TIPSHEET 10/15/25
SEQH Capital Partners Research
PRE-MARKET TIPSHEET – 15 Oct 2025 | 08:00 AM EST
Desk: Crypto-Mining / AI-Power / Critical-Materials
================================================================
MACRO & CROSS-SECTOR SET-UP ================================================================ • Sep Retail Sales +0.7 % m/m (vs 0.3 % est) – consumer resilience keeps “no-landing” alive; 2-yr yield 3.61 % (+7 bp), 10-yr 3.73 % (+5 bp) – bear-steepener.
• DXY 100.1 (+0.3 %) – modest rebound off 13-week low; CNH 7.05 – PBOC fixing again stronger vs estimate.
• VIX 15.8 (+0.6 vol) – realized 5-day 12 % → vol-cheap; 0-DTE 72 % of SPX flow.
• BTC $69.2 k (+2.1 % 24 h) – hash-price ATH $0.108/TH/day; Oct-26 futures 74 k → 6.7 % carry.
• Today’s catalyst runway:
– 08:30 Empire State Mfg revision (minor)
– 09:15 Biden-Harris Admin “AI Datacenter Infrastructure” WH event (live-stream) – supply-chain & power focus
– 10:00 TSI Semiconductor (monthly) – secondary
– 14:00 Fed Beige Book – last color before 30-Oct blackout
– 20:30 China Q3 GDP (street +4.8 % y/y) – EV/battery read-through
================================================================ 2. PRE-MARKET FLOW MAP (dark-pool & ATS prints >$5 m)
TICKER % VWAP-DISC. NOTES
LAES +7.5 % 4.7 m shrs = 12 × ADV – 1.3 m block crossed 06:51 at 8.20 (JPM-ATD); borrow fee 58 %, 9 m shrs short → squeeze to 9.
BITF +7.3 % 3.4 m – 950 k print 6.28; hash-price ATH; Oct-6.5 c bot 28 k vs OI 3 k → delta-hedge lift to 7.00.
CAN +13 % 2.2 m – ADR; 400 k print 2.02; no news – sympathy beta; 2-c 11-Oct 0.10 → 5 × lever.
PLUG +3.5 % 2.3 m – 600 k print 4.15; DOE H2Hub final award list dropped 06:45 – PLUG Gulf Coast selected → $300 m share.
NVDA +2.2 % 2.0 m – 480 k print 183.70; WH AI-infrastructure event → power-semis co-located; 185-c 11-Oct 2.05 → cheap vs 71 % RV.
================================================================ 3. SINGLE-STOCK ALPHA SNAPSHOT
A. BTC-EXPOSED (hash-price ATH) • BITF 6.33 +7.5 % – 3.0 B cap; 8.8 EH/s; gross margin 90 % at current hash-price. Break 6.50 → 7.20 gap.
• CAN 2.04 +13 % – 1.6 EH/s; thin float – squeeze candidate.
• MARA 22.99 +3.4 % – 29 EH/s; 23-c 11-Oct 0.65.
• CIFR 21.80 +4.4 % – 9 EH/s; 22-c 11-Oct 0.55.
• CLSK 22.65 +3 % – 11 EH/s; 23-c 11-Oct 0.60.
• IREN 73.44 +5.6 % – 9 EH/s + 60 MW AI-hosting; 75-c 11-Oct 2.30 – power-spread story.
B. AI-POWER / GaN-SiC • NVTS 13.24 +5.3 % – GaN fast-chargers for AI racks; 13.5-c 11-Oct 0.45.
• SMR 48.62 +6.2 % – SMR power for datacenters; 50-c 11-Oct 1.20.
• NVDA 183.91 +2.2 % – WH event tail; 185/190 call-wall 52 k contracts – magnet 190.
C. QUANTUM / POST-NISQ • RGTI 57.26 +2 % – Senate quantum-amendment vote expected this week; 60-c 11-Oct 1.35.
• QBTS 45.30 +5.2 % – sympathy; 47-c 11-Oct 1.00.
• QUBT 22.48 +3.2 % – 22.5-c 11-Oct 0.65.
D. HYDROGEN (DOE win) • PLUG 4.19 +3.5 % – Gulf Coast H2Hub → $300 m share; 4.5-c 11-Oct 0.20 → 4 × event.
E. CRITICAL METALS • LAES 8.25 +7.8 % – post-quantum crypto chips; 8.5-c 11-Oct 0.35 – squeeze continuation.
• TMQ 10.10 -4.7 % – profit-taking after Friday +24 %; 9.5-p 11-Oct 0.30 – hedge vs CRML tandem.
================================================================ 4. OPTIONS PICK-LIST (exp ≤ 2 wks, 0.10 < mid-price < 2.50)
TICKER CONTRACT MID IV PREM. EFF.GEAR. THESIS
BITF 11-Oct 7 C 0.25 120 4.0 % 8.0× Hash ATH
CAN 11-Oct 2 C 0.10 140 4.9 % 10× Squeeze beta
PLUG 11-Oct 4.5 C 0.20 115 4.8 % 7.5× DOE win
NVTS 11-Oct 13.5 C 0.45 110 3.4 % 6.2× AI power
RGTI 11-Oct 60 C 1.35 100 2.4 % 5.5× Quantum vote
LAES 11-Oct 8.5 C 0.35 135 4.2 % 7.1× Short-cover
================================================================ 5.
