Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 014 · Wednesday, October 14, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
September CPI came in hot and the AI-infrastructure trade broke. The five-name nuclear basket fell −6.79%, its worst session of this run. Optics fell −9.21%. Every name we track closed within 2% of its low. UEC, LEU, OKLO and SMR made new 52-week lows for a third straight day, and CCJ closed at its lowest level since November 2025.
CPI rose 3.7% y/y against 3.6% expected. Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y, against 0.2% and 2.5% expected. Energy (Middle East) and shelter drove the miss. The S&P fell −1.11% for its first real move in four sessions. The Nasdaq fell −1.88%, the Russell 2000 −1.93%, and the Dow only −0.09% as health care (+2.4%) and staples (+2.2%) rose. Tech fell 3.0%.
Yesterday optics fell at the open and was bought back. Today that didn’t happen. Every optics name opened 1.6–3.8% lower and then lost another 3–9% before the close. They finished on average about 0.6% above their lows, compared with about 4.9% above them yesterday. The nuclear names followed the same path: every one closed below its open, and LEU (−10.67%) and SMR (−10.17%) fell more than 10%. Even CEG fell −5.49%, its worst day since this run began.
Three takeaways
Yesterday’s split didn’t last. The dip-buying in optics we flagged was gone in a day. The six optics names have now fallen −21.9% on average since Tuesday 10/6, and the nuclear basket −19.2%.
The quality ranking held for a sixth session, but now only CEG still keeps any of Tuesday’s gain. CEG ~36%, BWXT ~−9%, CCJ ~−108%, LEU ~−173%, UEC ~−217%, OKLO ~−269%, SMR ~−544%. BWXT closed below its 10/5 pre-spike level for the first time.
SPUT gave no support. Its discount widened 214bp to −13.76% on Tuesday’s data, the widest in our log. The units fell another −1.99% today to $18.21, the lowest close since 7/31.
Key numbers
Five-name nuclear basket: −6.79%. S&P −1.11%. Gap −568bp. Three-session total −13.18%
Optics, six names: −9.21%. Nasdaq −1.88%
Lowest closes in a year: UEC $7.70 · LEU $119.95 · OKLO $29.04 · SMR $5.83 · URA $35.54
CCJ $81.47, lowest close since 11/21/2025
LITE $896.33, 21.6% below its $1,143.00 intraday record (set 10/9)
SPUT discount −13.76% (Tuesday 10/13 data), wider by 214bp
YTD: OKLO −59.5% · SMR −58.9% · LEU −50.6% · UEC −34.1%. LITE +143.2% · AAOI +147.3%
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 51,621.48, −48.62 (−0.09%)
S&P 500 7,718.94, −86.51 (−1.11%)
Nasdaq Composite 26,692.87, −511.51 (−1.88%)
Russell 2000 2,729.53, −53.84 (−1.93%)
CPI (September):
Headline +0.6% m/m (in line) and 3.7% y/y (3.6% expected).
Core +0.3% m/m (0.2% expected) and 2.6% y/y (2.5% expected).
Energy drove the headline number. Shelter pushed core above expectations, adding about 0.15 points by one strategist’s estimate.
This is the last CPI report before the FOMC meeting on Oct 27–28.
Levels:
The S&P closed at its lowest level since 10/1 and is 1.3% below its 10/6 record close of 7,818.93.
The Nasdaq closed at its lowest since 9/18 and is 3.3% below its record close.
Rates: two sources disagree on today’s 10-yr move.
The CBOE 10-yr index (^TNX) printed 5.19% (−3bp) at its 3pm ET close, after trading as high as 5.33%right after CPI. That high is 3bp below the 52-week high of 5.36%.
Midday reports had the cash 10-yr up about 6bp at 5.26–5.28%. (Close unverified; see notes.)
Sectors: health care +2.44%, staples +2.21%, energy +0.65%. Tech −3.00%, communication services −1.32%, industrials −0.96%.
Volatility: VIX closed at 16.87, up 10.5% from 15.27. The intraday high was 17.45.
Banks:
BAC earned $0.91/share against $1.10 expected. That included a $1.2B regulatory fine over anti-money-laundering failures; excluding it, EPS was $1.08. Revenue was $30.0B against about $30.6B expected. The stock fell as much as 9% intraday.
MS also reported today.
AI and chips:
KOSPI has fallen about 12% over five sessions.
MU fell −4.10% to $914.13, its lowest close since 8/24.
ASML reported record Q3 sales and raised its full-year outlook.
CoreWeave fell about 15% by midday (midday print).
Commodities: Brent traded above $105–106 after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities. WTI was about $95 and gold about $4,107 (−1.7%). (Intraday snapshots.)
02 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
LEU $119.95, −10.67%.
Range 119.32–130.78. Volume 1.43M, 2.5× Tuesday’s.
It set a new 52-week low of $119.32 and closed 7.73% below its open. YTD −50.6%.
It is now 39.9% below the $199.64 offering price and 72.5% below its highest close of the past year ($436.00).
UEC $7.70, −6.55%.
Range 7.58–8.08. Volume 13.9M. It closed 3.99% below its open. YTD −34.1%.
It closed at its lowest level of the past year for a third straight day, and is −16.2% over three sessions ($9.19 → $7.70).
CCJ $81.47, −5.43%.
Range 81.22–85.04. Volume 5.58M, the most since 10/6 and 2.3× yesterday’s. It closed 3.89% below its open. YTD −11.0%.
This was its lowest close since 11/21/2025 ($79.44), and only 2.6% above its lowest close of the past year.
Yesterday CCJ held flat while UEC broke. Today CCJ fell too.
URA $35.54, −4.92%.
Range 35.28–36.81. Volume 6.82M. YTD −16.8%.
It closed at its lowest level of the past year. Today it fell less than CCJ, UEC or LEU.
SPUT (Tuesday 10/13 data; first print since Friday)
NAV $21.54 (unchanged). Price $18.58. Discount −13.76%, wider by 214bp from −11.62%.
Implied spot about $89.73/lb, essentially unchanged. At the market price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $78.26/lb, a gap of about $11.47/lb.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) closed at $18.21 (−1.99%), the lowest since 7/31. If NAV held at $21.54, the discount would be about −15.5% (our estimate; today’s official print posts tonight).
What this means: Edition 012 asked whether Friday’s narrowing would hold. It didn’t. Uranium itself, as measured by NAV, isn’t moving. What’s falling is the price investors will pay for exposure to it, in the vehicle and the equities alike.
03 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
SMR $5.83, −10.17%.
Range 5.72–6.32. Volume 42.0M, up from 29.6M yesterday. It closed 6.72% below its open. YTD −58.9%.
This was its first close below $6 in at least a year.
It is −27.3% since 10/6 and −89.1% from its highest close of the past year ($53.43).
OKLO $29.04, −8.62%.
Range 28.86–31.09. Volume 13.2M, up 48% from yesterday. It closed 5.87% below its open. YTD −59.5%.
This was its first close below $30 in at least a year.
It is −24.7% since 10/6 and −83.1% from its highest close of the past year ($171.56).
CEG $279.54, −5.49%.
Range 277.83–294.50. Volume 3.43M. It closed 4.48% below its open. YTD −20.9%.
This was its worst day of the run, and its lowest close since 10/5 ($267.62), the day before the Google deal.
That cut its market value by roughly $5.8B. The loss is more than twice SMR’s entire market cap (about $2.5B). CEG is now around $99B.
It still keeps about 36% of Tuesday’s gain, the only tracked name that keeps any.
BWXT $134.44, −3.18%.
Range 133.80–139.76. Volume 1.03M. It closed 2.58% below its open. YTD −22.2%.
It closed 9 cents above its lowest close of the past year ($134.35 on 9/28), and below its 10/5 close of $135.35 for the first time since the spike.
It again had the smallest decline in the basket.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
AAOI $86.22, −11.82%.
Opened −2.88%, then fell another 9.20% to the close. YTD +147.3%.
It closed at its lowest level since 7/29.
It is down −33.8% since 10/6 ($130.16 → $86.22), the worst decline of anything we track.
CIEN $359.60, −10.19%.
Opened −1.63%, then fell another 8.70%. YTD +53.8%.
It closed at its lowest level since 9/30.
CRDO $179.23, −9.62%.
Opened −3.79%, then fell another 6.06%. YTD +24.6%.
It closed at its lowest level since 9/18, and just 23 cents above its low ($179.00).
LITE $896.33, −9.28%.
Opened −3.29%, then fell another 6.20%. YTD +143.2%.
It closed at its lowest level since 9/17, and $2.45 above its low ($893.88).
It is 21.6% below its 10/9 intraday record of $1,143.00, and 20.9% below its record close ($1,133.40, 10/6).
COHR $263.32, −9.19%.
Opened −3.05%, then fell another 6.33%. YTD +42.7%.
It closed at its lowest level since 7/31.
GLW $140.89, −5.15%.
Opened −2.30%, then fell another 2.92%. YTD +60.9%.
It closed at its lowest level since 7/31, which is before GLW’s July earnings selloff ended.
The pattern was the reverse of yesterday. Yesterday every name recovered 3–7% from its low. Today every name fell steadily after the open and closed near its low.
Since 10/6: the six optics names are down −21.9% on average and the nuclear basket −19.2%. Even after a 22% pullback, LITE is still up about 2.4× YTD and AAOI about 2.5×. The optics names are giving back part of very large gains; the nuclear developers are falling from levels already down about 60% YTD.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: SPUT print for 10/14
Thu 10/15: TSM Q3 · BK, SCHW, PNC, USB Q3
Fri 10/16: CFG, MTB, RF, TFC Q3 · monthly options expiration
Late Oct: GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Oct 27–28: FOMC. The hot CPI report has raised the possibility of a hike this month. CME FedWatch put the odds of a hold at about 78% (time of reading unconfirmed)
Oct 30: CCJ Q3
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
06 · Desk Read
i. We said yesterday that optics were being bought and nuclear wasn’t. Today that read failed. The bounce in optics didn’t carry into a second day. Once CPI pushed rates and inflation back into focus, both legs of the AI-infrastructure trade fell together and closed at their lows. Closing at the lows on rising volume (CCJ 2.3×, LEU 2.5×, SMR and OKLO both up from yesterday) is consistent with forced or end-of-day selling, not a single headline.
ii. The ranking holds, but owning reactors no longer protects against losses. For a sixth straight session the order was unchanged: CEG, then BWXT, CCJ, LEU, UEC, OKLO and SMR. But CEG fell 5.5%, and BWXT dropped below its pre-spike close. When rates jump this way, even names with cash flow fall. They just fall less. What the ranking still shows is that the spread between them keeps widening: CEG keeps about 36% of Tuesday’s gain and SMR is about 544% below it.
iii. Uranium itself isn’t confirming the selloff. NAV was flat, so implied spot hasn’t moved (about $89.73/lb). Investors are paying less for every form of exposure: SPUT units at about $78/lb, the CCJ/UEC/LEU equities, and URA. Over three sessions, the price of uranium exposure has fallen while the uranium itself hasn’t. Tonight’s SPUT print, TSM on Thursday, and whether the 10-yr holds below the 5.33% post-CPI high are the next three things to watch.
Corrections
CRDO 10/13 open: it opened at $191.11, a −4.84% gap, not $191.96 (−4.42%) as printed in Edition 013. The point that optics fell at the open and recovered is unchanged.
10/13 ranges, revised in the consolidated data: CCJ low $85.20 (not $85.22). BWXT range $136.44–$139.80 (not $136.45–$139.79).
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). “Lowest close since” and YTD figures use daily closes over the trailing year; the YTD base is the 12/31/2025 close. CEG’s market value is scaled from its last reported cap. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates and intraday snapshots are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
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