Tip Sheet 9/30/25
Date: 30 September 2025 | 07:30 ET
Distribution: Substack/Full Client – Eyes Only
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Bankruptcy-driven volume spike in WOLF dominates pre-market risk metrics.
NVDA and TSLA remain the largest gamma-weighted names; micro moves drive macro index P&L.
Quantum and battery names (QS, IONQ, RGTI, QBTS) entering catalyst-dense phase; dispersion widening.
Pre-market volume is 11 % of 20-day ADV; liquidity gaps likely on open.
I. IMMEDIATE RISK EVENTS
WOLF – Wolfspeed Inc
Price: 26.32 | Δ +19.1 % | Volume: 2.1 m (3.8 % of 20-day ADV)
Status: Debtor-in-possession; restructuring plan filed 27 Sep 25.
Actionable:
– Equity stub is an option on residual value; Black-Scholes implied vol 185 %.
– Bond market signal: 8.5 % ’28 notes trade 42-44 vs 39 yesterday → 5 pt move implies 12 % higher recovery.
– Size limit: ≤ 20 bps portfolio gross; hard stop at 21.50 (liquidation print 24 Sep).
– Court docket 9:30 a.m. tomorrow (confirmation hearing); release any intraday position before 14:00 ET.
