Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 030 · Friday, November 6, 2026 · Post-close · Week in Review
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
The nuclear basket had its best day of the run, +10.80%, and Thursday’s lows held. OKLO rose +22.66% after a narrower-than-expected Q3 loss and $3.13B of cash. LEU rose +17.49% and SMR +16.25%. Every basket name closed near its high, on above-average volume. Power generators bounced too (VST +10.6%, NRG +9.6%, CEG +4.3%), and optics rose +6.92%. Physical uranium told a different story. SPUT’s official discount hit −16.36% on Thursday, the widest in our log, and the units barely moved today.
The October jobs report came in strong: payrolls rose +165K, against roughly 65–70K expected, unemployment fell to 4.1%, and the prior two months were revised up by a combined 84K. That kept a December rate hike in play, and the 10-yr rose 2bp to 4.86%. The S&P rose +0.31%, the Nasdaq +1.09% and the SOX +4.21%, while the Dow fell −0.46%. The VIX eased to 25.64 (−9%). Even with Friday’s bounce, the S&P had its worst week since June (−2.68%).
Three takeaways
Thursday’s selloff got its follow-through. On 10/23 we said a washout low would need a day of 2× volume closing at the lows, followed by a session that holds above those lows. Thursday delivered the first part. Today delivered the second: no name broke its Thursday low, and closes came within about 0–2% of the highs. OKLO traded 2.5× its average volume, NRG 2.7× and BWXT 1.7×. A sequence like this often marks a low. One day doesn’t prove it.
The developers led on their own earnings. OKLO (Q3 out 11/5 after the close) and SMR (11/5) both rose 16–23%, while CEG and BWXT rose about 4%. That’s the reverse of the run’s usual daily order. The cumulative ranking barely changed, and LEU moved past UEC. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~−54%, BWXT ~−153%, CCJ ~−291%, LEU ~−296%, UEC ~−320%, OKLO ~−481%, SMR ~−765%.
The physical vehicle didn’t bounce with the equities. NAV sits at $22.06, flat for the week. The units rose only +0.33% today while the equities rose 4–23%, which leaves the discount at about −16.1% (estimate).
Key numbers
Nuclear basket +10.80% today, −8.2% for the week · S&P +0.31% today, −2.68% for the week
OKLO +22.66% · LEU +17.49% · SMR +16.25% · UEC +6.79% · CCJ +4.35% · BWXT +3.97%
Rebound from Thursday’s lows: OKLO +27% · LEU +23% · SMR +19%
SPUT official discount −16.36% on Thursday, the widest in our log. NAV $22.06. Implied spot ~$91.93/lb
Payrolls +165K, against about 65–70K expected · Unemployment 4.1%
Optics +6.92% today, −21.9% for the week · VIX 25.64 · 10-yr 4.86%
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 51,285.73 (−0.46%)
S&P 500 7,376.86 (+0.31%)
Nasdaq Composite 24,579.42 (+1.09%)
Russell 2000 2,754.11 (+0.89%)
Jobs (October):
Payrolls rose +165K, against about 65–70K expected.
Unemployment fell to 4.1%.
August and September were revised up by a combined +84K.
The strong report kept a December Fed hike in play.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.86% (+2bp).
Chips:
The SOX rose +4.21% after Thursday’s −12.25%.
AMD rose about 10%, TSM +6.33%, MU +5.12% (to $690.00) and NVDA +2.78% (to $186.64, roughly flat YTD).
Volatility: VIX closed at 25.64 (−9.0%). Reports said a gauge of volatility-of-volatility jumped about 70% on Thursday, a move seen only eight times since 1991.
Oil: December WTI was about $90.50, flat on the day. Brent stayed below $100.
Power:
VST rose +10.55% to $124.80 and NRG +9.61% to $88.29, on 1.9× and 2.7× average volume.
XLU fell −0.39%.
02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
OKLO $23.55, +22.66%.
Range $20.86–$24.03. Volume was 2.5× its 50-day average. It is 27.1% above Thursday’s $18.53 low. YTD −67.2%.
Q3 results (released 11/5 after the close, with the call before Friday’s open):
Net loss was $41.7M, narrower than expected and helped by interest income. Revenue was $1.86M.
Cash was $3.13B, up from $3.0B at the end of June. It raised $2.3B through at-the-market stock sales in the first three quarters.
At its Idaho reactor site, construction has moved into structural work. DOE approved the preliminary safety analysis, and the target is to be operating in 2028–29.
It reserved large-component manufacturing capacity with U.S. Forged Rings for 2030–35. The Meta campus deal (up to 1.2 GW in Ohio) is not yet binding.
SMR $5.08, +16.25%.
It closed a cent below its $5.09 high, 18.7% above Thursday’s low. YTD −64.1%.
That followed Thursday’s Q3: revenue of $281K, EPS of −$0.11 (against −$0.12 expected), $1.90B of cash, and the Doosan fabrication agreement.
CEG $249.95, +4.30%.
Range $243.38–$252.72. Volume was about 1.6× average. YTD −29.2%.
Q3 is due around 11/9, the first report from a power generator since the election.
BWXT $119.52, +3.97%.
Volume was about 1.7× average. It is −8.6% for the week, despite the strong quarter. YTD −30.8%.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
LEU $104.60, +17.49%.
Range $93.00–$106.86. It is 23.3% above Thursday’s $84.86 low, and back above $100.
Volume was about 1.6× average. For the week, +1.3%, the only tracked nuclear name up for the week. YTD −56.9%.
UEC $6.92, +6.79%. YTD −40.8%. For the week, −10.3%.
CCJ $71.30, +4.35%.
It closed near its $71.59 high and ended five straight days of new lows.
Volume was about 1.5× average. YTD −22.1%. For the week, −7.3%.
URA $32.34, +4.39%. Volume was about 1.9× average. YTD −24.3%.
SPUT
Thursday 11/5 print:
NAV $22.06 (−0.03%). Discount −16.36%, the widest in our log, wider than the −15.51% of 10/14. Our estimate was −16.4%.
Implied spot about $91.93/lb.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) rose only +0.33% to $18.51. If NAV held at $22.06, the discount would be about −16.1% (our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $77.97/lb.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
COHR $192.81, +13.58%. Volume was about 2.2× average. YTD +4.5%.
CRDO $120.51, +7.28%. YTD −16.2%.
AAOI $50.13, +6.91%. YTD +43.8%.
LITE $538.59, +5.67%.
YTD +46.1%.
Deal spread: 4.5 × MRVL’s $141.20 close = $635.40 of implied value. LITE closed 18.0% below that, roughly unchanged from Thursday.
CIEN $243.39, +5.45%. YTD +4.1%.
GLW $106.13, +2.61%. YTD +21.2%.
MRVL $141.20, +5.73%.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: SPUT print for 11/6
~Mon 11/9: CEG Q3
Next week: a retest of Thursday’s lows is the key level to watch: OKLO $18.53, SMR $4.28, LEU $84.86, CCJ $66.06, UEC $6.12, BWXT $112.55
Dec FOMC: after the jobs report, a hike is still a possibility
06 · Desk Read
i. Here’s the two-day pattern we described on 10/23. On Thursday the market sold everything on heavy volume (2–3× average), with closes near the lows. On Friday every name held above those lows and closed near its high, again on heavy volume. That’s the classic shape of a washout. We don’t make calls. What would confirm it is a retest next week that holds above Thursday’s lows. What would undo it is a close below those levels. The basket is still −24.9% below its 10/5 close.
ii. The developers’ earnings landed well after the worst day. OKLO showed a narrower loss, $3.1B of cash, a reactor build moving into structural work and DOE safety approval. SMR showed $1.9B of cash and a fabrication agreement. Neither company changed its funding outlook. Both stocks bounced 16–23%. The day’s order ran opposite to the run’s usual pattern, with the developers ahead of CEG and BWXT. The cumulative ranking barely moved, though. One strong day doesn’t undo four weeks.
iii. The physical vehicle’s discount is now the widest in our log. SPUT closed Thursday at a −16.36% discount, and the units barely bounced today while the equities rose 4–23%. NAV is $22.06, flat for the week, and implied spot of about $92 is near the highs in our log. So uranium itself is firm, while the vehicle trades at its largest discount of the run. In the 10/27 rebound, the vehicle led. This time the equities did. The −16.36% discount is the number we’re watching for whether the selling is finished across all the ways to own uranium.
07 · Week in Review (11/2–11/6)
What happened each day
Mon 11/2: basket −3.80%, optics −8.62%. Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum. CCJ set a new low.
Tue 11/3: basket +0.16%, optics +3.54%. BWXT rose after its results. Election day.
Wed 11/4: basket −4.85%, optics −7.64%. Democrats won both chambers, and Texas’s governor-elect has called for a pause on new data centers. VST and NRG fell about 14%. LEU reported Q3.
Thu 11/5: basket −9.59%, optics −16.40%. AI liquidation: S&P −4.36%, SOX −12.25%, VIX +70%. SMR and OKLO reported.
Fri 11/6: basket +10.80%, optics +6.92%. The jobs report was strong, and the follow-through test passed.
The week, from Friday 10/30 to today
Indices: S&P −2.68% (worst week since June) · Dow −0.94% · Nasdaq −3.37% · Russell 2000 −2.05%
Rates and volatility: 10-yr 4.93% → 4.86% · VIX 19.42 → 25.64 (+32%)
Nuclear basket: −8.2%, compounding the daily moves
Nuclear names: LEU +1.3% · URA −4.1% · CEG −4.7% · OKLO −6.7% · CCJ −7.3% · BWXT −8.6% · SMR −9.6% · UEC −10.3%
Optics: −21.9%, compounding the daily moves. LITE −35.9% · AAOI −27.4% · CIEN −24.1% · CRDO −20.2% · GLW −13.9% · COHR −8.3%
AI and power: SOX −12.2% · MU −22.0% · MRVL −28.1% · NVDA −8.8% · VST −9.8% · NRG −8.1% · XLU −0.7%
SPUT: units −4.6%. NAV $22.25 → $22.06. The discount went from −12.77% to −16.36% (a record) and is about −16.1% today (estimate).
Four weeks since 10/9
Nuclear basket −24.2%
Optics −44.5%
What we learned this week
An election result can move the AI-power trade on its own, through data-center permitting.
The deepest liquidation of the run was followed by its strongest one-day bounce.
The developers’ balance sheets ($1.9–3.1B of cash at SMR and OKLO) held up when tested.
Physical uranium stayed firm while the vehicle that holds it traded at a record discount.
Corrections
OKLO’s Q3 date: OKLO reported on 11/5 after the close, not around 11/10 as our calendar showed.
11/5 lows, revised in the consolidated data: UEC $6.12 (not $6.11). LEU $84.86 (not $84.90). BWXT $112.55 (not $112.59).
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. Weekly and four-week basket and optics figures compound the daily moves. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Deal spread = (4.5 × MRVL close) ÷ LITE close − 1. Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
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