Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 026 · Monday, November 2, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum in a $115B all-stock deal, and both stocks fell. LITE dropped −18.59% and MRVL −12.72%, which leaves LITE about 11% below the deal’s implied value. In nuclear, the split between physical uranium and the equities widened further. SPUT’s NAV rose for a fifth straight session, taking implied spot to about $92.74/lb, while CCJ fell another −4.59% to a new low, LEU closed below $95 and the basket fell −3.80%. After the bell, BWXT reported 26% EPS growth and a 59% jump in free cash flow and still traded about −3% lower.
The market gave up an early rally into Tuesday’s midterm elections. The S&P fell −0.51% to its lowest close since 7/31, and the Nasdaq fell −1.07%. The VIX closed at 21.15, its highest close since June. Oil fell about 4.5% after reports of Iran–Qatar talks on a proposal to end the conflict; WTI was about $99 and Brent about $108. The 10-yr fell to 4.89%. Oracle fell −5% after announcing a $10B stock offering and a $10B bond offering, adding to the AI-financing pressure from last week. Utilities rose again, with XLU at its highest close since August.
Three takeaways
The market is pricing real doubt that the deal closes. Each LITE share converts into 4.5 MRVL shares. At today’s MRVL close, that’s worth about $771, and LITE closed at $684.40, an 11.3% gap. Using Friday’s closes, the terms implied a premium of only about 5%. The companies expect to close in the first half of 2028. MRVL is now −27% since the 10/28 report.
The gap between physical uranium and the equities is the widest of the run. NAV is +3.2% since 10/23. CCJ is −12.1% in two sessions since its results, and LEU is now 52.5% below its $199.64 offering price. SPUT’s units fell −2.58% today, which puts the discount at roughly −15.0%, near the −15.51% record from 10/14.
The ranking moved inside the fuel group. UEC passed CCJ as CCJ kept sliding after its quarter. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~−32%, BWXT ~−47%, UEC ~−242%, CCJ ~−254%, LEU ~−374%, OKLO ~−483%, SMR ~−685%. The three groups held for a twentieth session: owners and suppliers, then fuel, then developers.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket −3.80%. S&P −0.51%. The basket is now −20.9% below its 10/5 close
New 52-week lows: CCJ $73.25 · LEU $94.49 · OKLO $23.44 · URA $32.90
SPUT NAV $22.25 (+0.73%, Friday data). Implied spot ~$92.74/lb. Today’s discount about −15.0% (estimate)
Marvell–Lumentum: 4.5 MRVL shares per LITE share, $115B enterprise value, expected to close in 1H 2028
Optics −8.62%. CRDO is now negative YTD (−2.7%)
BWXT Q3: revenue +10%, non-GAAP EPS +26%, free cash flow +59%. Shares about −3% after hours
VIX 21.15 · 10-yr 4.89% · WTI about $99 (−4.6%)
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 51,983.98 (+0.41%)
S&P 500 7,541.40 (−0.51%), its lowest close since 7/31
Nasdaq Composite 25,164.36 (−1.07%), its lowest close since 7/30
Russell 2000 2,805.88 (−0.21%)
Session: stocks opened higher and gave the gains back into the close, a day ahead of Tuesday’s midterms.
Chips:
The SOX fell −3.37% to its lowest close since 4/29.
INTC fell −8.80%, after −29% on Friday. MU fell −5.78%, TSM −1.85% and NVDA −1.26% to $202.06.
AI financing: Oracle fell about −5% after announcing $10B of new stock and $10B of new bonds. That follows META’s $95B equity plan and SpaceX’s $40B of debt.
Apple: revenue was $114.48B against $113.47B expected, and EPS was $2.10 against $2.00. Growth slowed, and the stock was about −2.5% after hours.
Oil: WTI fell about −4.6% to roughly $99, and Brent about −4.5% to roughly $108. The drop followed reports of Iran–Qatar talks on a proposal to end the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Airlines rose.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.89% (−4bp), its lowest since 9/9.
Volatility: VIX closed at 21.15 (+8.9%), its highest close since 6/10.
Power:
XLU rose +0.55% to $43.67, its highest close since 8/20.
VST fell −2.72% to its lowest close in a year. NRG fell −1.50%.
02 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
SPUT
Friday 10/30 print:
NAV $22.25, up +0.73%. That’s the fifth straight gain, and NAV is up 3.2% since 10/23. NAV is +12.41% YTD.
Units $19.41. Discount −12.77%.
Implied spot about $92.74/lb, a new high in our log.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) fell −2.58% to $18.91, on about 1.7× average volume. If NAV held at $22.25, the discount would be about −15.0% (our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $79.65/lb, about $13/lb below implied spot.
Equities
CCJ $73.38, −4.59%.
It set a new 52-week low of $73.25 and closed 13 cents above it, its lowest close in a year.
Volume was about 1.5× its 50-day average. It is −12.1% over the two sessions since its results. YTD −19.8%.
LEU $94.90, −8.12%.
It set a new 52-week low of $94.49 and closed at its lowest level in a year.
It is now 52.5% below the $199.64 offering price. YTD −60.9%. Q3 results are due around 11/4.
UEC $7.51, −2.59%.
It traded up to $8.20 (+6.4%) early and then gave it back. YTD −35.7%.
URA $32.93, −2.37%. It set a new 52-week low of $32.90 and closed at its lowest level in a year. YTD −22.9%.
What this means: physical uranium has risen for five straight sessions, while every way to own it through a listed security has fallen: the producers, the enricher, the ETF, and SPUT’s own units. Two things weighed on the equities. CCJ’s quarter showed how far its contract prices lag spot ($65.78/lb realized). And the market is cutting risk across the board, with the VIX above 21.
03 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
BWXT $130.47, −0.18%.
Range $129.97–$134.34. YTD −24.5%. It was about −3.2% after hours following its results.
Q3, reported after the close:
Revenue was $953.0M (+10%). Headlines put the consensus estimate at about $970M, so revenue missed. Government Operations was $639.1M (+4%) and Commercial Operations $314.2M (+25%).
Non-GAAP EPS was $1.26 (+26%) and GAAP EPS $1.11 (+25%). Adjusted EBITDA was $179.7M (+19%).
Operating cash flow was $202.7M (+42%). Free cash flow was $150.5M (+59%).
2026 guidance: revenue of about $3.8B was reaffirmed. Adjusted EBITDA is about $667M. Non-GAAP EPS was narrowed to $4.72–4.77, and FCF to $350–360M.
Early 2027 outlook: revenue growth in the high single digits, and EBITDA and EPS growth from the high single digits to the low double digits.
Its BANR reactor was selected for the U.S. Army’s Janus Program at Fort Campbell and for Prodigy Clean Energy’s transportable nuclear plant project in Canada.
CEG $257.25, −1.96%.
Range $256.87–$268.64. It traded up to $268.64 (+2.4%) and closed near its low.
It is 3.9% below its 10/5 close. YTD −27.2%. Q3 is due around 11/9.
OKLO $23.52, −6.85%.
It set a new 52-week low of $23.44 and closed at its lowest level in a year.
YTD −67.2%. Since 10/6, −39.0%.
SMR $5.35, −4.80%.
Range $5.32–$5.83. Volume was about 0.7× average. YTD −62.2%. Q3 is due 11/5.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
LITE $684.40, −18.59%.
It opened at $800.02 and fell to $679.00, on 3.2× its 50-day average volume. It closed at its lowest level since 7/29, 40.1% below its $1,143.00 record. YTD +85.7%.
The deal:
Marvell will acquire Lumentum, giving 4.5 MRVL shares per LITE share.
Enterprise value is about $115B, and equity value about $80B (per reports).
It is expected to close in 1H 2028, subject to shareholder and regulatory approval.
Nvidia invested $2B in each company earlier this year.
The spread: at MRVL’s $171.41 close, the deal is worth about $771 per LITE share, so LITE trades about 11.3% below that value. Using Friday’s closes, the deal implied about $884, a 5.1% premium.
MRVL $171.41, −12.72%. It closed at its lowest level since 7/29. It is −27% since the 10/28 report.
CIEN $284.34, −11.34%. It closed at its lowest level since 2/6. YTD +21.6%.
AAOI $62.50, −9.49%. It closed at its lowest level since 2/26. YTD +79.3%.
CRDO $140.02, −7.27%. It closed at its lowest level since 4/13, and is now −2.7% YTD.
COHR $199.95, −4.93%. It closed at its lowest level since 1/26. YTD +8.3%.
GLW $123.20, −0.09%. YTD +40.7%.
Since 10/6: the six optics names are down −38.7% on average, against −25.9% for the nuclear basket.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tue 11/3: U.S. midterm elections
~Wed 11/4: LEU Q3
Thu 11/5: SMR Q3 · LITE Q1 FY27 (timing may change because of the deal)
Fri 11/6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
Pending: GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
06 · Desk Read
i. The Marvell deal doesn’t show the market paying up for optical assets. Two numbers say so. First, the deal implied only about a 5% premium at Friday’s prices. Second, the market has now widened the gap to about 11% while knocking 27% off the buyer’s stock in four sessions. With a close not expected until 1H 2028, that gap is pricing in a long regulatory process and real risk that the deal doesn’t close. Every other optics name fell 0.1–11.3% today. Consolidation didn’t lift the group, and some of the drop was fresh doubt about the economics of AI networking.
ii. Physical uranium and the equities are as far apart as they’ve been in this run. Physical uranium is at a new high in our log (implied spot ~$92.74), and NAV is up five straight sessions. The equities keep making new lows. CCJ is −12% since its print, LEU is more than 50% below its offering price, URA is at a year low, and SPUT’s own units now trade about 15% below the value of the uranium they hold. The market is selling uranium equities as a risk asset while the commodity rises. What would change the picture: LEU’s results (~11/4) giving a firm read on enrichment pricing, or the SPUT discount narrowing back toward −12% while NAV holds.
iii. BWXT is the cleanest test of whether fundamentals are being rewarded right now. The quarter showed EPS +26%, free cash flow +59%, guidance reaffirmed, a new Army reactor selection, and a 2027 outlook for growth in the high single digits to low double digits. The stock was still about −3% after hours, likely on the revenue miss against estimates. If BWXT closes lower tomorrow on numbers like these, that’s strong evidence that the market’s selling in this group isn’t about fundamentals. We’ll check at Tuesday’s close, with the election running in the background.
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. “Basket vs 10/5” is the equal-weight average of each name’s change since its 10/5 close. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Deal spread = (4.5 × MRVL close) ÷ LITE close − 1. Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. After-hours prices were pulled at about 6:30pm ET and are thinly traded. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Tuesday 11/3, post-close