TIPSHEET 10/15/25
SEQH Capital Partners Research
PRE-MARKET TIPSHEET – 16 Oct 2025 | 08:00 AM EST
Desk: Research
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MACRO & CROSS-SECTOR SET-UP ================================================================ • Sep Industrial Production +0.5 % m/m (vs 0.2 % est) – manufacturing rebound; 2-yr 3.68 % (+7 bp), 10-yr 3.81 % (+8 bp) – bear-steepener continues.
• PPI Final Demand 0.3 % m/m (inline); core 0.2 % – no inflation scare.
• DXY 100.4 (+0.4 %) – 2-day short-cover; CNH 7.06 – NIO-weight.
• VIX 16.2 (+0.4 vol) – realized 5-day 13 % → still vol-cheap; 0-DTE 74 % SPX flow.
• BTC $68.9 k (-0.4 % 24 h) – hash-price steady $0.106/TH/day; Oct-26 futures 74.3 k.
• Today’s catalyst runway:
– 08:30 Housing Starts / Building Permits (Sep) – secondary
– 09:30 Philly Fed (Oct) – street +4.0, whisper +7.0 (aircraft)
– 10:00 Fed Chair Powell interview (WSJ) – last words before blackout
– 10:30 EIA NG – power-demand AI narrative
– 20:30 China Sep Retail Sales (EV read-through)
================================================================ 2. PRE-MARKET FLOW MAP (dark-pool & ATS prints >$5 m)
TICKER % VWAP-DISC. NOTES
NIO -7 % 4.7 m shrs = 6.6 × ADV – 1.5 m block crossed 06:52 at 6.32 (UBSD); Q3 delivery miss (61.2 k vs 65 k guide) – profit-taking.
CRML +9 % 937 k vs 30-d ADV 320 k – 300 k print 24.60; Ambler-road BLM ROD signed after-hours (15 Oct) – headline just hit tape.
ACHR +4 % 755 k – 250 k print 13.50; FAA G-1 issue paper rumored “today” – quiet-period memo Monday night.
BITF -4.5 % 1.6 m – 500 k print 6.15; equity-deal overhang ($300 m shelf declared effective 15 Oct) – discount model 6.00.
TSM +1.7 % 622 k – 180 k print 309.80; Q3 beat (rev $23.5 B vs $22.8 B) – AI wafer outlook raised 25 %.
================================================================ 3. SINGLE-STOCK ALPHA SNAPSHOT
