Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
SEQH Capital Research · Trading & Research Desk
Edition 011 · Friday, October 9, 2026 · Post-close · Week in Review
Prices as of 4:00 PM ET close unless stamped otherwise.
The Tape in 60 Seconds
The week ranked the nuclear sector by business model, and by Friday the ranking was clean from top to bottom.
Stocks rallied into the start of earnings season. The S&P 500 rose 0.59% to 7,811.51, just under Tuesday’s record, the Dow added 0.83% and the Nasdaq 0.64%. For the week, the S&P gained 1.15%.
Our five-name nuclear basket rose 0.30% today but finished the week −0.30%, 145 bp behind the S&P. Underneath that small number was the clearest week of the month. Four days after Tuesday’s $11.5B existing-reactor rally, here’s how much of Tuesday’s gain each name kept:
Reactor owner: Constellation kept 93%.
Supply chain: BWXT kept 82%.
Fuel: Cameco 11%, Centrus 8%, UEC −21%.
Developers: Oklo −49% and NuScale −141%. NuScale set its second 52-week low in two days, at $7.07.
That’s a straight line from contracted cash flow to no revenue. The physical uranium trust didn’t hold up: SPUT’s discount went from −8.04% on Tuesday back to −13.28% by Thursday, while spot uranium rose.
Three takeaways:
The market paid for contracted cash and nothing else. CEG (93%) and BWXT (82%) kept almost all their gains; everything without near-term contracted revenue gave them back or worse.
SPUT reversed the whole move. Thursday’s 333 bp widening erased all of Tuesday’s narrowing and then some. Our read that the vehicle was “swinging far less than the stocks” didn’t hold.
Rates set the floor all week. The 10-year hit 5.35% intraday on both Wednesday and Thursday. Next week’s CPI report (Wednesday 10/14) is the next test.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket, week: −0.30% vs. S&P +1.15% · Friday +0.30%
Retention, Tuesday’s gain kept through Friday: CEG 93% · BWXT 82% · SMR −141%
SMR: new 52-week low of $7.07 · OKLO held above Thursday’s $33.70 low
SPUT discount: −13.28% (10/8) · ▼ 333 bp in one session
SPUT-implied spot: $89.80/lb, the second-highest reading in our log
S&P 500: 7,811.51 · 0.09% below Tuesday’s record
01 · Macro Tape
Friday
S&P 500: 7,811.51 · ▲ 46.15 (+0.59%)
Dow Jones: 51,655.01 · ▲ 423.37 (+0.83%)
Nasdaq Composite: 27,366.17 · ▲ 172.83 (+0.64%)
Sector leaders: real estate (+1.85%) and healthcare (+1.48%)
Week (10/2 close → 10/9 close)
S&P 500: +1.15%, with a record close of 7,818.93 on Tuesday
Dow Jones: +0.93%
Nasdaq Composite: +0.64%, with a record close on Monday
Read: stocks bounced as oil eased and tech recovered from Thursday’s selloff. Delta’s disappointing Q3 results kicked off earnings season, with the banks reporting next week. The bigger issue for our sector is that the 10-year topped 5.35% intraday on two separate days this week. The Fed raised rates in September and Governor Waller said Thursday that more hikes are needed. Small-cap, long-duration names are the most exposed to that.
02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
Friday closes
CEG: $298.07 · ▲ 4.56%. Range 286.83–300.98 on 3.78M shares. It recovered 90% of Thursday’s 4.85% drop. Market cap $105.61B.
BWXT: $143.83 · ▲ 1.13%. Range 141.48–144.51 on 786K shares, its lightest volume of the week. Up 6.65% for the week, the best in our basket. Market cap $13.18B, about 24x the midpoint of its 2030 free-cash-flow target.
OKLO: $34.70 · ▲ 0.38%. Range 34.10–35.13 on 7.43M shares, less than half Thursday’s volume. It held above Thursday’s new 52-week low of $33.70. Down 3.26% for the week. Market cap $6.45B.
SMR: $7.20 · ▼ 1.64%. New 52-week low of $7.07, the second in two sessions. Volume 31.7M shares. Down 7.10% for the week and 87.5% below its 52-week high. Market cap $3.09B.
Read: Constellation’s two-day swing (−4.85% Thursday, +4.56% Friday) showed buyers stepping in when the stock dipped, which is what you’d expect for a company that now holds the Google contract. BWXT gained steadily on falling volume, the pattern of a stock being re-rated rather than traded. The developers split. OKLO’s volume fell by half and it held above its low. SMR traded 31.7M shares and still made a new low. That was its fourth straight session above 30M shares; selling there hasn’t let up.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
Physical market: Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U.U / SRUUF)
Market price (10/8 close): $18.70 · ▼ 3.61%
NAV per unit (10/8): $21.56 · ▲ 0.09%
Discount: −13.28%, a 333 bp widening in one session
Discount path this week: −11.69% (10/1) → −11.00% → −11.49% → −8.04% → −9.95% → −13.28%
SPUT-implied spot: $89.80/lb · ▲ $0.08, the second-highest reading in our log, behind $89.82 on 9/23
Implied $/lb at market price: ≈ $78.78, excluding cash
U3O8 held: 81,697,348 lb, unchanged
NAV YTD: +8.93%
Read: we were wrong on Thursday. We wrote that the trust’s discount was “swinging far less than the stocks” and that holding under −10% would point to steady physical demand. Instead, SPUT’s price fell 3.61% on Thursday, more than the equity basket’s 3.17%, and the discount returned to where it was in late September. Spot rose over the same three days.
So the physical market wasn’t the weak spot this week. The investment vehicles that hold it were, and they’re as sensitive to rates and sentiment as the miners. Spot is up $0.21 over the past week, from $89.59 to $89.80.
Equities (Friday close)
CCJ: $88.06 · ▲ 1.08%. Range 86.45–88.71 on 1.94M shares, its lightest volume of the week. Up 3.38% for the week. Market cap $38.31B. At a $50B Westinghouse valuation, Cameco’s ~$24.5B stake equals about 64% of its market cap.
LEU: $142.44 · ▲ 0.25%. Range 141.02–146.20 on 572K shares. Up 2.28% for the week, and 28.7% below its $199.64 September offering price. Market cap $2.91B.
UEC: $9.19 · ▲ 0.55%. Range 9.11–9.34 on 5.97M shares, its lightest volume of the week. Down 1.18% for the week and 3.1% above its 52-week low. Market cap $4.55B.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
Optics closes have not been verified since Monday 10/5 (LITE $1,091.67, after a new 52-week high of $1,124.40 intraday).
Read: the AI-hardware trade had a rough Thursday after the Financial Times reported doubts about OpenAI’s revenue, then recovered with the Nasdaq on Friday. Lumentum reports fiscal Q1 results on Nov. 5. We’ll resume full optics coverage once closing data is verified.
05 · Week in Review (10/2 close → 10/9 close)
Nuclear basket
BWXT: +6.65%
CCJ: +3.38%
UEC: −1.18%
OKLO: −3.26%
SMR: −7.10%
Five-name basket: −0.30% vs. S&P +1.15%
Also tracked: LEU +2.28% · CEG +11.4% since Monday’s close
Two-week view (9/25 → 10/9): the basket is −4.35% vs. +0.88% for the S&P. BWXT (+3.86%) is the only name up. SMR is −14.49%.
The week, day by day:
Mon 10/5: the 10-year hit 5.315%, a new high since 2002. BWXT’s BANR microreactor was selected for a Canadian plant (after the close).
Tue 10/6: Google–Constellation signed a 20-year agreement for 890 MW of new capacity backed by $4.3B of investment, and the DOE announced a $4.2B loan to Vistra. The S&P set a record close at 7,818.93. The basket gained 6.75%, its best day in our log, and SPUT’s discount narrowed to −8.04%.
Wed 10/7: the 10-year touched 5.35% intraday. The Fed released its September minutes. The basket fell 4.46%.
Thu 10/8: the FT reported doubts about OpenAI’s revenue, and Waller called for more hikes. OKLO and SMR made new 52-week lows. The basket fell 3.17%, and SPUT’s discount widened to −13.28%.
Fri 10/9: earnings season began. The basket rose 0.30%, and SMR set another new low at $7.07.
Physical uranium
Spot: $89.59 → $89.80 (+0.2%)
SPUT discount: −11.69% → −13.28% · range for the week: −8.04% to −13.28%
The week’s lesson: about $11.5B of new capital for existing reactors arrived in eight days, and by Friday the market had priced each name according to how directly it touches that money. The reactor owner kept 93% of its gain, the supply chain 82%, the fuel names about zero and the developers less than zero.
06 · Catalyst Calendar
Next week: bank earnings begin
Wed 10/14: September CPI, the key data point before the October FOMC meeting
TBD: details of the DOE–Vistra loan (VST)
TBD: BWXT–Prodigy definitive agreement (BWXT)
TBD: formal signing of the U.S.–Korea framework (CCJ, BEP)
Oct (TBD): possible Westinghouse public IPO filing (CCJ, BEP)
Oct 20–21: World Nuclear Supply Chain conference, Manila
Tue–Wed 10/27–28: FOMC meeting; decision Wednesday 10/28
Fri 10/30: Cameco Q3 results (CCJ)
Mon 11/2, after close: BWX Technologies Q3 results (BWXT)
~Wed 11/4: Centrus Q3 results (LEU)
Thu 11/5: Lumentum fiscal Q1 results; NuScale Q3 call, 5:00 PM ET
~Fri 11/6: Constellation Q3 results (estimated) (CEG); October jobs report
~Tue 11/10: Oklo Q3 results (OKLO)
07 · Desk Read: What We’re Watching into Next Week
i. The market’s ranking is now complete. Tuesday’s gain kept through Friday ran in a straight line: reactor owner 93%, supply chain 82%, fuel 11% to −21%, developers −49% to −141%. With the 10-year between 5.2% and 5.35%, the market is paying for contracted revenue it can see this decade and discounting everything that depends on 2030s demand. The fuel names sit in the middle because uprates do add fuel demand, but it arrives late this decade. Cameco’s Oct. 30 call is the first chance to put numbers on it.
ii. SPUT tracks sentiment, not physical demand. In three sessions the discount went from −11.49% to −8.04% to −13.28%, a 524 bp range, while spot moved $0.12. We’re correcting our earlier read: the discount isn’t a steadier gauge than the equities. It moves on the same sentiment. Spot is the steady number, and it has held between $89.57 and $89.82 for 10 readings. The record $96 long-term price is still the more important figure for producers.
iii. CPI is next week’s swing factor. The Fed hiked in September, Waller is calling for more, and the 10-year has tested 5.35% twice. Wednesday’s CPI decides whether it breaks through or backs off. Our basket has moved opposite to the 10-year on most days this week, with SMR and OKLO moving most. With SMR at a fresh 52-week low on 30M+ shares a day, a hot CPI print is the clearest near-term risk for the developers.
Method
SPUT-implied spot = market value of U3O8 held ÷ pounds held.
$/lb at market = unit price ÷ pounds per unit (0.2374 lb), excluding cash.
Baskets are equal-weighted simple averages of verified closes. The nuclear basket is CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. Weekly figures run from the 10/2 close to the 10/9 close; the two-week view runs from 9/25.
Index weekly changes are calculated from verified daily closes.
Retention = (Friday close − Monday close) ÷ (Tuesday close − Monday close). For SPUT, it’s measured on the discount: bp of Tuesday’s narrowing still held at the latest print.
CEG’s weekly figure uses Monday 10/5’s close (derived from its reported Tuesday move), because its 10/2 close wasn’t verified.
Where a close was not verified at publication, the line says so.
For informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures come from third-party sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed; verify before acting. Past performance does not indicate future results.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Monday 10/12, post-close