TIPSHEET 10/13/25
SEQH Capital Research
Daily Hot Sheet – 13 Oct 2025 (06:45 ET)
Distribution: MEMBERS ONLY – QUANT/EVENT DESK
SESSION SET-UP – MACRO & FLOW
• Columbus Day cash-equity session (bonds closed) → 17% lower NYSE volume vs 20-day baseline; dark-pool share 34% (5 ppt above avg).
• VIX 19.4 +1.2 vols, 1-week IV premium to RV 4.1σ (highest since Apr-23) → dealer short gamma increasing.
• Crypto beta basket (BITF, IREN, MARA etc.) 5-day realized 92% vs 6-mo 64%; ETF creations in BITF Fri +2.1 m shr (>2× avg) → passive hedge buy today.
• China EV subsidies renewed over weekend → NIO ADR +4.8% pre-mkt; Li Auto, XPeng not listed but correlation basket 0.78.
• Rare-earth export quota cut 7% for 2026 (MOFCOM) → MP, USAR, LAC gapping; USAR 23% move already pricing 1.8σ tail.
QUANT-LEVEL GRID – TOP 10 ORDER-BOOK SIGNALS
Ticker Spot Δ vs VWAP γC(0.25Δ) Dark % Short Δ (bps) IV 1-wk Δ Notes
BITF 4.79 +2.3σ 0.37 21% -41 +6.8 4.5 call wall Fri (OI 38 k) – 1.7 m share equiv
PLUG 3.62 +1.6σ 0.31 17% -22 +4.4 3.5 Oct-18 calls 25 k buy-to-open; delta 0.29 → 2.0 m hedge
NVDA 189.43 +0.4σ 0.23 9% -3 +1.1 190 straddle marks 3.1% breakev; 200 calls 1.9× puts
LAES 6.04 +3.1σ 0.34 24% -38 +8.3 6 strike 73% of OI; borrow 68% new high
IREN 64.11 +1.9σ 0.30 12% -27 +5.0 65 calls 1.4 k sweep; gamma-neutral 63.8
USAR 40.12 +4.5σ 0.35 28% -63 +12.7 40 calls 3.6 m vs 32 m float – 11% synthetically short
CRML 18.15 +4.2σ 0.32 26% -49 +10.5 17.5 puts bought 1.1 k; ref 18.00
RGTI 46.13 +1.8σ 0.29 14% -19 +4.8 45/50 call spread 2.5 k × 3.0 k; premium $3.7 m
MP 86.88 +2.6σ 0.28 15% -33 +7.4 85 puts 1.0 k; delta-flip 84.2
TSLA 425.25 +0.2σ 0.24 8% -5 +0.9 425 weekly straddle sold 6 k × $14.20; 2.7% breakev
VOLATILITY & TAIL SCORES (0 = calm, 10 = regime shift)
Ticker IV90/RV90 IVR %ile TailScore Comment
USAR 2.11 99 9.7 IV 165% vs RV 78%; 0.5% FTD threshold in sight
CRML 1.96 98 9.5 Float 38 m; 20 strike OI = 4.2 m shares
LAES 1.88 97 9.4 Borrow 68% with 95% util; locate fee 150 bps
BITF 1.62 95 9.0 IV 112% vs BTC RV 55%; ETF creation gamma 1.3 m shr
PLUG 1.55 93 8.8 Keltner 3.20 next; IV > RV 14th consecutive day
OPTIONS FLOW – UNUSUAL & SIZE
• BITF: 18 Oct 5 calls 32 k bought 0.45 vs 0.38 offer; delta 0.35 → 3.5 m share hedge.
• USAR: 18 Oct 45 calls 2.8 k sweep; OI 8.2 k; premium $4.1 m; open interest now 25% of float.
• LAES: 6 Oct 6 calls 1.9 k vs 6 puts 0.2 k; call/put ratio 9.5× (20-day avg 1.2×).
• NVDA: 25 Oct 200/210 call spread 4.0 k × 4.0 k; $5.8 m debit; delta 0.26 → 104 k shares.
• MP: 18 Oct 90 calls 1.5 k; delta 0.37 → 56 k hedge; rare-earth quota catalyst.
DARK-POOL & SHORT-COVER TRIGGERS
Ticker Short % Float Cost Util Dark 10-day Δ Trigger Price Comment
USAR 41% 92% 97% +14 ppt 41.50 Move → 42 activates 1.3 m share buy
LAES 36% 68% 95% +9 ppt 6.20 6.5 calls 0.9 m vs 0.7 m float → gamma squeeze
BITF 29% 45% 93% +6 ppt 5.00 Stock 4.79; 5 strike 3.8 m OI = 20% float
CRML 27% 52% 89% +7 ppt 19.00 18.15 +21% pre-mkt; borrow recall risk
PLUG 26% 35% 88% +4 ppt 3.75 3.5 calls delta-hedge flip at 3.70
CRYPTO-EXPOSURE MONITOR
