdaq Composite: 27,190.86 · ▲ 319.27 (+1.19%) · record intraday high
US 10-year: ~5.28% · ▲ ~5 bp after dipping below 5.17% on the report
US 30-year: ~5.63% · ▲ ~2 bp
US 2-year: ~4.84% · ▲ ~5 bp
Jobs report (September):
Payrolls: +29K vs. 84K consensus.
Unemployment: 4.2% vs. 4.1%.
Revisions: August cut to +133K from +162K, and July to −10K from +21K.
Composition: private payrolls +46K, government −17K.
Trend: the three-month average is now ~51K.
Read: this is the softest labor print since the Fed’s September hike, and it took an October hike largely off the table. Yet the 2-year still rose 5 bp and the 10-year 5 bp. The long end is now trading on term premium (the extra return investors demand to hold long bonds), deficits and oil, not on Fed policy. That matters for our sector: nuclear projects are valued off the 30-year curve. A softer Fed doesn’t lower the rate used to value a reactor if the 30-year won’t come down.
02 · The Gap-and-Fade: Open vs. Close
Every nuclear name opened higher on the jobs number and closed lower. Open → close, with the day’s change vs. Thursday:
UEC: $9.67 → $9.30 · fade −3.8% · day ▼ 0.64%
OKLO: $37.30 → $35.87 · fade −3.8% · day ▼ 0.75%
SMR: $8.04 → $7.75 · fade −3.6% · day ▼ 0.51%
LEU: $144.00 → $139.27 · fade −3.3% · day ▲ 0.12%
BWXT: $138.65 → $134.86 · fade −2.7% · day ▼ 1.41% · new 52-week low of $131.86
CCJ: $86.94 → $85.18 · fade −2.0% · day ▼ 0.60%
The average fade was −3.2%. The names with no near-term cash flow (UEC, OKLO, SMR) faded the most, and CCJ, with the most current cash flow, faded the least. The fade lined up with the 10-year’s ~11 bp move from its intraday low to its close.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
Physical market: Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U.U / SRUUF)
NAV per unit (10/1): $21.51 · flat
Market price (10/1 close): $19.00, a −11.69% discount
Discount path: −13.63% (9/28) → −13.21% → −12.99% → −11.69%, a 194 bp narrowing in four sessions and 130 bp on Thursday alone
U3O8 held: 81,697,348 lb, unchanged
SPUT-implied spot: $89.59/lb · flat
Implied $/lb at market price: ≈ $80.04, excluding cash, up from ~$78.65 Tuesday
NAV YTD: +8.68%
The round trip. SPUT closed 9/25 at $19.00 with a −11.72% discount and closed 10/1 at $19.00 with a −11.69% discount. The trust’s sell-off and recovery fit entirely within one week while spot sat at $89.6. The equity names didn’t recover with it.
Contracting tape (industry reports this week): the long-term price sits at a record $96/lb. Utilities are reportedly balking at that price and delaying term contracts, while TD Cowen expects buying to resume, likely in a Q4 rush. On supply, there are reports of a delayed Kazatomprom acid plant and a Russian acid export ban, which tighten supply at the margin.
Equities (Friday close)
CCJ: $85.18 · ▼ 0.60%. Range 84.81–87.20 on 2.86M shares. Market cap $37.24B. Down 3.28% on the week and 37.0% below its 52-week high. Consensus target $126.85 (+48.9%).
UEC: $9.30 · ▼ 0.64%. Range 9.23–9.74 on 8.03M shares. Consensus target slipped again to $16.21, now with 11 analysts after RBC’s initiation; it was $17.38 on Monday. Down 1.17% on the week.
LEU: $139.27 · ▲ 0.12%. Range 138.38–144.02. After hours $140.78 (+1.08%). Down 5.30% on the week and 30.2% below its $199.64 offering price.
04 · Reactors, SMRs & Power
CEG / AMZN · Amazon–Constellation 20-year PPA at Calvert Cliffs (announced Wednesday; this is our first coverage)
The deal: a 20-year power purchase agreement for 690 MW from Calvert Cliffs (1,790 MW), including a 190 MW power increase (uprate) coming online in 2030–32. There’s also a retail supply agreement covering Amazon’s operations across the 13-state PJM grid.
Investment: more than $3B, also supporting a 20-year license renewal. Without it, the two units would retire in 2034 and 2036.
Desk math: existing fleet vs. new build.
Calvert Cliffs: $3B secures about 1,980 MW (existing plus uprate) for another 20 years, roughly $1.5/W.
Korea framework: new build implied about $12.7/W.
That’s about an 8x difference in capital cost per watt. This is rough math, since the $3B also covers life-extension work. But the direction is clear: the cheapest new nuclear capacity is keeping existing reactors running longer and running them harder.
Equities
BWXT: $134.86 · ▼ 1.41%. It printed a new 52-week low of $131.86, below Tuesday’s $133.21, on 1.62M shares, and gave back the entire Investor Day reversal: Tuesday close $138.01, now −2.3%. Down 2.61% on the week and 44.2% below its 52-week high. The stock trades at ~22.5x its 2030 free cash flow target midpoint. Consensus target $217.69 (+61.4%).
OKLO: $35.87 · ▼ 0.75%. Range 35.65–37.46 on 9.48M shares, the heaviest volume of the week. 4.3% above its 52-week low of $34.38. Down 5.70% on the week. Market cap $6.67B.
SMR: $7.75 · ▼ 0.51%. Range 7.61–8.05 on 25.8M shares. 7.5% above its 52-week low of $7.21. Down 7.96% on the week, the worst in our coverage.
Read: this week ranked the nuclear sector by business model.
Utilities with existing reactors sell the cheapest new capacity: 20-year contracts, low cost per watt, revenue this decade.
New-build suppliers like BWXT and Westinghouse have backlogs and 2030 targets but sit closer to the construction risk.
Developers have neither cash flow nor binding contracts, and are funded by share sales.
The market priced the week in that order. The developers fell 6–8%, BWXT hit a new low while holding a $8.4B backlog, and every headline that helped reactor owners skipped the pre-revenue names.
05 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
Thursday 10/1 verified closes. Friday closes not verified at publication; the Nasdaq rose 1.19% and touched a record intraday high, led by Nvidia.
LITE: $1,045.78 · ▲ 7.67%. Range 966.00–1,078.04 on 7.55M shares. 3.7% below its 52-week high of 1,085.68. Up 183.7% YTD. Up 11.1% week-to-date through Thursday.
COHR: $319.19 · ▲ 10.90%. Up 72.9% YTD. Up 7.9% week-to-date through Thursday.
CIEN: $379.14 · ▲ 7.77%. Up 62.1% YTD, but 40.5% below its 52-week high of $637.51.
GLW: $160.42 · ▲ 4.33%. Up 83.2% YTD.
The pricing signal. Deutsche Bank’s Q4 “Fresh Money” list (via MarketWatch, 10/1) says Lumentum’s advanced 200G lasers are “sold out for the foreseeable future,” at roughly twice the previous generation’s selling price. That’s a pricing signal on a single component, on top of fiscal Q1 revenue guidance of $1.225–1.275B and a 39.5–40.5% operating margin guide.
Other AI-demand signals this week: Micron guided fiscal Q1 revenue to $61.5B vs. $57B consensus. Nebius and CoreWeave reportedly raised Nvidia GPU rental prices by up to 21%. Oracle reportedly signed a $7B AI compute deal with Tencent.
Read: across lasers, memory and GPU rentals, sellers are raising prices. The difference from nuclear is timing: optics shortages hit the income statement this quarter, while nuclear demand hits it in 2030–32. In a week with a 5.6% 30-year yield, that difference in timing explains the gap in returns.
06 · Week in Review (9/25 close → 10/2 close)
Macro
S&P 500: ≈ −0.3% · Dow ≈ −1.3% · Nasdaq ≈ +0.5%
US 10-year: ≈ +10 bp to ~5.28%, after touching its highest since 2002 midweek
Data: PCE soft (headline 3.4% y/y), ISM 54.5 with prices up 6.8 points, payrolls +29K
Nuclear basket (week)
SMR: −7.96%
OKLO: −5.70%
LEU: −5.30%
CCJ: −3.28%
BWXT: −2.61% · new 52-week lows Tuesday and Friday
UEC: −1.17%
Five-name basket: −4.14% · six names including LEU: −4.34%
Physical uranium
Spot: $89.61 → $89.59, flat
SPUT discount: −11.72% → −11.69%, a round trip through −13.63%
Q3 final: 0 of 63 sessions at a premium
Photonics (through Thursday)
LITE: +11.1% · COHR: +7.9%
The headlines that defined the week:
Mon: Crane restart environmental review completed (CEG)
Tue: UEC fiscal-year results; BWXT 2030 targets; NRC issues the Clinch River BWRX-300 construction permit (GEV/TVA)
Wed: General Matter files an enrichment license application; Amazon–Constellation 20-year PPA; U.S.–Korea framework for up to $120B (eight reactors)
Thu: Bernstein initiates on optics; BWXT wins a $189M naval fuel contract; Deutsche Bank’s sold-out 200G lasers call
Fri: payrolls +29K
The week’s lesson: the most nuclear-positive policy and financing week of the year produced a 4% decline in our basket. Fundamentals and funding moved forward, and long-term yields set the price anyway.
07 · Catalyst Calendar
TBD: formal signing of the U.S.–Korea framework (CCJ, BEP)
Oct (TBD): possible public IPO filing for Westinghouse (CCJ, BEP)
Oct (TBD): Holtec keeps its IPO registration on file and could relaunch within 3–6 months of its 9/17 postponement
Oct 20–21: World Nuclear Supply Chain conference, Manila
Late Oct: FOMC decision; hike odds reduced after today’s payrolls
Fri 10/30: Cameco Q3 results (CCJ)
Mon 11/2, after close: BWX Technologies Q3 results
Early Nov (estimated): LEU (~11/4), SMR and LITE (~11/5), OKLO (~11/10)
Fri 11/6: October jobs report
08 · Desk Read: What We’re Watching into Next Week
i. The 30-year yield is effectively the price of the sector. A payrolls miss that took an October hike off the table still produced a 3.2% average fade, because the long end rose. Until the 30-year breaks meaningfully below ~5.5%, we expect rallies in long-duration nuclear names to be sold. The jobs number answered the Fed question; it didn’t answer the term-premium question.
ii. Reactor owners are being paid first. Amazon is paying to extend and uprate an existing plant at ~$1.5/W, while new builds price at ~$12.7/W. This week ranked the sector by business model: reactor owners first, then the supply chain, then developers. BWXT, the supply chain’s highest-quality name, sits at a 52-week low at ~22.5x 2030 free cash flow. We’d watch it into the Nov. 2 print as the cleanest test of whether the market will pay for a 2030 plan at today’s yields.
iii. SPUT’s discount has round-tripped, and the next move tells us which way sentiment is going. Back to −11.69% in four sessions is a sharp recovery. A further move toward −10% would put the trust within range of buying uranium again. That would add a financial buyer to the spot market just as utilities are reportedly balking at a $96 long-term price. Both buyers returning together would tighten the market quickly.
Corrections to Edition 005 (Thursday 10/1 closes):
LITE closed at $1,045.78 (+7.67%); we published the 10:56 AM print and flagged the close as unverified.
COHR closed +10.90% ($319.19), CIEN +7.77% ($379.14) and GLW +4.33% ($160.42), vs. our late-session approximations of +10.2%, +6.5% and +3.9%.
Method
SPUT-implied spot = market value of U3O8 held ÷ pounds held.
$/lb at market = unit price ÷ pounds per unit (0.2374 lb), excluding cash.
Baskets are equal-weighted simple averages of verified closes. The nuclear basket is CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. Weekly figures run from the 9/25 close to the 10/2 close.
Index weekly changes are derived from verified daily closes.
Calvert Cliffs $/W = $3B ÷ (1,790 MW + 190 MW). Korea framework $/W uses approximate standard unit ratings. Both are rough comparisons, not disclosed figures.
Where a close was not verified at publication, the line shows the last verified print with its stamp.
For informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures come from third-party sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed; verify before acting. Past performance does not indicate future results.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Monday 10/5, post-close