Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 017 · Monday, October 19, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
AI chips and optics bounced, but the AI-power names didn’t. The SOX rose 2.5%, ending an eight-session losing streak, and optics rose +1.70%. The five-name nuclear basket fell another −1.43%, and utilities were the weakest S&P sector (−2.0%). CEG fell −3.01% to $263.19, below its $267.62 close of 10/5, so on a closing basis the entire Google-deal gain is gone. LEU and OKLO set new 52-week lows again.
The broad market recovered part of Friday’s drop: S&P +0.41%, Nasdaq +1.11% and VIX 18.44 (−7.8%). Dow −0.07%. Two things helped AI stocks: an Nvidia announcement on memory standards, and Jensen Huang’s comment that CoreWeave’s “cost of capital is actually decreasing.” CoreWeave rose +6.1%. Last week’s demand for bonds as a safe haven eased, and the 10-yr rose about 4bp to 5.14%. That kind of rate move hurts the long-dated nuclear names.
Both groups had the same shape intraday. Every name we track opened higher and closed below its open. Optics opened up 3.4–5.9% and gave back about 3% on average. LITE opened +5.9% and closed just $1 above its low. The nuclear names opened up 0.7–3.4% and fell 1.6–6.6% from there. The difference was the size of the opening gap: optics had enough of a gap to finish up, and nuclear didn’t.
Three takeaways
The AI trade split by layer. Chips and optics were bought. Power and utilities were sold. XLU −2.0%, NRG −3.6%, CEG −3.0%, and the nuclear basket −1.43%. Over the last 10 sessions, today is the clearest day that AI chips and AI power moved in opposite directions.
CEG has given back the whole spike. Its close of $263.19 is the lowest since 10/2 ($257.49), and its share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain has turned negative (~−14%). BWXT (~+5%) is now the only tracked name still above its 10/5 close.
SPUT’s discount narrowed to −12.95% on Friday’s data. Implied spot rose to about $90.00/lb, the highest in our log. Uranium itself keeps edging up while the equities keep falling.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket −1.43% · S&P +0.41% · Gap −184bp
Optics, six names +1.70% · SOX about +2.5%
New 52-week lows: LEU $108.69 · OKLO $26.82. Lowest closes in a year: LEU $110.12 · OKLO $27.24 · SMR $5.69 · URA $35.27
CCJ $80.70, its lowest close since 11/21/2025
CEG $263.19, below its 10/5 pre-Google close
10-yr 5.14% (+4bp) · VIX 18.44
SPUT discount −12.95% (Friday data), narrower by 191bp. Implied spot ~$90.00/lb
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 51,966.03, −36.38 (−0.07%)
S&P 500 7,690.73, +31.29 (+0.41%)
Nasdaq Composite 26,430.89, +290.86 (+1.11%)
Russell 2000 2,728.30, +6.93 (+0.25%)
Tech rebound:
The SOX rose about 2.5%, ending an eight-session losing streak. It fell 11.5% last week.
Movers: AMZN +4.95%, PLTR +4.36%, TSLA +3.74%, MU +2.95% (to $904.90), WDC +5.2%, CoreWeave +6.12%.
NVDA rose +1.38% to $217.09 and TSM +1.84% to $420.22.
Sectors:
Consumer discretionary rose about 2.7% and tech about 1.2%.
Utilities fell about 2.0%, the worst sector (XLU −2.01% to $41.36). NRG fell −3.63%.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 5.14% (+4bp). The 5-yr was about 4.95% and the 30-yr about 5.48%. Yields rose about 3–4bp across the curve as last week’s demand for bonds as a safe haven eased.
Volatility: VIX closed at 18.44, down 7.8% from 19.99.
Data:
The NAHB homebuilder index fell 3 points to 29, its lowest since June 2012 and below the 31 expected. 43% of builders cut prices.
The 30-yr mortgage rate averaged 7.40% last week (Freddie Mac).
China’s Q3 GDP grew 4.5%, faster than expected.
Commodities:
Crude was mixed. Reported moves differed across contracts after the U.S. waived Russia sanctions and Houthi forces claimed new attacks on Saudi targets. Brent was about $108–109.
Gold fell about −0.5%.
(Prices varied by source.)
This week’s earnings:
Tuesday: NFLX and SpaceX after the close, GE Aerospace before the open.
Wednesday: TSLA, META, IBM and TXN after the close.
02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
CEG $263.19, −3.01%.
It opened at $275.87 and closed 4.60% below that. Range $261.93–$277.21. YTD −25.5%.
This was its lowest close since 10/2 ($257.49), and the first close below its 10/5 pre-Google level ($267.62).
Its market value is now about $93B, down from about $104B on 10/12. It is −12.4% since 10/6.
It traded with the utilities sector today (XLU −2.0%), after diverging from it on Friday.
OKLO $27.24, −2.61%.
It set a new 52-week low of $26.82, and closed at its lowest level in a year. It opened at $28.64 (+2.4%) and closed 4.89% below that.
YTD −62.0%. Since 10/6, −29.3%.
SMR $5.69, −2.40%.
It closed at its lowest level in a year. It opened at $6.03 (+3.4%) and closed 5.64% below that. Its intraday low ($5.66) stayed above Thursday’s $5.44.
Volume was 17.3M, about 0.5× its 50-day average and the lightest of the run (preliminary). YTD −59.8%.
Since 10/6, −29.1%.
BWXT $135.83, −0.86%.
Range $134.73–$138.00. YTD −21.4%.
It is 48 cents above its 10/5 close of $135.35, and is now the only tracked name still above its pre-spike level.
Since 10/6, −6.8%.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
LEU $110.12, −4.19%.
It set a new 52-week low of $108.69, its sixth new low in seven sessions, and closed at its lowest level in a year. It opened at $117.92 and closed 6.61% below that.
Volume was 1.36M, about 1.9× average. YTD −54.6%.
It is 44.8% below the $199.64 offering price, and −28.4% since 10/6.
CCJ $80.70, −1.01%.
Range $80.57–$82.47. It closed 13 cents above its low.
This was its lowest close since 11/21/2025 ($79.44), below last Wednesday’s $81.47. YTD −11.8%.
Volume was 1.87M, below average (preliminary).
UEC $7.89, −0.25%.
Range $7.80–$8.08. YTD −32.4%.
It held above last week’s lowest close ($7.70) and above Thursday’s intraday low ($7.27). It was the best performer in the basket today.
URA $35.27, −0.45%. This was its lowest close in a year. YTD −17.5%.
SPUT
Friday 10/16 print:
NAV $21.61 (+0.14%). Price $18.81. Discount −12.95%, narrower by 191bp. Our estimate in Edition 016 was −12.8%.
Implied spot is about $90.00/lb, up from $89.72 on 10/9 and the highest reading in our log. NAV YTD is +9.15%.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) closed at $18.76 (−0.27%). If NAV held at $21.61, the discount would be about −13.2% (our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $79.02/lb.
What this means: NAV has now risen four sessions in a row (21.54 → 21.55 → 21.58 → 21.61). Implied spot has edged up while every listed uranium equity set new lows. Physical uranium and the uranium equities are still moving in opposite directions.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
AAOI $78.20, +3.48%.
It opened at $79.81 (+5.6%). Its low of $75.62 came within 19 cents of Friday’s low. YTD +124.3%.
CIEN $344.20, +3.45%.
It opened +4.7% and held most of the gain. It closed 1.2% below its open. YTD +47.2%.
CRDO $172.81, +1.83%.
It opened +5.4% and closed 3.4% below its open. YTD +20.1%.
LITE $834.51, +1.26%.
It opened at $872.50 (+5.9%) and closed 4.4% below that, just $1.01 above its low ($833.50). YTD +126.4%.
It is 27.0% below its 10/9 intraday record of $1,143.00.
GLW $132.74, +0.56%.
It opened +3.4% and closed 2.7% below its open. YTD +51.6%.
COHR $232.02, −0.38%.
It opened at $243.14 (+4.4%) and closed 4.6% below that, at its lowest close since 7/29. It was the only optics name to finish down. YTD +25.7%.
The pattern: the six names opened up +4.9% on average and lost about 3.1% from the open to the close. Buyers showed up at the open and sellers took over during the session. LITE and COHR, the two largest optical-component names, closed at or near their lows.
Since 10/6: the six names are down −27.2% on average, against −20.1% for the nuclear basket.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: SPUT print for 10/19
Tue 10/20: NFLX, SpaceX (after the close) · GE Aerospace (before the open)
Wed 10/21: META, TSLA, IBM, TXN (after the close). META’s capex guidance is the week’s main read on demand for AI power
Late Oct: GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Oct 27–28: FOMC
Oct 29: AMZN Q3
Oct 30: CCJ Q3
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
06 · Desk Read
i. AI chips and AI power moved apart. For the last two weeks, optics and nuclear rose and fell together; the only question was how much. Today the market bought AI chips and memory (SOX +2.5%, MU +3.0%) and sold the power layer (utilities −2.0%, CEG −3.0%, the nuclear basket −1.4%). Two things seem to explain it.
The rebound was driven by comments about AI demand and financing (Nvidia, CoreWeave). Those help chips more than power.
Yields rose 4bp, which hurts long-duration power assets.
We’ll check whether this holds on Tuesday.
ii. The ranking is down to one name. Only BWXT still keeps part of Tuesday’s gain (~5%). The rest of the ranking is unchanged from Friday: CEG ~−14%, CCJ ~−122%, UEC ~−192%, LEU ~−252%, OKLO ~−338%, SMR ~−585%. The groups held for a ninth session, with owners and suppliers first, fuel second and developers last. The levels have all moved down. The supplier with a defense backlog is now the only name above where it started.
iii. Volume is falling as prices fall. SMR set its lowest close of the year on about half its average volume. CCJ set its lowest close since November on below-average volume (both preliminary). LEU, at about 1.9× average, is the exception. Wednesday and Thursday saw heavy selling; this is lighter. That isn’t a call. It does mean the price levels are coming without big blocks of selling. The level that matters most is still Thursday’s intraday lows. OKLO already broke its ($27.52 → $26.82), as did LEU ($112.78 → $108.69). SMR ($5.44), UEC ($7.27) and CCJ ($78.55) haven’t.
Corrections
SPUT 10/16: the official discount was −12.95%. Edition 016 estimated about −12.8%, 15bp too narrow. Implied spot was $90.00/lb.
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. Volumes were pulled shortly after the close and may be revised in the consolidated data. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. “Lowest close since” and YTD figures use daily closes over the trailing year; the YTD base is the 12/31/2025 close. CEG’s market value is scaled from its 10/12 reported cap. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
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