October Macro Trend Report

Nov 01, 2025

∙ Paid

SEQH Capital Research

Date: November 1, 2025

Equities Extend Rally: S&P 500 up +2.3% (monthly), +16.3% YTD, six months of gains even as volatility persisted and market breadth narrowed toward mega-cap tech.
Fed Cuts, Stays Hawkish: Fed Funds brought to 3.75%-4.00% with October’s 25bps cut; Powell cautions against further auto-easing as the government data blackout and persistent core inflation obscure the path forward.
Growth & Labor Moderate: GDP tracking models suggest Q3 annualized growth between 2.4%–3.9%, but headline payroll gains for August revised sharply lower. Unemployment steady at 4.35%, labor market cooling.
Inflation Sticky: Headline and core CPI hold at 3.0% YoY; shelter and services keep inflation above the Fed’s 2% comfort zone. Producer input costs (tariffs, commodities) remain an overhang.
Housing & Consumers: Listings up, prices flat, mortgage rates ease to 6.17%. Consumer confidence softens; holiday spending intent down.
Commodities Diverge: Oil slips ($60.57, -1.46% MoM), gold surges ($3,997, record highs), crypto falls (BTC -4% MoM, worst “Uptober” in years).
Geopolitics & Trade: Temporary truce between US and China eases tariffs for one year but leaves core disputes unresolved. Protracted US government shutdown delays critical data and weighs on sentiment.

Growth: Q4 GDP to slow as headwinds from the shutdown, trade tensions, and labor softening offset seasonal equity strength.
Fed Pause: No December cut expected; cautious messaging with high sensitivity to incoming inflation and labor data.
Inflation: Moderation likely toward 2.8%–2.9% by year-end; risks mainly on the upside.
Equities: Historically strong in November but concentrated leadership, stretched valuations, and macro headwinds suggest caution.
Risks: Extended shutdown, fragile US-China truce, and potential for Fed policy error remain front and center.

Equities: Emphasize quality/defensive sectors (Healthcare, Financials, selective Tech); be mindful of valuation and concentration risk.
Fixed Income: Favor short-duration, investment-grade credit and maintain some flexibility for tactical shifts.
Alternatives: Gold allocation up to 5% maintained; crypto overweight.
Risk Mgmt: Downside hedges in place; maintain cash allocation for tactical buys.
Monitor Closely: Watch for shifts in macro datapoints (CPI, jobs, housing, trade) as shutdown delays lift.

Access the in-depth October Macro Report and November Forecast here: