Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
SEQH Capital Research · Trading & Research Desk
Edition 007 · Monday, October 5, 2026 · Post-close
Prices as of 4:00 PM ET close unless stamped otherwise.
The Tape in 60 Seconds
The 10-year hit another high, and for the first time in our log, nuclear didn’t sell off.
The 10-year Treasury rose 3.8 bp to 5.315%, a new 52-week high and the highest since 2002. The 2-year was unchanged, so the gap between short and long yields widened to ~49 bp. The Nasdaq set a record close at 27,477.31 (+1.05%), led by Nvidia. The S&P 500 rose 0.66% to 7,773.95, now 0.55% below its August record, and the Dow added 0.18%.
The change was in our coverage. Every prior session in our log with long yields rising saw nuclear underperform. Today the five-name nuclear basket gained 0.59%, roughly in line with the S&P. CCJ led at +2.69% and closed near its high, the opposite of Friday’s open-to-close fade. SPUT’s discount narrowed for a fifth straight session to −11.00%, and implied spot uranium ticked up for the first time in over a week. After the close, BWXT’s BANR microreactor was selected for a transportable nuclear plant in New Brunswick. In optics, Lumentum set a new 52-week high of $1,124.40 intraday before giving back ~3%.
Three takeaways:
Long yields rose and nuclear held. The 10-year made a new high, and the basket still finished within 7 bp of the S&P. One session isn’t a trend, but it’s the first time in our log that the relationship broke.
Physical uranium is firming up. SPUT’s discount has narrowed 263 bp in five sessions, and implied spot moved to $89.70.
The size gap is stark. Lumentum’s $97.9B market cap is now 1.53x our entire five-name nuclear basket ($64.1B combined).
Key numbers
US 10-year: 5.315% · ▲ 3.8 bp · new 52-week high
Gap between 10-year and 2-year yields: ~49 bp · the 2-year was flat
Nuclear basket (5 names): +0.59% vs. S&P +0.66%
SPUT discount: −11.00% (10/2) · fifth straight session narrowing
U3O8 spot (SPUT-implied): $89.70/lb · ▲ $0.11
LITE intraday high: $1,124.40 · new 52-week high
01 · Macro Tape
S&P 500: 7,773.95 · ▲ 51.23 (+0.66%) · range 7,727.59–7,794.35
Dow Jones: 51,267.90 · ▲ 90.94 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq Composite: 27,477.31 · ▲ 286.45 (+1.05%) · record close, intraday 27,544.07
Russell 2000: 2,847.14 · ▲ 0.50%
VIX: 15.52 · ▲ 1.37%
WTI crude (Nov): $89.19 · ▼ $1.92 (−2.11%)
Gold: $4,168.40 · ▲ 0.15%
Treasury yields:
2-year: 4.823% · ▼ 0.2 bp
5-year: 5.064% · ▲ 0.9 bp
7-year: 5.190% · ▲ 2.3 bp
10-year: 5.315% · ▲ 3.8 bp · new 52-week high
Read: short-term yields barely moved while long-term yields rose. That pattern says the market isn’t pricing more Fed hikes after Friday’s weak jobs report. It’s demanding more return for holding long bonds: higher real yields, heavy government borrowing and competition for capital. Yahoo Finance notes the U.S. 10-year has risen more than 110 bp in this sell-off, vs. roughly 80 bp for UK gilts and 60 bp for German Bunds. This matters for our sector because nuclear projects are valued off long-term yields, not the Fed funds rate. That’s why today’s result is worth noting: long yields made a new high, and the nuclear basket didn’t fall behind the market.
02 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
Physical market: Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U.U / SRUUF)
NAV per unit (10/2): $21.54 · ▲ $0.03 (+0.12%)
Market price (10/2 close): $19.17, a −11.00% discount
Discount path: −13.63% (9/28) → −13.21% → −12.99% → −11.69% → −11.00%, a 263 bp narrowing in five sessions
U3O8 held: 81,697,348 lb, unchanged
Uranium value at market: $7.328B
SPUT-implied spot: $89.70/lb, ▲ $0.11 and the first uptick since 9/23
Implied $/lb at market price: ≈ $80.76, excluding cash, vs. $78.65 on 9/29
NAV YTD: +8.81%
Read: through the week of 9/28 the discount was narrowing because the trust’s price was rising while spot stayed flat. Friday was the first day both moved up together: NAV +0.12% and the trust’s price +0.89%. To reach a premium, which is when SPUT can issue new units and buy uranium, its price still needs to gain about 11% relative to NAV. Five straight sessions of narrowing is the most consistent run in our tracking.
Equities (Monday close)
CCJ: $87.47 · ▲ 2.69%. Range 85.32–88.63 on 3.03M shares. It opened at $85.92 and closed 1.3% below the high, the reverse of Friday’s pattern of opening up and fading. At a $50B Westinghouse valuation, Cameco’s ~$24.5B stake equals about 66% of its $37.09B market cap.
LEU: $141.44 · ▲ 1.56%. Range 139.50–143.85 on 635K shares. After hours $142.54 (+0.78%). 4.2% above its 52-week low of $135.75.
UEC: $9.35 · ▲ 0.54%. Range 9.29–9.65 on 9.24M shares. Market cap $4.63B.
03 · Reactors, SMRs & Power
BWXT · BANR microreactor selected for a Canadian transportable nuclear plant (announced 4:05 PM ET)
The project: Prodigy Clean Energy, Pabineau First Nation and Eel River Bar First Nation selected BWXT’s BANR reactor for a transportable nuclear power plant in Belledune, New Brunswick.
Size: two BANR units, each designed for 75 MW thermal / 22 MW electric, in a plant of up to 50 MW electric. BANR is a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor running on HALEU TRISO fuel.
Status: operation targeted for the early 2030s. The parties are working toward a definitive agreement covering engineering, licensing, financing and deployment.
Manufacturing: the reactors would be built principally at BWXT’s Ontario facilities, with support from Kinectrics.
Read: this is a selection, not yet a contract. It adds a commercial customer to BANR alongside the U.S. Army’s Janus program (August). It also adds another future buyer of HALEU fuel, the market LEU is building capacity for.
Equities
BWXT: $135.35 · ▲ 0.36%. Range 134.83–138.75 on 1.52M shares, 2.6% above Friday’s new 52-week low of $131.86. The BANR news hit after the close; after hours it traded at $136.50 (+0.85%).
OKLO: $35.97 · ▲ 0.28%. Range 35.64–36.71 on 7.63M shares. 4.6% above its 52-week low. Market cap $6.69B. Next earnings ~11/10.
SMR: $7.68 · ▼ 0.90%. Range 7.63–7.87. It was the only red name in our basket. Volume was 17.9M shares, the lowest of the seven sessions we’ve logged (vs. 25–30M most days last week). 6.5% above its 52-week low of $7.21.
Read: CCJ +2.7% and SMR −0.9% shows the same split as last week, at lower intensity. Names with cash flow and contracts get bought on firm days, and names without them don’t. SMR’s volume falling to a seven-session low while the price sits near its low suggests sellers are running out of shares to sell, not that buyers are stepping in.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
LITE is a verified close. COHR, AAOI and CRDO are Yahoo Finance prints taken after the close.
LITE: $1,091.67 · ▲ 0.58%. It set a new 52-week high of $1,124.40 intraday, above the prior $1,085.68, then closed 2.9% below it. Volume was 3.0M shares vs. a 4.65M average.
Size and performance: market cap $97.9B; up 196.2% YTD and 18.5% over five sessions.
Friday’s close: $1,085.42 (+3.79%).
Next earnings: Nov. 5.
COHR: $333.64 · ▼ 1.01%. Friday’s close was ≈$337.04, implied from today’s change (≈+5.6% Friday).
AAOI: $121.57 · ▲ 5.17%
CRDO: $212.48 · ▼ 2.82%
The size comparison:
Our five-name nuclear basket: CCJ $37.09B, BWXT $12.40B, OKLO $6.69B, UEC $4.63B, SMR $3.30B, for a total of $64.1B.
Lumentum alone: $97.9B, about 1.53x the five combined.
Both groups depend on demand from AI data centers. The difference is when that demand reaches revenue:
Optics: in this quarter’s revenue, with Lumentum’s fiscal Q1 guide at $1.225–1.275B.
Nuclear: mostly in the 2030s (Calvert Cliffs uprates in 2030–32, BANR in the early 2030s, the Korea-framework AP1000s later).
With the 10-year at 5.3%, the market is paying heavily for the nearer timing.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
TBD: BWXT–Prodigy definitive agreement for the Belledune plant (BWXT)
TBD: formal signing of the U.S.–Korea framework (CCJ, BEP)
Oct (TBD): possible Westinghouse public IPO filing (CCJ, BEP)
Oct 20–21: World Nuclear Supply Chain conference, Manila
Late Oct: FOMC decision
Fri 10/30: Cameco Q3 results (CCJ)
Mon 11/2, after close: BWX Technologies Q3 results (BWXT)
~Wed 11/4: Centrus Q3 results (LEU)
Thu 11/5: Lumentum fiscal Q1 results (confirmed); NuScale (~11/5, estimated)
Fri 11/6: October jobs report
~Tue 11/10: Oklo Q3 results (OKLO)
06 · Desk Read: What We’re Watching
i. Did rising long yields stop driving the nuclear trade? In every session of our log until today, rising long-term yields meant nuclear underperformed. Today the 10-year made a new high, and the basket finished within 7 bp of the S&P, led by CCJ closing near its high. One session doesn’t make a trend. If it holds for three to five sessions while the 10-year stays above 5.25%, it would suggest the yield-driven selling of nuclear has mostly run its course.
ii. SPUT’s discount is on its longest narrowing run in our tracking. It’s narrowed 263 bp in five sessions, and spot ticked up for the first time since 9/23. The trust still needs about 11% of relative gains to reach a premium, the level at which it can raise money and buy uranium again. We’re tracking the daily rate of narrowing. At the past week’s average pace (~53 bp per session), parity would take about four more weeks. That’s arithmetic, not a forecast.
iii. How the market is pricing timing. Lumentum alone is now worth 1.5x our five nuclear names combined. That doesn’t make either group cheap or expensive. It shows how the market is valuing near-term revenue vs. 2030s revenue at a 5.3% 10-year yield. Today’s BANR selection (early 2030s, no definitive contract yet) is the kind of news that doesn’t move nuclear valuations much in this rate environment. Earnings season, starting with Cameco on 10/30, is when nuclear names can show current numbers instead.
Correction to Edition 006 (Friday 10/2 closes): LITE closed at $1,085.42 (+3.79%), and COHR closed at ≈$337.04 (≈+5.6%, implied from Monday’s change). We published Thursday’s closes because Friday’s weren’t verified at publication.
Method
SPUT-implied spot = market value of U3O8 held ÷ pounds held.
$/lb at market = unit price ÷ pounds per unit (0.2374 lb), excluding cash.
Baskets are equal-weighted simple averages of verified closes. The nuclear basket is CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT.
Market caps are as reported by StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance at the close.
“Parity” arithmetic is a linear extrapolation of the trailing five-session average, not a forecast.
Where a close was not verified at publication, the line shows the last verified print with its stamp.
For informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures come from third-party sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed; verify before acting. Past performance does not indicate future results.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Tuesday 10/6, post-close