Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 022 · Monday, October 26, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
The AI trade bounced after Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 for a Nasdaq listing, but the gains went to optics, not power. Optics rose +5.23% (LITE +8.19%) and the SOX +2.82%. The five-name nuclear basket rose only +0.27%. LEU closed at $98.44, below half of its $199.64 offering price, and OKLO and SMR closed at their lowest levels in a year. BWXT rose +3.15% and retook first place in our ranking.
The S&P rose +0.70%, the Nasdaq +0.82% and the Dow +0.28%. VIX fell to 18.39. The filing reported first-half revenue of $16.3B and up to $120.5B of compute commitments through 2029 (per press reports of the S-1). That lifted chips: NVDA +2.4% and MU +3.0%. Two financing headlines pulled the other way. META said it plans to raise up to $95B in equity for AI infrastructure. Elon Musk said many neocloud companies could collapse. Oil eased on hopes of talks between the U.S. and Iran; WTI fell −1.8% to about $101.40. The 10-yr was flat at 4.99%. The FOMC starts tomorrow.
The basket’s split followed the same line. BWXT, a supplier with a backlog and cash flow, rose +3.15% and closed at its high. CCJ (+0.60%) and UEC (+1.22%) rose slightly. The developers and LEU fell: OKLO −1.56%, SMR −2.04%, LEU −3.91%. CEG was little changed (−0.38%).
Three takeaways
AI optimism isn’t reaching power. On each of the three days since 10/19 that the AI trade rose, optics beat the nuclear basket by 2.9–5.0 points. Today the gap was +5.2% against +0.3%. Investors buying AI are buying compute and networking suppliers, not the generators or the reactors.
Financing is now the main question in the AI trade. META’s $95B equity raise, SpaceX’s $40B of debt for chips, and Musk’s warning about neoclouds all pointed the same way. Within nuclear, the companies that already have cash flow rose (BWXT +3.2%), while the pre-revenue developers and LEU set new lows.
The ranking has a new leader again. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: BWXT ~−40%, CEG ~−46%, CCJ ~−151%, UEC ~−251%, LEU ~−346%, OKLO ~−389%, SMR ~−709%. The groups held for a fifteenth session: owners and suppliers, then fuel, then developers.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket +0.27%. S&P +0.70%. Optics +5.23%. SOX +2.82%
LEU $98.44, its first close below $100 and 50.7% below its $199.64 offering. Its intraday low was $96.89
Lowest closes in a year: LEU $98.44 · OKLO $25.94 · SMR $5.27. OKLO set a new 52-week low of $25.39
BWXT +3.15% to $131.20
META announced an equity raise of up to $95B. Market odds of a hike at this week’s FOMC are about 10%
SPUT discount −13.95% (Friday data). NAV fell for a second straight day, to $21.56
10-yr 4.99% (flat) · VIX 18.39 (−5.4%) · WTI ~$101.40 (−1.8%)
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 52,361.58, +146.42 (+0.28%)
S&P 500 7,676.77, +53.09 (+0.70%)
Nasdaq Composite 26,169.38, +214.04 (+0.82%)
Russell 2000 2,786.42, +10.52 (+0.38%)
Anthropic’s S-1 (as reported; see notes):
Anthropic publicly filed to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.
Reported figures: H1 2026 revenue of $16.3B (against $4.6B for all of 2025), H1 AI infrastructure spending of $9B, and up to $120.5B of commitments with SpaceX’s AI unit through 2029.
No offering date or valuation was given.
AI financing:
META plans to raise up to $95B in equity: $35B through underwritten offerings and $60B through an at-the-market program. The stock fell −1.88% to $630.56.
SpaceX lined up $40B of debt to buy AI chips.
Neocloud stocks fell after Musk said many of them could collapse.
Chips: the SOX rose +2.82%. NVDA +2.39% ($216.00), MU +2.98% ($903.70), TSM +1.40% ($424.37). TSLA rose about 6%.
Fed: the FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with the decision Wednesday afternoon. Market odds of a hike are about 10% (one report on Friday had about 5%). Markets broadly expect a hold, and some expect a “hawkish pause.” The ECB, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan also meet this week.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.99%, about flat. The 2-yr rose about 3bp to roughly 4.71%, so the curve flattened.
Oil: WTI fell about −1.8% to $101.40, on hopes for easing U.S.–Iran tensions after mediation visits to Tehran. Reported Brent levels differed by source, from about $110 to $115 (see notes).
Volatility and gold: VIX closed at 18.39 (−5.4%). Gold was about $4,025–4,030.
Power: XLU −0.02%, VST +1.12% ($141.73), NRG +1.41% ($93.61).
02 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
LEU $98.44, −3.91%.
It fell to a new 52-week low of $96.89 and had its first close below $100, its lowest close in a year.
It is now 50.7% below the $199.64 offering price, so it has lost more than half its value since the offering.
Volume was about 1.1× its 50-day average. YTD −59.4%. Since 10/6, −36.0%.
UEC $7.44, +1.22%.
Range $7.14–$7.51. Volume was about 0.8× average. YTD −36.3%.
CCJ $79.07, +0.60%.
Range $77.27–$79.59. It closed 2.3% above its low and near its high, and held above Friday’s $76.92 low.
Volume was about 0.75× average. YTD −13.6%. CCJ reports Q3 on Friday 10/30.
URA $34.36, +0.73%. YTD −19.6%.
SPUT
Friday 10/23 print:
NAV $21.56 (−0.14%), its second straight decline. NAV has gone $21.61 → $21.59 → $21.56.
Price $18.55. Discount −13.95%.
Implied spot about $89.80/lb, down from the $90.02 peak.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) rose +1.94% to $18.91. If NAV held at $21.56, the discount would be about −12.3%(our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $79.65/lb.
What this means: the vehicle’s price is recovering while the uranium it holds slips slightly. The gap between the two is narrowing from both sides.
03 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
BWXT $131.20, +3.15%.
Range $127.70–$131.31. It closed 11 cents below its high. Volume was about 0.9× average.
It was the best performer in the basket and retook first place in the ranking. YTD −24.1%.
CEG $252.48, −0.38%.
Range $249.20–$255.62. It closed 9 cents above its 7/17 close ($252.39).
YTD −28.5%. Since 10/6, −16.0%.
OKLO $25.94, −1.56%.
It set a new 52-week low of $25.39 and closed at its lowest level in a year.
Volume was about 0.7× average. YTD −63.9%. Since 10/6, −32.7%.
SMR $5.27, −2.04%.
It closed at its lowest level in a year. Its intraday low ($5.23) stayed above Friday’s $5.20.
Volume was about 0.7× average. YTD −62.8%. Since 10/6, −34.3%.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
LITE $818.10, +8.19%.
Range $756.00–$840.47. Volume was 6.01M, about 1.3× average. YTD +122.0%.
It is 28.4% below its $1,143.00 record.
AAOI $71.94, +6.56%. Range $66.51–$74.39. YTD +106.4%.
COHR $221.50, +5.83%. Range $208.86–$225.66. YTD +20.0%.
CIEN $335.93, +4.89%. It reached $345.48 intraday. YTD +43.6%.
GLW $127.74, +3.27%. Volume was 13.1M, about 1.55× average. YTD +45.9%.
CRDO $151.15, +2.62%.
It was the weakest name in the group, a day after its −9.5% drop on competition news. YTD +5.0%.
The pattern: every optics name rose, and the larger optical-component names (LITE, AAOI, COHR) led. A brokerage’s new coverage of LITE was among the reported catalysts; we’ve left it out under our no-ratings policy.
Since 10/6: the six names are down −31.2% on average, against −23.7% for the nuclear basket.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: SPUT print for 10/26
Tue 10/27: FOMC meeting begins
Wed 10/28: FOMC decision. MSFT and GOOGL report after the close
Thu 10/29: AMZN Q3 · RDDT
Fri 10/30: CCJ Q3, the first quarterly report from a basket company in this run
This week: ECB, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan decisions · GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
Nov 3: U.S. midterms
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
06 · Desk Read
i. The AI rebound keeps going to compute and networking, not power. We’ve now had three days since 10/19 when the AI trade rose (10/19, 10/21 and today). On each of them, optics beat the nuclear basket by 2.9–5.0 points. CEG joined in once (10/21) and gave it all back the next day. Today Anthropic’s filing put a new, large compute commitment on the record, and the money went to chips and optics. Power demand doesn’t automatically follow AI spending, at least not in how the market is pricing it this month. It’s now a separate question.
ii. The market is sorting companies by financing, and nuclear is splitting the same way. META’s $95B equity raise, SpaceX’s $40B in debt and Musk’s warning about neoclouds all raised the same question: who pays for the buildout, and how? Suppliers that get paid in cash today (chips, optics, and in our coverage BWXT) rose. Companies that need capital to build fell. In nuclear, that’s OKLO, SMR and LEU, which all set new lows. BWXT’s +3.2% move back to first place fits that pattern. So does LEU’s close below half its offering price.
iii. This week is the busiest of the run. In order:
FOMC on Wednesday. A hold is expected, with about 10% odds of a hike.
MSFT and GOOGL on Wednesday night, and AMZN on Thursday. This is the main hyperscaler capex read.
CCJ on Friday, the first fundamental report from inside the basket.
Meanwhile, physical uranium has slipped for two days (NAV −0.24% in total) even as the SPUT units recovered. CCJ’s comments on contracting and pricing are the first company-level read on whether the weakness in the equities matches anything in the actual uranium market.
Corrections
UEC’s 10/23 low: the consolidated data now shows a low of $6.75, not the $7.19 we printed in Edition 021. That print is 4.5% below the close (and the open), so it may be an outlier trade. We are treating $7.14 (today) and $7.19 as the levels to watch until the exchange confirms it.
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. “Lowest close since” and YTD figures use daily closes over the trailing year; the YTD base is the 12/31/2025 close. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Tuesday 10/27, post-close