This Week's Edge
3/2/26
This Week’s Edge
SEQH Capital Research | March 2, 2026
The Setup
Uranium spot is trading around $88/lb after pulling back ~13% from the two-year high of $101.50 hit in late January. The retreat tracks a broader dollar rebound and cooling in industrial commodities, not a shift in fundamentals. Year-to-date, yellowcake is still up nearly 10%, and remains 32% higher year-over-year. The term price sits at $88/lb, its highest level since May 2008. We are in backwardation. The structural bid has not changed.
What Moved Last Week
Spot consolidation continues. U3O8 traded in a narrow band, with 200klb lots transacting at $89.50/lb for March delivery at ConverDyn. TradeTech’s mid-term indicator stands at $93/lb, long-term at $90/lb.
Shaw & Partners raised its U3O8 price deck to $175/lb for 2027 and $200/lb for 2028, with a long-term assumption of $120/lb from 2032, up from $90/lb previously. The broker argues structural supply deficits could exceed 200Mlb per year.
Cameco (CCJ) released 2025 production figures. Full-year output came in at 21.0M lbs U3O8 (Cameco’s share), exceeding revised guidance but 10% below 2024’s 23.4M lbs. For 2026, CCJ is planning 17.5–18.0M lbs at Cigar Lake and 14.0–16.5M lbs at McArthur River/Key Lake on a 100% basis.
Kazatomprom reiterated its 2026 guidance at 71.5–75.4M lbs U3O8 on a 100% basis, roughly 10% below earlier nominal targets of 85.2M lbs. The world’s largest producer continues to prioritize value over volume, explicitly stating current pricing does not incentivize a return to 100% production levels.
DOE safety rules for experimental reactors went public after NPR’s reporting forced disclosure. The rules significantly reduce environmental and security standards to meet Trump’s July 4 deadline for three reactors reaching criticality. Antares Nuclear and Radiant Industries are on track for summer activation, Aalo has completed Final Design Review.
The Structural Picture
Three forces are converging and none of them have a quick fix:
Supply can’t self-correct. Mines currently cover only 74–90% of reactor demand. Even if every known development project is funded and built to nameplate capacity, cumulative production will still fall short of existing demand over the next 10–15 years. Reported capacity figures overstate actual output by approximately 30% due to ISR constraints, grade deterioration, and operational complexity. Kazakhstan’s December 2025 amendments give Kazatomprom priority rights over all future exploration licenses and require 90% ownership for production extensions, effectively nationalizing the greenfield pipeline. Laramide Resources abandoned its Chu-Sarysu Basin project immediately afterward.
Contracting is a coiled spring. Utilities under-contracted for the 13th straight year in 2025, securing just 116M lbs against an estimated 150M lb annual replacement rate. Q4 2025 saw 72M lbs contracted, over half the year’s total, signaling the beginning of a catch-up cycle. Deferred procurement doesn’t vanish; it accumulates as larger future volumes that must be secured at higher prices with fewer options.
Demand acceleration is structural. AI data center power consumption surged ~73% between 2023 and 2024, reaching ~415 TWh globally. The IEA projects data centers will account for over 20% of electricity demand growth in advanced economies by 2030. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google have all signed nuclear offtake agreements, Amazon alone has deals for 1.9 GW from Susquehanna plus SMR projects; Google has a 500 MW deal with Kairos Power. The executive order targeting 400 GW of U.S. nuclear capacity by 2050 would roughly require doubling today’s entire global uranium production just for the U.S..
Policy Catalysts on the Board
Section 232 on critical minerals, Trump’s January 14 proclamation explicitly includes uranium, directing Commerce and USTR to negotiate agreements that may include price floors for critical mineral trade. The 180-day review window expires mid-July.
$2.7B DOE enrichment funding announced to strengthen domestic uranium enrichment services over the next decade.
Reactor Pilot Program, three experimental reactors are targeted for criticality by July 4, 2026. Valar Atomics transported its prototype to Utah aboard a C-17 on Feb 15.
Arizona SMR legislation, six bills introduced to accelerate SMR construction, including provisions allowing data centers to co-locate with small modular reactors.
Equities Snapshot
Uranium mining equities surged 39.5% in January alone (Northshore Global Uranium Mining Index), with juniors up 45.3%. Since then, a partial giveback, URNM is at $71.89 NAV as of Feb 27, down 7.1% over the trailing month but up 33.8% over three months. URA (Global X Uranium ETF) shows a 1-year return of 71.0% at NAV.
Names on the radar: CCJ continues to guide conservatively on production, which supports pricing. NXE (NexGen Energy) remains the premier development-stage asset with Arrow. UEC and URG offer pure-play U.S. production leverage. LEU (Centrus Energy) is the domestic enrichment play that benefits directly from DOE funding. On the reactor/SMR side, OKLO, NNE (Nano Nuclear), SMR (NuScale), and BWXT are positioned across the advanced reactor buildout. CEG and TLN sit at the intersection of nuclear fleet ownership and AI data center demand. ASPI (ASP Isotopes) remains speculative but offers enrichment optionality.
The Edge
The pullback from $101 to $88 is noise against a structural deficit that is widening, not narrowing. Kazatomprom won’t produce at full capacity. Cameco is running below 2024 levels. Western-accessible supply is approximately one-third of global production. Contracting catch-up hasn’t even started in earnest, when it does, term prices reprice higher and equities follow.
The Section 232 180-day clock is the near-term catalyst to watch. If it results in uranium price floors or trade-restricting measures, the incentive pricing framework resets permanently higher. Meanwhile, the physical market remains tight enough that Sprott added 4M lbs to its uranium fund in January alone.
This is a duration regime, not a trade. Size accordingly.
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