Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 019 · Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
CEG rose +4.60% to $270.74, back above its $267.62 close of 10/5, the day before Google’s reactor deal. It’s the first tracked name to lose that level and then win it back, and it retook first place in the ranking. Power generators rallied with it (VST +3.9%, NRG +2.0%) while the utilities sector barely moved (+0.3%). Inside the basket, SMR and LEU still closed at their lowest levels in a year. After the bell, META raised the low end of its 2026 capex range to $135B.
The S&P (+0.58%) rose for a third straight session to its highest close since 10/13. The Nasdaq rose +1.05% and the SOX +1.96%. The Dow rose +0.69% to its highest close since 9/4. SpaceX rose +7.8% after its earnings, and Super Micro raised its fiscal Q1 revenue outlook to $18.5–19.5B from $14.5–15.5B. The 10-yr rose 3bp to 5.15%. Brent briefly traded near $110 after reports of an attack on an Aramco field.
The five-name nuclear basket rose +0.58%, exactly matching the S&P, but the spread inside it was about 6 points. CEG +4.60% and CCJ +1.88% led. SMR −1.43% and LEU −0.88% set new lowest closes. Optics rose +3.44%, led by CRDO (+6.28%) and CIEN (+5.67%), which both had their highest closes since 10/13.
Three takeaways
CEG moved back above its 10/5 close, and the market bought generators, not utilities. CEG +4.6%, VST +3.9% and NRG +2.0%, against XLU +0.3%. That points to buying tied to AI power demand, not a rotation into defensive stocks. Volume was below average (CEG 0.85×), so we’d want to see it hold.
The ranking now has CEG back on top. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~10%, BWXT ~−2%, CCJ ~−98%, UEC ~−191%, LEU ~−262%, OKLO ~−319%, SMR ~−641%. The groups held for a twelfth session: owners and suppliers, then fuel, then developers. The gap between the best and worst names is widening.
META’s capex guidance implies a large Q4. It has spent $85.8B through Q3, so a 2026 range of $135–145Bimplies roughly $49–59B of capex in Q4. Q3 was $34.9B, so that would be up about 41–70%. META rose about 4% in early after-hours trading. The nuclear names barely moved in thin trading (OKLO +0.3%, SMR +0.4%).
Key numbers
Nuclear basket +0.58%. S&P +0.58%. Gap 0bp. Range inside the basket: CEG +4.60% to SMR −1.43%
CEG $270.74, +1.2% above its 10/5 close. Market cap about $96B
Lowest closes in a year: SMR $5.50 · LEU $108.91. Neither broke Tuesday’s intraday low
Optics +3.44%. CRDO +6.28% · CIEN +5.67%
META 2026 capex guidance $135–145B (was $130–145B). Q3 capex $34.91B
SPUT discount −12.59% (Tuesday data). Implied spot ~$90.02/lb
10-yr 5.15% (+3bp) · VIX 16.68 (−3.6%)
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 52,856.09, +360.21 (+0.69%), its highest close since 9/4
S&P 500 7,757.17, +44.60 (+0.58%), its third straight gain and highest close since 10/13
Nasdaq Composite 26,702.86, +278.04 (+1.05%)
Russell 2000 2,781.02, +7.60 (+0.27%)
AI and chips:
The SOX rose +1.96%. NVDA rose +2.54% to $221.97, MU +1.96% to $913.67 and TSM +1.60% to $431.89.
Super Micro raised its fiscal Q1 revenue outlook to $18.5–19.5B, from $14.5–15.5B, and its gross margin outlook to 12–12.5%.
Movers:
SpaceX rose +7.79% to $159.31 after its Q3 report. Musk said SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss a potential merger.
NFLX fell about 4–5% after Q4 revenue guidance of $13.44B, below the $13.51B expected.
Cybersecurity names rose 5–7%. AT&T fell about 6%.
Power: VST rose +3.87% to $156.14 and NRG +2.00% to $99.80. XLU rose only +0.29%.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 5.15% (+3bp).
Volatility: VIX closed at 16.68, down 3.6%.
Oil: Brent traded near $110 after reports of an attack on an Aramco field. December WTI closed at $97.60 (−0.22%).
After the bell:
META: Q3 revenue was $64.60B (+26% y/y), above its own $61–64B guidance range. Q3 capex, including finance leases, was $34.91B, up from $19.37B a year ago. It narrowed its 2026 capex range to $135–145B and gave no 2027 figure, saying only that it expects to keep investing aggressively in AI. The stock was up about 4–6% in after-hours trading.
TSLA was roughly flat after its report.
02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
CEG $270.74, +4.60%.
It opened at $266.47 (+3.0%) and reached $273.21. Range $263.12–$273.21.
It closed $3.12 above its 10/5 close, the first tracked name to get back above that level after falling below it. It is the only tracked name above it.
Market cap is about $96B, up from about $92B. Volume was 2.79M, about 0.85× its 50-day average. YTD −23.4%.
It beat XLU by about 431bp. We found no company release behind the move.
BWXT $135.11, +0.65%.
Range $134.41–$137.80. It closed 24 cents below its 10/5 close. Volume was about 0.7× average. YTD −21.8%.
OKLO $27.73, +0.91%.
Range $27.52–$28.54. Volume was 5.99M, about 0.6× average and the lightest of the run. YTD −61.4%.
SMR $5.50, −1.43%.
It opened at $5.67 and closed near its $5.46 low, its lowest close in a year. It held above Tuesday’s $5.33 intraday low.
Volume was 27.2M, about 0.8× average. YTD −61.2%. Since 10/6, −31.4%.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
CCJ $82.02, +1.88%.
Range $81.50–$82.91. It never traded below $81.50, and it closed at its highest level since 10/15.
Volume was 2.74M, about 0.9× average. YTD −10.4%.
UEC $7.90, +0.89%.
It opened at $8.08 and closed 2.2% below that. Volume was about 0.7× average. YTD −32.4%.
LEU $108.91, −0.88%.
It opened at $112.23 and closed 3.0% below that, at its lowest close in a year. It held above Tuesday’s $106.00 intraday low.
It is 45.4% below the $199.64 offering price. YTD −55.1%.
URA $35.55, +1.05%. YTD −16.8%.
SPUT
Tuesday 10/20 print:
NAV $21.61 (unchanged). Price $18.89. Discount −12.59%, matching our estimate.
Implied spot about $90.02/lb, flat.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) closed at $18.86 (−0.16%) on only about 6K units, very light trading. If NAV held at $21.61, the discount would be about −12.7% (our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $79.44/lb.
What this means: the discount has held between −12.6% and −13.2% for four sessions after narrowing from the −15.51% low on 10/14. NAV has been flat for three sessions.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
CRDO $182.28, +6.28%.
It opened +7.3% at $184.09 and reached $189.88. It closed at its highest level since 10/13. YTD +26.7%.
CIEN $361.34, +5.67%.
It opened +3.7% and closed 1.9% above its open, near the $363.90 high. It closed at its highest level since 10/13. YTD +54.5%.
LITE $850.70, +3.43%.
It opened at $863.14 (+4.9%) and reached $878.90, then closed 1.4% below its open. YTD +130.8%.
It is 25.6% below its $1,143.00 record.
COHR $237.53, +2.47%.
It opened +3.7% and closed 1.2% below its open. YTD +28.7%.
GLW $134.92, +2.01%.
Volume was 8.19M, about 1.0× average. YTD +54.1%.
AAOI $77.32, +0.76%.
It opened at $80.92 (+5.4%) and closed 4.4% below that, the biggest fade from the open in the group. YTD +121.8%.
The pattern: the group opened up about 4.8% on average, and most names gave back some of that gain during the session. CIEN was the exception. The two names that sell into AI networking interconnect, CRDO and CIEN, led.
Since 10/6: the six names are down −25.3% on average, against −20.1% for the nuclear basket.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: SPUT print for 10/21. After-hours follow-through on META and TSLA
Late Oct: GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Oct 27–28: FOMC. Market pricing favors a hold, with hikes priced for December and March
Oct 29: AMZN Q3
Oct 30: CCJ Q3
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
06 · Desk Read
i. CEG’s rebound looked like a bid for power generators, not a move into defensive utilities. XLU rose only 0.3%, while CEG, VST and NRG rose 2–5%. Last Friday and Tuesday, CEG fell while utilities rose. Today it was the reverse. That fits our read from the past week that CEG trades with the AI-power group, and today that group was bought. Two caveats: CEG traded on below-average volume (0.85×), and we found no company news. One session above $267.62 doesn’t establish a trend, but it is the first break in a nine-session slide (CEG’s high close was 300.40 on 10/6).
ii. The basket matched the S&P, but the names inside it split further apart. The basket rose exactly as much as the S&P (+0.58%). Inside it, the spread was about 6 points. CEG and CCJ rallied, while SMR and LEU closed at their lowest levels in a year. The groups held for a twelfth session. The gap between the best name (CEG ~+10%) and the worst (SMR ~−641%) is now about 651 points, the widest we’ve recorded. The market keeps paying for power generation that earns cash today and keeps selling the reactors that won’t generate revenue for years.
iii. META supplied the first big-tech capex number since the selloff. Its 2026 range now starts at $135B. It has spent $85.8B through Q3, so that implies about $49–59B in Q4, against $34.9B in Q3. Every dollar of that spend needs power to run. The first after-hours reaction was muted outside META (OKLO +0.3%, SMR +0.4%, VST +0.2%, in thin trading). Tomorrow’s open will show whether a bigger capex number lifts power names again or only the chip and optics names.
Corrections
10/20 revisions in the consolidated data: AAOI opened at $75.00 (−4.1%), not $74.81 (−4.3%). CEG’s low was $257.75 and CIEN’s low $328.88. None of this changes the conclusions.
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. “Lowest close since” and YTD figures use daily closes over the trailing year; the YTD base is the 12/31/2025 close. CEG’s market value is scaled from its 10/12 reported cap. META’s implied Q4 capex = 2026 guidance range − capex reported through Q3; both include finance-lease principal as reported. After-hours prices are early, thinly traded prints. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Thursday 10/22, post-close