Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 034 · Thursday, November 12, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
Nvidia said before the open that Jensen Huang had resigned as CEO, effective immediately. The AI trade fell sharply at the open and won most of it back by the close. The nuclear names didn’t. NVDA opened −13.1% and closed −4.34%. Every optics name finished well off its low. The nuclear basket fell −4.84%, and four of its five names closed at or near the day’s low. CEG went the other way: it rose +2.79% to $282.40, about where it traded all day’s high.
The major indices ended almost flat after opening lower: S&P −0.35%, Nasdaq −0.39%, Dow −0.36%. Small caps fell further (Russell −1.62%). The cash bond market reopened after Veterans Day and the 10-yr rose about 10bp to 5.10%. Gold fell −3.1% and bitcoin −3.5%. In uranium, the SPUT units fell −3.8% on 3.8× normal volume.
Three takeaways
The pattern reversed. Over the past month, when AI news was good, optics rose far more than nuclear. Today the AI news was a shock, and nuclear fell more than twice as much as optics (basket −4.84% against an optics average of −2.07%). Optics bounced 5–10% off their lows. The nuclear names stayed at theirs.
CEG is pulling away from the rest of the group. For the third session running, its low held just above the 10/5 close: $268.00 against $267.62. It then rallied to finish near its high. CEG now keeps ~+45% of Tuesday 10/6’s gain, up from +22% yesterday. The rest of the group is far behind: BWXT ~−110%, CCJ ~−283%, LEU ~−301%, UEC ~−336%, OKLO ~−447%, SMR ~−844%. CCJ moved ahead of LEU. Owners still lead, then fuel, then developers, for a twenty-eighth session.
The SPUT discount may be at a record. Wednesday’s official NAV was $21.73 (−0.73%) and the discount −14.69%. Today’s U.U close of $17.84 against that NAV puts the discount at about −17.9% (estimate). Our previous record was −16.36% on 11/5.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket −4.84% · S&P −0.35% · Optics −2.07% · SOX −0.54%
NVDA $166.19 (−4.34%). Intraday low $148.80 (−14.35%). Volume 5.6× average
CEG $282.40 (+2.79%), 5.5% above its 10/5 close
10-yr 5.10% (+10.5bp) · VIX 18.96 (+8.4%) · Gold about $3,878 (−3.1%)
SPUT NAV $21.73 (Wednesday). Implied spot ~$90.57/lb. Discount about −17.9% (est.)
LITE–MRVL deal spread 18.5%, wider than yesterday’s 17.2%
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 52,297.09 (−0.36%)
S&P 500 7,592.40 (−0.35%)
Nasdaq Composite 25,366.09 (−0.39%)
Russell 2000 2,800.04 (−1.62%)
Nvidia:
The announcement (8:48am ET): Jensen Huang resigned as president, CEO and director. CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO and stays CFO. Harvey C. Jones became board chair.
Background: the board opened an independent investigation on 11/8 and had accepted the resignation on 11/11. No reason was given.
Earnings: Q3 results are still scheduled for Tue 11/17.
The stock: NVDA opened at $150.99, hit a low of $148.80 at 9:31am, and closed at $166.19 (−4.34%) on 5.6× average volume. YTD −10.9%.
AI rotation:
Gainers: AMD +5.86% ($585.30) and Broadcom +5.54% ($364.36).
Decliners: CoreWeave −6.86% ($56.60, a day after +24.7%) and Nebius −16.84% (it pushed back its $7B annual sales-pace target to February). MU −1.59%, TSM −1.87%.
The SOX fell −0.54%, after being down about 3.7% at its low.
Rates: the 10-yr rose +10.5bp to 5.10% in the first cash session since Tuesday’s CPI.
Economic data:
Initial jobless claims were 200K (+9K).
October existing-home sales fell −5.5% to a 3.75M annual pace, the lowest since August 2010.
Volatility: VIX closed at 18.96 (+8.4%).
Commodities and crypto: gold about $3,878 (−3.1%), December WTI $88.92 (+2.8%), bitcoin about $71.3K (−3.5%).
02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
CEG $282.40, +2.79%.
Range $268.00–$282.66. Its low held 38 cents above the 10/5 close, and it finished 26 cents below its high.
YTD −20.1%. It was the only tracked nuclear name to rise.
BWXT $124.01, −1.33%. Volume was 0.48× average, the lightest in the basket. YTD −28.3%.
OKLO $24.44, −5.49%. Range $23.81–$25.43. It is +31.9% above last Thursday’s low. YTD −65.9%.
SMR $5.23 → $4.81, −8.03%.
It closed one cent above its $4.80 low, and is +12.4% above last Thursday’s low.
It was the basket’s worst performer. YTD −66.1%.
Power peers: VST +0.77%, NRG +0.58%, GE Vernova +1.27% (it traded as high as $842), XLU flat, Bloom Energy −3.58%.
Fermi (FRMI) rose +13.8% after signing agreements for an initial 600 MW of data-center power with an unnamed hyperscaler. The deal includes a $200M prepayment.
Small-cap nuclear (outside our coverage): Standard Nuclear (STDN) fell −12.2% after Q3: revenue $6.0M, net loss $13.1M, backlog $577.2M. NANO Nuclear (NNE) fell −4.3%.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
LEU $104.03, −7.26%.
Range $103.91–$110.00, closing 12 cents above its low.
+22.6% above last Thursday’s low. YTD −57.1%.
UEC $6.80, −5.95%. It closed 2 cents above its low, and is +11.1% above last Thursday’s low. YTD −41.8%.
CCJ $71.79, −3.40%. Range $71.20–$73.73. +8.7% above last Thursday’s low. YTD −21.5%.
URA $32.35, −3.82%. YTD −24.3%.
SPUT
Wednesday 11/11 print:
NAV $21.73 (−0.73%), the biggest one-day NAV drop in our recent log.
Discount −14.69% (narrower, because the units rose while NAV fell).
Implied spot about $90.57/lb.
Today: the units (TSX: U.U) fell −3.78% to $17.84 on 3.77× average volume.
Against Wednesday’s NAV, the discount is about −17.9% (estimate). That would be wider than the −16.36% record from 11/5.
At market, the units value uranium at about $75/lb.
What this means: NAV is down 2.3% from its 10/30 peak ($22.25), and implied spot is down from $92.74 to $90.57. Today the units fell far more than the spot-linked NAV. If tonight’s print confirms the gap, it is the widest discount in our log.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
AAOI $52.85, −5.39%. Low $50.80. YTD +51.6%.
LITE $624.65, −3.61%.
Low $591.17 (−8.8%). YTD +69.5%.
Deal spread: 4.5 × MRVL’s $164.45 close = $740.03 of implied value. LITE closed 18.5% below that, wider than 17.2% on Wednesday.
CRDO $139.81, −1.13%. Low $132.00 (−6.7%). YTD −2.8%.
COHR $232.16, −1.00%. Low $210.08 (−10.4%). YTD +25.8%.
GLW $119.56, −0.75%. Low $112.68 (−6.5%). YTD +36.5%.
CIEN $294.37, −0.56%. Low $278.63 (−5.9%). YTD +25.9%.
MRVL $164.45, −2.58%. Low $155.97.
The pattern: every optics name opened 5–10% lower and closed 0.6–5.4% lower. That is a recovery of 4 to 9 percentage points from the low, on volume below average (0.55–0.96×). The selling stopped within the first hour.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: Cisco and Applied Materials report after the close. SPUT print for 11/12.
Fri 11/13, 8:30am: October PPI
Tue 11/17: NVDA Q3, the first report under interim CEO Kress
Nov 30 close: MSCI index changes take effect
December FOMC: a hike is still on the table. The 10-yr is at 5.10%.
Levels to watch:
CEG’s 10/5 close ($267.62), tested three days running
Last Thursday’s lows: OKLO $18.53, SMR $4.28, LEU $84.86, CCJ $66.06, UEC $6.12, BWXT $112.55
06 · Desk Read
i. The nuclear names fall more on bad AI news than they rise on good news. On Wednesday, optics rose +10.1% and nuclear +1.1%. Today the AI news was a shock, and nuclear fell −4.84% against −2.07% for optics. In the AI names, the buying came back within an hour. In nuclear, the lows were the closes. Over these two sessions, nuclear moved the least when AI was rising and the most when it was falling. The developers (SMR −8.0%, OKLO −5.5%) and LEU (−7.3%) took the biggest hits. They are the most speculative, and their AI-driven demand is the furthest away.
ii. CEG is trading on its own fundamentals. CEG rose +2.8% on a day the basket fell −4.8%, a 7.6-point gap. Over three sessions it tested its 10/5 level and held each time. It now keeps +45% of 10/6’s gain. The other generators (VST, NRG, GE Vernova) also rose. The market is drawing a clear line: power plants already running and contracted are being bought, while new reactors and fuel supply are being sold. The ranking has held for 28 sessions and is getting more extreme.
iii. Uranium sold off in both the stocks and the trust. Gold fell −3.1%, bitcoin −3.5%, and the 10-yr rose 10bp. On that kind of day, SPUT units fell −3.8% on almost 4× normal volume. A wider discount can come from a falling spot price or from investors selling the trust outright. Today it was mostly selling: NAV moved −0.73% on Wednesday, against −3.8% for the units today. Tonight’s print shows whether the discount sets a new record.
Corrections
None. Edition 033’s 11/11 closes match the final data.
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Deal spread = (4.5 × MRVL close) ÷ LITE close − 1. Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. The estimated discount = today’s U.U close ÷ the latest published NAV − 1. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Friday 11/13, post-close (with Week in Review)