TIPSHEET 10/10/25
PRE-MARKET TIPSHEET – 10 Oct 2025 | 08:00 AM EST
Desk: TMT / Clean-Tech / Crypto / AI-Infrastructure
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MACRO & CROSS-SECTOR SET-UP ================================================================ • PPI Final Demand m/m 0.0 % (vs 0.2 % est) – second dovish print in 24 h; 2-yr yield 3.54 % (-8 bp), 10-yr 3.62 % (-7 bp).
• DXY 99.8 (-0.4 %) – 12-week low; Gold $2,648 new ATH – real-rates keep collapsing.
• Fed-dated OIS now pricing 58 bp cut by Dec-25 (+6 bp vs yesterday) – “50/50” for 50 bp on 30-Oct.
• VIX 14.9 (-0.9 vol), QQQ gamma-net +$2.8 bn (call-heavy) – 400-405 magnet into OPEX tomorrow.
• Today’s catalyst runway:
– 08:30 CPI revision (annual benchmark re-splice) – low risk event
– 10:00 U-Mich sentiment (prelim) – inflation-expectations component watched
– 11:00 30-yr bond reopening results – tail-risk if >2 bp tail
– 13:00 Fed’s Barkin (Richmond) – last speaker before blackout
================================================================ 2. PRE-MARKET FLOW MAP (dark-pool & ATS prints >$5 m)
TICKER % VWAP-DISC. NOTES
LAES +9.5 % 8.0 m shrs = 15 × ADV – 2.1 m block crossed 06:49 at 6.60 (JPM-ATD); no borrow (fee 52 %), 8.5 m shrs short → classic float-raid.
APLD +22 % 1.2 m vs 30-d ADV 430 k – 350 k print 35.75; co tweet “2 GW AI-hosting MOU signed” 06:43 – headline unconfirmed; Oct-40 c bot 18 k vs OI 0.8 k.
RGTI +1.8 % 1.5 m – 400 k print 47.90; govt SBIR Phase-II grant PR dropped 07:02 – not yet on Bloomberg; 50-c 11-Oct 0.65 offers 7 × leverage.
IREN +4.5 % 1.0 m – 300 k print 66.50; BTC power-spread story; 67.5-c 11-Oct 1.20 – capture gamma.
CRML +10 % 829 k – 200 k print 16.20; lithium off-take rumor with Korean cathode maker – no refutation.
================================================================ 3. SINGLE-STOCK ALPHA SNAPSHOT
A. AI-DATACENTER POWER (GPU + HPC) • APLD 35.88 +22.5 % – 8.1 B cap; 2 GW MOU tweet – needs 8-K confirmation. Resistance 38.40 (gap-fill) then 44.80. Buy-write 40 c 2.10 vs 6 % ann. if stalled.
• IREN 66.83 +4.7 % – 200 MW expansion at Childress, TX – power-rate hedged $0.024 kWh. Break 67 → 72.
• SMR 41.60 +2.4 % – small-modular-reactor play; Senate energy bill mark-up next week. 43-c 11-Oct 0.85.
• INTC 38.55 +2 % – 18A Panther Lake client SKU details 08:00 webcast – watch for 15 % IPC uplift; 39-c 11-Oct 0.48.
B. QUANTUM / POST-NISQ
• RGTI 48.02 +1.9 % – grant headline; daily squeeze vs 45 gamma-shelf. Target 52.
• QBTS 35.69 +1.8 % – sympathy; 35-c 11-Oct 1.05 – cheap vs 68 % 5-day RV.
• QUBT 21.91 +2.8 % – 21.5-d VWAP 20.80 – support; 22.5-c 11-Oct 0.70.
C. BTC-EXPOSED (hash-price rally) • BITF 4.36 +4.6 % – hash-rate 8.5 EH/s; Oct-4.5 c 0.25 → delta-hedge lift to 4.70.
• CLSK 21.02 +4.6 % – 10 EH/s; 21.5-c 11-Oct 0.55.
• WULF 14.60 +7.4 % – 8.3 EH/s; 15-c 11-Oct 0.40 – break 15.20 → 16.80.
• CIFR 18.46 +2.6 % – 7.9 EH/s; 19-c 11-Oct 0.45.
D. eVTOL / AAM
• JOBY 17.18 +0.2 % – quiet; FAA G-1 issue paper still “this week” per company blog; 17.5-c 11-Oct 0.40 – cheap theta into headline.
• LAES 6.68 +9.7 % – SEALSQ is quantum-safe semiconductor (PQC) spin-out from STMicro; 3-d RSI 88 – parabolic; borrow fee 52 % – 8.5 m shrs short vs 53 m float → squeeze to 7.80 if 7.00 taken.
E. LITHIUM / BATTERY METALS
• CRML 16.31 +10.9 % – Korean cathode rumor; 17-c 11-Oct 0.55.
• LAC 8.20 +2 % – Thacker Pass ROD still pending – BLM calendar shows “week of 14 Oct”; 8.5-c 11-Oct 0.25.
================================================================ 4. OPTIONS PICK-LIST (exp ≤ 2 wks, 0.10 < mid-price < 2.00)
TICKER CONTRACT MID IV PREM. EFF.GEAR. THESIS
LAES 11-Oct 7 C 0.45 145 6.7 % 9.5× Short-squeeze
APLD 11-Oct 40 C 2.05 135 5.7 % 5.9× MOU kicker
RGTI 11-Oct 50 C 0.65 102 1.4 % 7.4× Grant gap
IREN 11-Oct 67.5 C 1.20 95 1.8 % 5.6× BTC power
BITF 11-Oct 4.5 C 0.25 105 5.7 % 7.0× Hash-price
CRML 11-Oct 17 C 0.55 118 3.4 % 6.1× Li rumor
================================================================ 5. TECHNICAL LEVELS (15-min anchored VWAP)
TICKER KEY SUP KEY RES OPEN-GAP FIB-EXT NOTES
LAES 6.20 7.00 +0.59 7.80 Parabolic – 5-m 8-EMA 6.35
APLD 33.0 38.4 +6.59 44.8 Gap-fill 38.4 – breaker = 40.0
RGTI 46.5 49.0 +0.91 52.0 Volume shelf 47.0 – intraday support
IREN 64.0 68.0 +2.98 72.5 Break 68 → 72.5 measured
BITF 4.20 4.50 +0.19 4.70 200-day 4.18 – now support
JOBY 17.0 17.8 +0.04 18.5 FAA headline = 19.0 / 16.2
================================================================ 6. EARNINGS / CORPORATE CALENDAR
TIME EVENT RELEVANT TICKER MARKET-CAP EST./WHISPER TRADE SET-UP
11-Oct BMO PLUG 3.5 B -0.19 EPS Straddle 14 % – cheap vs 17 % 8-qtr avg
11-Oct AMC JEF – – – financial vol sale
12-Oct BMO PLAY – – – consumer-discretionary read
14-Oct BMO TSM ADR sympathy – – watch for AI capex cue
================================================================ 7. CAPITAL-RAISE / INSIDER DRIP WATCH
• LAES – 53 m float; 18 % insider unlock 15 Oct – possible overhang after squeeze.
• APLD – $500 m shelf effective 01 Oct – model 8 % discount on any deal.
• BITF – $300 m shelf – quiet period ends 14 Oct – keep puts ready.
• RGTI – 14 % insider unlock 17 Oct – gamma-squeeze first, supply later.
================================================================ 8. ESG / REGULATORY SPEED-READ
• EU Battery Passport final text – no CRML impact.
• US Senate quantum amendment to NDAA – markup 15 Oct – RGTI, QBTS, QUBT eligible.
• DOE H2Hub – PLUG not named yesterday → stock -7 % after-hours; no new info today.
================================================================ 9. QUANT SIGNALS (SEQH proprietary)
TICKER SHORT-INT LOAN-F 50-d REV DEALFA QUANT-TRIG.
LAES 16 % 52 % +4.1 s.d. +3.8 SQUEEZE 6.80
APLD 12 % 15 % +3.5 s.d. +2.9 BREAKOUT 36.00
RGTI 14 % 14 % +1.6 s.d. +1.7 HOLD
BITF 18 % 22 % +1.4 s.d. +1.3 BREAKOUT 4.50
IREN 11 % 10 % +1.8 s.d. +1.9 HOLD
================================================================ 10. RISK SCENARIOS & HEDGES
A. U-Mich 1-yr inflation-expect > 3.2 % → rates snap-back – short IREN 65 p, long XLK 398 p.
B. APLD 8-K denied → stock back to 30 – straddle 3.80 fair; sell if IV >140 %.
C. BTC rejection $67 k → miner basket -8 % – long BITF 4 p 0.15, CLSK 20 p 0.40.
D. Quantum Senate amendment fails → RGTI gap 44 – own 48/45 put-spread 0.60.
================================================================ 11. TOP 3 TRADE TICKETS (07:05 AM ENTRY)
LAES – Buy 6.70 / sell 7 c 0.45 (zero-cost) – hold to borrow-fee easing or 7.30 squeeze.
APLD – Buy 35.90, add 34.50, stop 33.00, tgt 40.00 – needs 8-K confirmation; r:r 2.1×.
BITF – Buy 4.36, add 4.20, stop 4.05, tgt 4.70 – hash-price lever; 5-day RV 64 % vs IV 58 % → cheap.
================================================================ 12. POST-U-MICH GAME-PLAN MATRIX (10:05 AM)
INF-EXP < 2.8 % 2.8-3.1 % > 3.2 %
10-yr -3 to -5 bp -1 to +1 bp +4 to +6 bp
QQQ +0.7 % +0.2 % -0.8 %
WINNERS LAES, RGTI, PATH APLD, BITF, IREN Defensive, NVDA pin
LOSERS None, High-beta quantum
HEDGE None needed Sell QQQ 400 c Short XLK via 395 p
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