Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 024 · Thursday, October 29, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
Uranium kept rising while the hyperscalers fell on cash-flow worries. SPUT’s NAV rose for a third straight session to $22.09, and implied spot reached about $92.05/lb, a new high in our log and up 2.5% since Friday. Alphabet fell −12.6% to its lowest close since March, and Amazon fell −4.25% in the session and about −7% more after its report. The nuclear basket rose +0.55% while the Nasdaq fell −1.38%. Amazon’s after-hours drop then pulled the AI-power names lower.
Today’s tech selloff was about cash flow, not demand. Alphabet showed negative free cash flow alongside its 2027 capex signal. Amazon kept its ~$220B 2026 capex plan, reported trailing-12-month free cash flow of −$42.4B, and showed long-term debt nearly triple its December level. AWS still grew 39%. MSFT gave back its after-hours gain and closed −0.16%. Marvell fell −13.2% after Bloomberg reported it is in advanced talks to buy Lumentum. LITE rose as much as +7.1% and closed +0.61%.
Outside megacap tech, most of the market rose. The Russell 2000 gained +1.01% to its highest close since 9/22, and utilities rose +1.53% to their highest close since 9/8. The nuclear basket was mixed: SMR +4.41%, CEG +2.52% and BWXT +2.20% led, while the fuel equities slipped (UEC −2.28%, LEU −1.27%, CCJ −0.42%) even as physical uranium rose. BWXT closed back above its 10/5 close.
Three takeaways
The uranium price itself is rising. NAV went from $21.56 to $22.09 in three sessions (+2.5%), and the SPUT discount narrowed to −11.77%. Implied spot (~$92.05) is above Cameco’s September spot average ($89.63) and below its long-term price ($96.50). CCJ reports Friday.
The market penalized hyperscalers on cash flow. GOOGL had negative free cash flow and a big 2027 capex step-up. AMZN has −$42B of trailing free cash flow and heavier debt. The market is now asking who funds the spending, not whether there is demand. During the session, power held up (CEG +2.5%, XLU +1.5%). After the AMZN report, it gave some back (CEG −1.7%, OKLO −3.2%, SMR −4.6% in thin after-hours trading).
BWXT moved back above its pre-Google-deal close, and the ranking held for an eighteenth session. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: BWXT ~+25%, CEG ~−9%, CCJ ~−72%, UEC ~−158%, LEU ~−248%, OKLO ~−355%, SMR ~−518%.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket +0.55%. S&P −0.30%. Nasdaq −1.38%. Russell 2000 +1.01%
SPUT NAV $22.09 (+0.30%; +2.5% in three sessions). Implied spot ~$92.05/lb. Discount −11.77%
GOOGL −12.64% ($283.82) · AMZN −4.25% ($243.79), about −7% after hours · MRVL −13.24%
Optics −2.41%. LITE +0.61% after trading up 7.1% intraday
Q3 GDP 3.4% (3.1% expected) · PCE 3.6% y/y, core 3.1% y/y
10-yr 4.99% (−6bp) · VIX 17.20 · XLU +1.53%
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 52,342.56, −132.54 (−0.25%)
S&P 500 7,720.39, −23.59 (−0.30%)
Nasdaq Composite 26,184.72, −365.13 (−1.38%)
Russell 2000 2,859.22, +28.71 (+1.01%), its highest close since 9/22
Data:
Q3 GDP grew 3.4% annualized, against 3.1% expected and 2.2% in Q2.
September PCE rose +0.5% m/m and 3.6% y/y, up from 3.4%. Core PCE rose +0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y.
Consumer spending rose +0.5%, against +0.6% expected. Income rose +0.2%.
Hyperscalers:
GOOGL −12.64% to $283.82, its lowest close since 3/30. That followed a revenue and profit miss, negative free cash flow, and its signal of a “significant increase” in 2027 capex.
MSFT −0.16% to $530.14, giving back its after-hours gain. Azure grew 48%.
META rose +1.96%.
AMZN, after the bell:
Revenue was $201.9B (+12%). AWS was $46.0B, up +39%, its fastest growth in nearly five years.
It kept its plan for about $220B of 2026 capex.
Trailing-12-month free cash flow was −$42.4B, against +$14.8B a year ago. Long-term debt is about $173B, nearly triple December’s level.
Headlines called it a miss on sales and EPS. The stock closed −4.25% at $243.79 and was about −6% to −7% in after-hours trading.
Chips and software:
The SOX fell −1.42%. MU fell −4.98% to $934.27, NVDA −0.80% and TSM −1.75%.
ServiceNow fell about 25% and Fortinet about 22% on guidance.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.99% (−6bp), with a range of 4.95–5.03%.
Volatility: VIX closed at 17.20 (+1.7%).
Oil: WTI was about $102 and Brent about $114 (intraday). Gold was about $4,036.
Power: XLU rose +1.53% to $43.14, its highest close since 9/8. VST −1.24%, NRG +0.59%.
02 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
SPUT
Thursday 10/29 print (posted same day):
NAV $22.09 (+0.30%). NAV YTD is +11.59%.
Price $19.49, the highest close since 10/6. Discount −11.77%.
Implied spot about $92.05/lb, a new high in our log.
Wednesday 10/28: NAV $22.02 (+1.06%). With the units at $19.39, the discount was about −11.94% (derived).
NAV over the last four prints: $21.56 → $21.79 → $22.02 → $22.09, up 2.5% since Friday.
At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $82.10/lb.
For reference: Cameco’s published monthly prices as of 9/30 were $89.63 spot and $96.50 long-term. Implied spot is now about $2.40 above the September spot average and about $4.45 below the long-term price.
Equities
CCJ $83.49, −0.42%.
Range $82.83–$84.75. YTD −8.7%.
It reports Q3 on Friday 10/30. It was about −1.2% in after-hours trading.
LEU $110.55, −1.27%.
It traded up to $116.61 (+4.1%) and then gave it back. YTD −54.5%.
It was about −3.6% in after-hours trading.
UEC $8.15, −2.28%. Volume was about 1.0× its 50-day average. YTD −30.2%.
URA $35.72, −2.27%. YTD −16.4%.
What this means: last week the equities fell while physical uranium held. Today it ran the other way: NAV rose and the fuel equities fell. Over the three sessions, the equities still rose more (LEU +12.3%, UEC +9.5%, CCJ +5.6% against NAV +2.5%). Today looks like a pause after Tuesday’s jump, not a reversal.
03 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
SMR $5.92, +4.41%.
Range $5.54–$6.11. It closed at its highest level since 10/15. Volume was 35.7M, about 1.0× average.
YTD −58.2%. It was about −4.6% in after-hours trading.
CEG $264.58, +2.52%.
Range $257.00–$266.89. It closed at its highest level since 10/21 and is 1.1% below its 10/5 close.
YTD −25.1%. It was about −1.7% in after-hours trading.
BWXT $137.93, +2.20%.
Range $134.01–$139.61. It closed at its highest level since 10/13.
It is $2.58 above its 10/5 close, the first tracked name back above that level since CEG’s one-day return on 10/21. YTD −20.2%.
OKLO $26.81, −1.14%.
Range $26.16–$27.72. YTD −62.6%.
It was about −3.2% in after-hours trading.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
LITE $919.53, +0.61%.
It opened at $950.00 (+3.9%) and reached $978.40 (+7.1%) before fading to close up less than 1%.
Volume was 7.40M, about 1.6× average. YTD +149.5%. It was about −4.2% in after-hours trading.
The Marvell report: Bloomberg reported late 10/28 that Marvell is in advanced talks to acquire Lumentum, citing people familiar with the matter. A deal could come as soon as next week. No terms have been disclosed, and no final agreement has been reached. Before today’s move, LITE’s market cap was about $82.8B and MRVL’s about $220.7B. MRVL fell −13.24% to $218.34.
COHR $237.22, −0.99%. It was about −6.4% in after-hours trading.
GLW $128.88, −1.77%.
AAOI $79.19, −3.69%.
CIEN $349.45, −3.79%.
CRDO $165.29, −4.84%.
The pattern: the market treated LITE as the target and MRVL as the payer. Most of LITE’s early gain faded, and the other optics names fell 1–5%.
Since 10/6: the six names are down −26.3% on average, against −18.3% for the nuclear basket.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: after-hours follow-through on AMZN
Fri 10/30: CCJ Q3, the first quarterly report from a basket company in this run. Also our Week in Review edition
Late Oct / early Nov: a possible Marvell–Lumentum announcement (per Bloomberg; unconfirmed) · GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
Nov 3: U.S. midterms
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 (timing may change if a deal is announced) · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
06 · Desk Read
i. The uranium price is now moving on its own. Three straight NAV gains, an implied spot price of about $92, and a discount that has narrowed by about 350bp from last week’s −15.23% mean the commodity has caught a bid. That is separate from the AI-power story. CCJ’s results tomorrow are the first chance to hear from a producer whether contracting and term pricing back up what spot is doing. Our test: does CCJ describe the term market (long-term contracts) in terms that match a long-term price of about $96? Or does it point to softer demand from utilities?
ii. The hyperscaler week came down to free cash flow. Here is how the market treated the four reports:
META raised its capex range and announced a $95B equity raise.
MSFT came in under its capex estimate and gave the gain back the next day.
GOOGL signaled a big 2027 step-up alongside negative free cash flow.
AMZN held its capex plan, with −$42B of trailing free cash flow and nearly triple the debt.
The common thread is that investors now care about how the buildout gets funded, not about the size of the capex numbers. That’s a slower-moving headwind for the AI-power trade than last week’s sentiment swings. Utilities and the cash-earning nuclear names (CEG, BWXT) held up well in the session, but after hours they followed AMZN lower.
iii. Inside nuclear, the old ranking is back. On Tuesday the fuel names led on the uranium price. Today the names whose business doesn’t depend on commodity prices (BWXT, CEG) led, plus a rebound in SMR. BWXT is back above its 10/5 close, CEG is 1.1% below its own, and the basket is 12.8% below where it stood before the Google deal, an improvement of about 6 points this week. The groups held for an eighteenth session.
Corrections
None for Edition 023.
SPUT timing: today’s Sprott print posted the same day, so this edition reports the official 10/29 discount, not an estimate. The 10/28 figure (−11.94%) is derived from the change in NAV.
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. “Basket vs 10/5” is the equal-weight average of each name’s change since its 10/5 close. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. “Highest/lowest close since” and YTD figures use daily closes over the trailing year; the YTD base is the 12/31/2025 close. After-hours prices were pulled at about 8pm ET and are thinly traded. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Friday 10/30, post-close (with Week in Review)