Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 028 · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
The broad market rallied after the midterms, and AI power had its worst day of this run. Democrats won control of the House and Senate. The Dow rose +3.03% (+1,569 points), and the VIX fell −20% to 16.61. Merchant power generators fell sharply: VST −13.83%, NRG −13.52%, CEG −6.71%, BWXT −7.83%, with VST and NRG on about 3.5× average volume. Texas’s governor-elect has called for an immediate pause on new data-center construction. The nuclear basket fell −4.85% while the S&P rose +1.58%. That 643bp gap is the widest of the run, and all five basket names closed at their lowest level in a year.
The rest of the market saw the result as lower risk. Oil fell sharply, with Brent trading below $100 intraday for the first time in weeks, as geopolitical risk premiums faded. The 10-yr eased to 4.89%. Every sector rose except energy, tech and industrials. The AI-infrastructure chain sold off: SOX −3.13%, MU −7.00%, optics −7.64%, MRVL −7.08%. The selling followed concerns that the new Congress and state governments could scrutinize data-center expansion more closely.
LEU reported Q3. SWU revenue rose 32%, and backlog stands at $7.0B through 2040. But DOE said it doesn’t intend to exercise further options on its HALEU operations contract, which puts about $0.8B of backlog at risk. The stock traded down as far as −8.0% and closed −3.23%.
Three takeaways
Policy risk is now part of the AI-power trade. Until now, power names traded on AI capex and on rates. Today they traded on who governs data-center permitting. The heaviest selling hit Texas-exposed merchant generators (VST, NRG). Utilities rose (XLU +0.44%), so this wasn’t a sector-wide sell. It was aimed at companies whose stocks price in power demand from data centers.
Every name in the basket is at its lowest close in a year. That includes BWXT, which rose a day earlier on its results. The basket is now −24.6% below its 10/5 close. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~−67%, BWXT ~−134%, UEC ~−284%, CCJ ~−285%, LEU ~−393%, OKLO ~−537%, SMR ~−750%. The three groups held for a twenty-second session: owners and suppliers, then fuel, then developers.
Physical uranium is slipping a little. NAV fell −0.63% on Tuesday to $22.08, and implied spot is about $92.01/lb, still near the highs in our log. The equities fell 1–6% today, against −0.78% for the SPUT units.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket −4.85%. S&P +1.58%. Dow +3.03%. Gap −643bp, the widest of the run
VST −13.83% · NRG −13.52% · CEG −6.71% · BWXT −7.83% · XLU +0.44%
New 52-week lows: CCJ $69.55 · UEC $7.10 · LEU $88.00 · OKLO $21.65 · SMR $5.01 · BWXT $119.60 · URA $31.95
LEU Q3: revenue $55.5M (−26%), adjusted EPS −$0.46, backlog $7.0B, cash $2.24B
Optics −7.64%. LITE–MRVL deal spread 14.7%
VIX 16.61 (−20.3%) · 10-yr 4.89% · Brent briefly below $100
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 53,356.12, +1,569.40 (+3.03%). Reports call it the best post-midterm day in 44 years.
S&P 500 7,688.62 (+1.58%)
Nasdaq Composite 25,736.51 (+1.44%)
Russell 2000 2,856.95 (+1.58%)
Election: Democrats won majorities in both the House and the Senate, with some races still being counted. In Texas, Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the governorship. She has called for an immediate pause on new data-center construction, an end to related tax incentives, and stronger local control over water and electricity use.
Mega-cap tech: AMZN, MSFT, AAPL and GOOGL were each up about 4–7% (intraday).
AI infrastructure:
The SOX fell −3.13%. MU fell −7.00%, NVDA −3.17% to $200.13 (its lowest close since 7/30), TSM −2.24% and MRVL −7.08%.
Comfort Systems fell about 14% premarket.
GE Vernova fell about 10% (per reports).
Oil: Brent fell about $10 intraday, trading below $100, as the election result and signs of U.S.–Iran diplomacy eased risk premiums. Energy was the worst sector.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.89% (−6bp).
Volatility: VIX closed at 16.61 (−20.3%), its lowest close since 10/15.
Gold: about $4,050 (+2.9%) (early).
Power:
VST fell −13.83% to $120.29 and NRG −13.52% to $83.25, both on about 3.5× average volume and both at their lowest closes in a year.
XLU rose +0.44%.
02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
CEG $245.72, −6.71%.
It opened at $248.78 (−5.6%) and fell to $237.81. Range $237.81–$250.85. Volume was about 2.0× its 50-day average.
It closed at its lowest level since 7/8, and is 8.2% below its 10/5 close. YTD −30.4%. Q3 is due around 11/9.
BWXT $121.50, −7.83%.
It set a new 52-week low of $119.60 and closed at its lowest level in a year. Volume was about 2.0×average.
It gave back Tuesday’s post-earnings gain and more. YTD −29.7%.
OKLO $22.12, −5.83%.
It set a new 52-week low of $21.65 and closed at its lowest level in a year.
YTD −69.2%. Q3 is due around 11/10.
SMR $5.13, −4.47%.
It set a new 52-week low of $5.01 and closed at its lowest level in a year.
YTD −63.8%. Q3 is due Thursday 11/5.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
LEU $92.58, −3.23%.
It opened at $93.47 and fell to a new 52-week low of $88.00 (−8.0%), then closed 5.2% above it, at its lowest close in a year.
Volume was about 1.2× average. It is 53.6% below its $199.64 offering price. YTD −61.9%.
Q3 results:
Revenue $55.5M (−26%).
SWU revenue $14.1M (+32%), with volume +19% and price +10%. Uranium revenue fell to $17.7M from $34.1M.
Adjusted EPS −$0.46. GAAP net income was $31.6M, helped by a $46.4M warrant gain.
Backlog $7.0B through 2040, including about $5.4B of contingent LEU/HALEU commitments tied to potential capacity at Piketon.
DOE does not currently intend to exercise further HALEU operations contract options, and the proposed FY2027 budget omits funding for that cascade. That covers about $0.8B of Technical Solutions backlog.
Its first centrifuge is complete and shipping from Oak Ridge, ahead of the year-end target.
Cash was $2.24B. Nine-month capex was $226M. 2026 revenue guidance is $450–500M.
CCJ $71.68, −1.21%.
It set a new 52-week low of $69.55 for the fourth straight session, and closed at its lowest level in a year.
It is −14.1% since its results. YTD −21.7%.
UEC $7.19, −4.89%.
It set a new low of $7.10, excluding the unconfirmed $6.75 print from 10/23, and closed at its lowest level in a year. Volume was about 1.8× average.
YTD −38.4%.
URA $32.70, −1.06%. It set a new low of $31.95 and closed at its lowest level in a year. YTD −23.5%.
SPUT
Tuesday 11/3 print:
NAV $22.08 (−0.63%). Discount −12.77%.
Implied spot about $92.01/lb.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) fell −0.78% to $19.11. If NAV held at $22.08, the discount would be about −13.5%(our estimate).
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
CRDO $136.50, −9.55%. It closed at its lowest level since 4/13. YTD −5.1%.
CIEN $272.24, −9.28%. It closed at its lowest level since 2/6. YTD +16.4%.
LITE $626.75, −7.85%.
It traded down to $598.70. YTD +70.0%.
Deal spread: 4.5 × MRVL’s $159.80 close = $719.10 of implied value. LITE closed 14.7% below that.
AAOI $59.27, −7.35%. It closed at its lowest level since 2/26. YTD +70.0%.
COHR $195.09, −5.98%. It closed at its lowest level since 1/20. YTD +5.7%.
GLW $118.77, −5.84%. It closed at its lowest level since 2/5. YTD +35.6%.
The pattern: volume was 1.2–1.9× average across the group. Optics sold off with the rest of the AI-infrastructure chain on a day mega-cap tech rallied.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: SPUT print for 11/4
Thu 11/5: SMR Q3 · LITE Q1 FY27 (timing subject to the deal)
Fri 11/6: October jobs report · our Week in Review edition
~Nov 9: CEG Q3. This is the first report from a merchant generator since the election
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
Ongoing: data-center policy statements from incoming state administrations, and Congress’s agenda on AI infrastructure
06 · Desk Read
i. The election added policy risk to the AI-power trade. For four weeks this complex traded on AI capex sentiment, rates, and then the cash-flow worries around financing the buildout. Today it traded on politics. The heaviest selling, VST and NRG down almost 14% on 3.5× average volume, hit generators exposed to Texas, where the governor-elect has proposed pausing new data-center construction. The broad market rallied, utilities rose, oil fell and the VIX dropped 20%. So this wasn’t fear across the market. It was aimed at stocks whose valuations assume data centers keep coming online. CEG’s results next week will be the first chance to hear a generator’s management address it.
ii. Even the strongest names got sold. BWXT rose a day earlier on a strong cash quarter, then fell 7.8% today to a year low. On a day like this, the market sold the stocks that trade with AI power regardless of company results. The cumulative ranking still holds, but every name is now at a 12-month low. The basket is down 24.6% since 10/5, while physical uranium has risen over the same period.
iii. LEU’s quarter had good news and a problem. Enrichment is improving: SWU volume was up 19%, price up 10%, and the backlog is $7.0B. The DOE news on HALEU funding is a real negative for about $0.8B of backlog. The stock fell as much as 8% and recovered to −3%, so the market weighed both. Most of the backlog ($5.4B) depends on building out Piketon, and LEU has $2.2B of cash to fund it.
Corrections
None for Edition 027.
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. “Basket vs 10/5” is the equal-weight average of each name’s change since its 10/5 close. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Deal spread = (4.5 × MRVL close) ÷ LITE close − 1. Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. Estimates are marked as such. Election coverage reports outcomes and stated policy positions only. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Thursday 11/5, post-close