Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 032 · Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
This was the first pullback since last Thursday’s low, and it held. A hot October CPI report pushed the 10-yr up 12bp to 4.98%, after it briefly touched 5.02%. The nuclear basket fell −4.17%. Every name is still well above last Thursday’s lows, and the basket is still +15.5% from Thursday’s close. CEG gave back −3.02% and closed at $267.76, 14 cents above its pre-Google-deal close of $267.62. NVDA fell another −5.5%, and GE Vernova fell about 7% after SoftBank took a $3.7B charge on power equipment it had bought for U.S. AI data centers.
October CPI rose +0.4% m/m (+0.3% expected), and core rose +0.3% (+0.2% expected). Year-over-year figures weren’t published because of the October 2025 government shutdown. Fed Governor Waller said he would support at least a 25bp hike in December, and would consider 50bp. The S&P fell −0.38%, the Nasdaq −0.74% and the Dow −0.30%. Oil fell to its lowest since late August (WTI about $85.50) after President Trump said he would hold off on new strikes against Iran.
NVDA fell −5.5% to $168.80, on 3.4× its average volume, its lowest close since March. A shareholder lawsuit and an FBI inquiry followed reports involving the CEO and a former Megaspeed executive. NVDA is now −9.5% YTD.
Three takeaways
The pullback held well above Thursday’s lows. OKLO is +35% above its Thursday low, LEU +29%, SMR +22%, UEC +17%, BWXT +13% and CCJ +10%. Volume was below average (0.5–1.0×), which looks like profit-taking, not forced selling. That’s the kind of first pullback that would add confirmation, as we said Monday.
Higher rates hurt the developers again. The 10-yr rose 12bp, and OKLO (−6.5%), LEU (−6.4%) and UEC (−6.0%) fell the most. BWXT, a supplier with a contract backlog, fell only −1.0%. That’s the rate sensitivity we documented on 10/14–15, back after two weeks when AI capex mattered more.
The ranking held for a twenty-sixth session. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~0%, BWXT ~−83%, LEU ~−254%, CCJ ~−263%, UEC ~−288%, OKLO ~−422%, SMR ~−724%.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket −4.17% today, +15.5% since Thursday’s close · S&P −0.38%
October CPI +0.4% m/m, core +0.3%. Both were 0.1pt above expectations
10-yr 4.98% (+12bp, intraday high 5.02%) · VIX 19.68
NVDA −5.53%, now −9.5% YTD · GE Vernova about −7%
CEG $267.76, against its 10/5 close of $267.62
SPUT discount −14.19% (Monday data). NAV fell −0.58% to $21.92. Implied spot ~$91.35/lb
Optics −3.05% · LITE–MRVL deal spread 18.7%
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 52,233.08 (−0.30%)
S&P 500 7,520.95 (−0.38%)
Nasdaq Composite 25,065.88 (−0.74%)
Russell 2000 2,820.17 (−0.73%)
CPI (October):
Headline rose +0.4% m/m, against +0.3% expected. September was +0.6%.
Core rose +0.3% m/m, against +0.2% expected.
There are no year-over-year figures because of the 2025 shutdown.
Fed: Governor Waller said he would support at least a 25bp hike in December and would consider 50bp if core prices keep running at 0.3% or more.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.98% (+12bp), after trading as high as 5.02%.
Volatility: VIX closed at 19.68 (−1.2%).
NVDA: −5.53% to $168.80 on 3.4× average volume, its lowest close since 3/30.
A shareholder lawsuit alleges the company misled investors about the CEO’s relationship with a former Megaspeed executive.
President Trump said the FBI is looking into it.
The stock is down about 18% in five sessions.
Chips: the SOX fell only −0.35%, and TSM rose +2.05%.
AI power equipment: GE Vernova fell about 7% after SoftBank disclosed a $3.7B charge on power-generation equipment it had bought for U.S. AI data centers.
Oil: WTI fell −1.5% to about $85.50 and Brent about −1.9% to $90.80, both the lowest since late August.
Power: XLU −0.14%, VST −2.08%, NRG −0.32%.
Sectors: money rotated out of AI stocks into defensive sectors such as healthcare.
02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
CEG $267.76, −3.02%.
Range $263.80–$273.30. Volume was about 0.7× its 50-day average. YTD −24.2%.
It is now 14 cents above its 10/5 close.
OKLO $25.09, −6.54%.
Range $24.85–$26.62. YTD −65.0%.
It is +35.4% from Thursday’s low.
SMR $5.22, −4.04%. It is +22.0% from Thursday’s low. YTD −63.2%.
BWXT $126.74, −0.98%.
Volume was about 0.5× average, the lightest in the group. It is +12.6% from Thursday’s low. YTD −26.7%.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
LEU $109.79, −6.43%.
Range $107.95–$114.88. Volume was about 0.7× average. It is +29.4% from Thursday’s low. YTD −54.8%.
UEC $7.17, −5.97%. It is +17.1% from Thursday’s low. YTD −38.7%.
CCJ $72.85, −3.34%.
It traded up to $75.42 at the open, then faded. It is +10.3% from Thursday’s low. YTD −20.4%.
URA $33.14, −3.49%. YTD −22.4%.
SPUT
Monday 11/9 print:
NAV $21.92, down −0.58%, its largest one-day drop in our log.
Discount −14.19%.
Implied spot about $91.35/lb, down from the $92.74 peak on 10/30.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) fell −2.07% to $18.42, their lowest close since 10/22. If NAV held at $21.92, the discount would be about −16.0% (our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $77.59/lb.
What this means: physical uranium is now slipping slightly. Implied spot is down about 1.5% from its peak in our log. The SPUT units are back near their lows while the equities sit 10–35% above theirs.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
CIEN $271.98, +0.98%. It was the only optics name to finish up. YTD +16.3%.
LITE $585.57, −1.78%.
YTD +58.9%.
Deal spread: 4.5 × MRVL’s $154.39 close = $694.76 of implied value. LITE closed 18.7% below that, the widest gap since the deal was announced.
CRDO $129.80, −2.33%. YTD −9.8%.
GLW $112.16, −3.27%. YTD +28.1%.
COHR $214.76, −4.63%. Volume was about 1.3× average. YTD +16.4%.
AAOI $48.32, −7.26%. YTD +38.6%.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: SPUT print for 11/10
Tue 11/17: NVDA Q3
December FOMC: a hike is now openly on the table after CPI and Governor Waller’s comments
Levels to watch: Thursday’s lows (OKLO $18.53, SMR $4.28, LEU $84.86, CCJ $66.06, UEC $6.12, BWXT $112.55)
06 · Desk Read
i. The first pullback held up, on light volume. On Monday we said a pullback that holds well above Thursday’s lows would add confirmation. Today’s −4.2% came on below-average volume, and every name is still 10–35% above its Thursday low. One day doesn’t prove the low is in, but this is the shape we were looking for.
ii. With AI capex sentiment steadier, rates are driving these stocks again. For two weeks, AI capex sentiment and policy news drove the moves. Today a hot CPI report and a Fed governor talking about a possible 50bp hike lifted the 10-yr 12bp. The long-duration names fell the most: OKLO, LEU and UEC each lost about 6%. BWXT fell 1%. In this group, the rate channel works in both directions. CPI is now a December-hike question, and the developers are the most sensitive to it.
iii. GE Vernova’s drop is a reminder that power equipment is part of the same trade. SoftBank’s $3.7B charge on gas-turbine equipment for U.S. AI data centers is the first large write-down we’ve seen tied to the AI power buildout. GEV fell about 7%. Nuclear owners and operators held up better: CEG fell 3% and BWXT 1%. If the market starts asking whether power equipment bought for AI will actually be used, nuclear names with signed long-term contracts, like CEG’s 20-year PPAs, are more insulated than equipment suppliers.
Corrections
Edition 031 (11/9) used prints from about 3:57pm. The final closes were slightly different:
Nuclear basket +8.80% (not +9.11%), and +20.5% over two days (not +20.9%).
UEC $7.62, +10.12% (not +10.91%). OKLO $26.84 (+13.97%). SMR $5.44 (+7.09%). BWXT $127.99 (+7.09%). CEG $276.09 (+10.46%). LEU $117.34 (+12.18%).
Optics +10.27% (not +10.42%). S&P 7,549.94 (+2.35%). NVDA $178.67 (−4.27%).
With the final CEG close, its share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain was about +26%, the same as published.
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. Today’s prices were pulled at about 4:00pm ET and may differ slightly from the final closes. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Deal spread = (4.5 × MRVL close) ÷ LITE close − 1. Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Wednesday 11/11, post-close