TIPSHEET 10/17/25
SEQH Capital Partners Research
PRE-MARKET TIPSHEET – 17 Oct 2025 | 08:00 AM EST
Desk: Research
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MACRO & CROSS-SECTOR SET-UP ================================================================ • Sep Retail Sales control group +0.6 % m/m (rev-up) – consumer resilience intact; 2-yr 3.74 % (+3 bp), 10-yr 3.83 % (+2 bp) – bear-steepener pausing.
• DXY 100.7 (+0.3 %) – 3-day short-cover; USDCNH 7.08 – China data tonight.
• VIX 17.1 (+0.9 vol) – 3-week high; call-skew richens as index dips below 5 800.
• Today’s catalyst runway:
– 08:30 Initial Claims (street 220 k) – whisper 210 k (risk-positive)
– 08:30 Philly Fed (Oct) – street +4.0, whisper +6.0
– 10:00 Leading Index (Sep) – secondary
– 10:30 EIA NG – power-demand AI narrative
– 21:30 China Q3 GDP (street +4.8 % y/y) – EV/battery read-through
================================================================ 2. PRE-MARKET FLOW MAP (dark-pool & ATS prints >$5 m)
TICKER % VWAP-DISC. NOTES
BITF -9.3 % 9.0 m shrs = 8.9 × ADV – 2.8 m block crossed 06:52 at 4.82 (Citi-ATD); $300 m overnight block priced $4.75 – 63 m shrs filed – book clean → stock open 4.79 = deal-close.
RGTI -7.2 % 6.1 m vs 30-d ADV 1.1 m – 1.8 m print 44.20; Senate quantum-amendment vote tabled last night – profit-taking; 42-p 11-Oct 0.65 vs 45-c 0.90 – straddle 4.1 % vs 8 % 5-day RV → cheap crash.
HIVE -17.6 % 2.1 m – Québec power-rate hike confirmed (+18 % Jan-26) – 25 MW Quebec facility 25 % of fleet → 5 % EBITDA hit.
WULF -9.5 % 2.3 m – sympathy power-cost scare; 12-p 11-Oct 0.20.
CLSK -8.5 % 1.4 m – 550 k print 18.40; no company news – sympathy + profit-taking; 18-p 11-Oct 0.35.
CIFR -9.2 % 1.2 m – 400 k print 17.00; follow-through from BITF supply – 17-p 11-Oct 0.25.
================================================================ 3. SINGLE-STOCK ALPHA SNAPSHOT
A. CRYPTO-MINING (deal & power-cost flush) • BITF 4.79 -9.3 % – deal done – 63 m shrs at $4.75; overhang removed → bounce candidate. Resistance 5.20; support 4.50.
• HIVE 4.81 -17.6 % – Québec power hike – avoid until guidance update.
• WULF 12.54 -9.5 % – 200 MW nuclear-powered site immune – buy dip; 13-c 11-Oct 0.25.
• CLSK 18.29 -8.5 % – 12.5 EH/s; 19-c 11-Oct 0.40 – bounce play.
• CIFR 16.99 -9.2 % – 10 EH/s; 17.5-c 11-Oct 0.30.
• IREN 57.88 -6.4 % – 60 MW AI-switch now live – power spread widens; 60-c 11-Oct 1.20.
• MARA 19.35 -4.5 % – 31 EH/s; 20-c 11-Oct 0.40.
B. QUANTUM (Senate setback) • RGTI 44.54 -7.2 % – NDAA quantum amendment tabled – next window lame-duck Dec; 42-p 0.65 – hedge or long straddle.
• QBTS 38.88 -3.9 % – sympathy; 40-c 11-Oct 0.70.
• IONQ 64.75 -1.3 % – 65-c 11-Oct 1.00.
C. CHINA EV (China-data risk) • NIO 6.48 -5.1 % – Q3 margin miss guide; waiting for China retail sales tonight; 6.5-c 11-Oct 0.10 – lottery.
• TSLA 420.80 -1.9 % – Robotaxi hangover; 425-c 11-Oct 2.30 – cheap vs 70 % RV.
D. eVTOL / AAM • JOBY 15.80 -1.7 % – quiet; FAA G-1 still “this week”; 16-c 11-Oct 0.25.
• ACHR 13.55 +4 % – sympathy JOBY – no news – technical bounce; 14-c 11-Oct 0.35.
E. CRITICAL METALS • CRML 24.81 +9 % – Ambler-road ROD momentum; 26-c 11-Oct 1.00 – extension to 28.
• LAC 7.16 -3.1 % – Thacker Pass ROD still pending – profit-taking; 7.5-c 11-Oct 0.15.
================================================================ 4. OPTIONS PICK-LIST (exp ≤ 2 wks, 0.05 < mid-price < 2.50)
TICKER CONTRACT MID IV PREM. EFF.GEAR. THESIS
BITF 11-Oct 5 C 0.25 118 5.2 % 8.3× Deal-clear
HIVE 11-Oct 5 P 0.25 150 5.2 % 5.8× Power hike
WULF 11-Oct 13 C 0.25 120 2.0 % 8.4× Nuclear dip
RGTI 11-Oct 45 Str 1.55 100 3.5 % 5.8× Binary vote
CLSK 11-Oct 19 C 0.40 105 2.2 % 7.3× Sympathy bounce
CRML 11-Oct 26 C 1.00 135 4.0 % 5.8× Road momentum
================================================================ 5. TECHNICAL LEVELS (15-min anchored VWAP)
TICKER KEY SUP KEY RES OPEN-GAP FIB-EXT NOTES
BITF 4.50 5.20 -0.49 5.80 Deal-clear = 5.30
HIVE 4.60 5.20 -1.03 4.00 Avoid < 4.60
WULF 12.0 13.5 -1.32 14.8 Nuclear immune – bounce
RGTI 42.0 47.0 -3.43 38.0 Vote fail = 38 / pass = 50
CLSK 17.5 19.0 -1.70 20.5 Break 19 → 20.5
CRML 23.0 26.0 +2.09 28.0 Extension 28 – gamma
================================================================ 6. EARNINGS / CORPORATE CALENDAR
TIME EVENT RELEVANT TICKER MARKET-CAP EST./WHISPER TRADE SET-UP
17-Oct BMO SLDP 1.1 B -0.08 EPS Solid-state battery update – vol cheap
17-Oct AMC MSFT 3.2 T +3.11 EPS Cloud AI – entire sector watch
17-Oct AMC TSLA 1.4 T +0.92 EPS Robotaxi follow-up – ACHR sympathy vol
18-Oct BMO HON – – – Industrial power cue – SMR read
================================================================ 7. CAPITAL-RAISE / INSIDER DRIP WATCH
• BITF – deal closed – 63 m shrs – no further supply until Q1-26.
• HIVE – Québec power hike → possible equity raise to fund relocation – keep 5 p 0.25.
• RGTI – 14 % insider unlock 18 Oct – supply after quantum vote.
================================================================ 8. ESG / REGULATORY SPEED-READ
• Québec energy board – 18 % rate hike for industrial users Jan-26 → HIVE, BITF Quebec sites affected.
• Senate NDAA – quantum amendment vote postponed to lame-duck – next window Dec.
• FAA G-1 – ACHR & JOBY still “this week” – watch 8-K drop.
================================================================ 9. QUANT SIGNALS (SEQH proprietary)
TICKER SHORT-INT LOAN-F 50-d REV DEALFA QUANT-TRIG.
BITF 21 % 28 % -2.0 s.d. -1.6 DEAL-CLEAR BOUNCE 5.00
HIVE 20 % 45 % -3.5 s.d. -2.8 AVOID
RGTI 14 % 15 % -2.2 s.d. -1.8 STRADDLE CHEAP 4.1 %
WULF 15 % 18 % -1.4 s.d. -1.2 BOUNCE 13.00
CLSK 18 % 20 % -1.8 s.d. -1.5 BOUNCE 18.50
================================================================ 10. RISK SCENARIOS & HEDGES
A. BTC breaks $65 k → miners -12 % – long BITF 4.5 p 0.10, HIVE 4 p 0.15.
B. FAA G-1 delay → ACHR gap 12 – own 13/12 put-spread 0.25.
C. MSFT cloud miss → AI semi -5 % – short NVDA 175 p 1.40, long SMH 220 p.
D. China GDP < 4.5 % → NIO prints 6 – own 6.5/6 put-spread 0.15.
================================================================ 11. TOP 3 TRADE TICKETS (07:00 AM ENTRY)
BITF – Buy 4.79 / sell 5 c 0.25 (net 4.54) – zero-cost 10 % upside into earnings next week.
WULF – Buy 12.54, add 12.00, stop 11.50, tgt 14.50 – r:r 2.8× – nuclear-power immune.
RGTI – Long 45 straddle 1.55 – hold to Senate vote or 48/52 break – breakeven 4 % move.
================================================================ 12. POST-PHILLY-FED GAME-PLAN MATRIX (10:00 AM)
PHILLY < 0 0 to +6 > +6
USD -0.3 % +0.1 % +0.4 %
10-yr -2 to -4 bp +0 to +2 bp +3 to +5 bp
WINNERS RGTI, ACHR BITF, WULF, CLSK NIO, CAN
LOSERS Miners — Quantum
HEDGE None needed Sell DXY 100.7 c Short QQQ 395 p
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