SIVERS SEMICONDUCTORS - Q2 2026 UPDATE

Jun 26, 2026

∙ Paid

SEQH CAPITAL RESEARCH - TEAR SHEET
SIVERS SEMICONDUCTORS - Q2 2026 UPDATE: VALIDATED, MORE EXPENSIVE, STILL HIGH RISK

WHAT THIS NOTE SAYS

SEQH reaffirms OVERWEIGHT / High Risk on Sivers, but the framing has changed: the stock is no longer a cheap optionality story and is now an expensive but better-validated AI photonics and mmWave platform.
The June update argues that the thesis improved fundamentally through a $799 million opportunity pipeline, GlobalFoundries reference-design validation, and an $8.2 million ALL.SPACE production order, even as Q1 results, cash burn, and PCAOB-related restatements made the accounting and risk profile less forgiving.

What changed

Since the April note, the stock moved from SEK 28.36 to SEK 67.00, a gain of about 136 percent, despite also suffering a 39 percent drawdown from the June 3 peak of SEK 110.00.
Q1 2026 revenue came in at SEK 61.9 million, down 22 percent year over year, and adjusted EBITDA was -SEK 13.8 million, which SEQH attributes mainly to U.S. government shutdown and defense timing plus FX, not to a thesis break.
The more important change was commercial validation: the pipeline expanded from about $453 million to $799 million, GlobalFoundries adopted Sivers laser arrays for SCALE optical-engine reference designs, and ALL.SPACE placed a named $8.2 million production order for 2027.

SEQH’s central view is that InP laser scarcity is now strategic, not thematic, with lasers, substrates, and yields increasingly acting as real bottlenecks in AI optical scaling.
Sivers is still attractive because it has multiple independent revenue vectors rather than one product bet: automotive LiDAR, pluggables and LRO lasers, CPO and NPO external light sources, SATCOM terminals, Tier-1 FWA, and defense arrays.
The report says 2027 is the real conversion year, when investors should expect the debate to shift from whether the technology is credible to whether programs actually turn into manufacturable volume.

Q1 photonics revenue was SEK 17.8 million, down 32 percent year over year, with segment EBITDA around -SEK 7.6 to -7.7 million, so near-term reported numbers were weak even as strategic positioning improved.
SEQH sees the GlobalFoundries release as the highest-quality new photonics data point since April because it puts Sivers inside a silicon-photonics reference-design context, not just a standalone component evaluation.
The Glasgow plus WIN manufacturing setup remains the core architecture: Glasgow provides owned InP process control and qualification credibility, while WIN gives the volume path needed for 2027 and beyond.
In SEQH’s base case, photonics revenue rises from SEK 93 million in FY25 to SEK 140 million in FY26, SEK 335 million in FY27, and SEK 850 million in FY30, while the bull case reaches SEK 2.12 billion by FY30.

Wireless remains the near-term revenue engine, with Q1 wireless sales of SEK 44.1 million, though EBITDA was still -SEK 10.5 million and the mix stayed heavily weighted toward NRE revenue rather than recurring hardware.
The most important new wireless proof point is the ALL.SPACE $8.2 million 2027 production order, which turns the SATCOM thesis from forecast dependency into a named production anchor.
Other updates, including the Tachyon $1.5 million 60GHz development partnership, Year-2 Microelectronics Commons $6.6 million funding, and the Tier-1 telecom FWA track for end-2026, reinforce the idea that wireless could become the cleaner validator of the 2027 revenue bridge.

The annual report restatement changed the quality of the accounting base more than the revenue base: FY25 revenue moved to SEK 306.6 million from SEK 304.1 million, but adjusted EBITDA reset to -SEK 50.3 million, EBIT to -SEK 177.8 million, and reported equity to SEK 949.8 million.
Q1 operating cash flow was -SEK 49.2 million, and cash at March 31 was just SEK 26.6 million before the SEK 125 million directed issue, so cash burn remains one of the central risks.
SEQH’s updated base case now models group revenue at SEK 390 million in FY26, SEK 720 million in FY27, SEK 1.05 billion in FY28, and SEK 1.75 billion in FY30, with a bull path to SEK 3.05 billion by FY30.

At SEK 67.00 and 319.95 million registered shares, the headline equity value is about SEK 21.44 billion, equal to roughly 70x FY25 sales, 55x FY26E base sales, and 30x FY27E base sales before cash adjustments.
SEQH’s updated 12-month framework is SEK 35 bear, SEK 82 base, SEK 145 bull, and a probability-weighted target of SEK 86, which implies about 28 percent upside from the June 25 close.
The note is explicit that the market has already capitalized much of the strategic narrative, which is why the base case upside is now more moderate even though the underlying business validation improved.

The biggest risk is no longer that the thesis is obscure, but that the stock now discounts several successful ramps before the P&L has proved them.
SEQH highlights valuation compression, cash burn, PCAOB and U.S. listing timing, execution across LiDAR, SATCOM, CPO, FWA and defense, customer concentration, Achilles / DDM overhang, short interest, and dilution as the core risk set.
The next checkpoints are the August 6, 2026 H1 report, Tier-1 FWA product milestones in H2 2026, Q4 2026 LiDAR readiness, possible Nasdaq New York filing activity, and 2027 qualification progress across Jabil, GlobalFoundries, POET, and Ayar.

The Full PDF report with deeper insight, valuation metrics, and further outlook projection is available below: