TIPSHEET 10/24/25
SEQH Capital Partners Research
PRE-MARKET TIPSHEET – 24 Oct 2025 | 08:00 AM EST
Desk: Research
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MACRO & CROSS-SECTOR SET-UP ================================================================ • US 10-yr 3.69 % (-4 bp); 2-yr 3.60 % (-3 bp) – bull-steepener.
• DXY 99.2 (-0.3 %); USDCNH 7.01 – PBOC 10 bp LPR tailwind.
• VIX 14.6 (-0.3 vol); 0-DTE 68 %.
• BTC $68.1 k (+1.4 %); hash-price ATH $0.108/TH/day; ETF +$124 m.
• Catalysts: 08:30 Durable Goods; 10:00 Mich Sentiment; 14:00 Powell (final pre-blackout).
================================================================ 2. PRE-MARKET FLOW MAP (>$3 m dark prints)
INTC +7.5 % 3.0 M 18A Panther Lake launch – IPC +15 %, power –20 % → FY26 EPS +12 %.
BITF +9.2 % 1.8 M Hash-price ATH; 4.80 target.
CAN +9.1 % 913 k Borrow 40 %, 1.7 M shrs short – gamma squeeze to 2.00.
IREN +6 % 611 k AI-power spread widens.
RGTI +3.3 % 1.1 M Intel quantum-chip supplier angle.
================================================================ 3. SINGLE-STOCK ALPHA SNAPSHOT A. SEMIS • INTC 41.04 +7.5 % 24-Oct 42 c $0.85 vs 38 p $0.30 – straddle 4 % vs 65 % RV – cheap into earnings tonight.
• NVDA 183.18 +0.6 % 24-Oct 185 c $1.20.
• AMD 240.74 +0.1 % 24-Oct 242 c $1.60.
• STM 26.62 –8.6 % 24-Oct 25 p $0.40 – hedge vs INTC.
B. CRYPTO-MINING • BITF 4.55 +9.2 % 24-Oct 5 c $0.20 – break 4.80 → 5.20.
• CAN 1.92 +9.1 % 24-Oct 2 c $0.05 – gamma to 2.10.
• IREN 59.20 +6 % 24-Oct 60 c $1.20 – power spread.
• CIFR 18.30 +6.1 % 24-Oct 19 c $0.35.
C. QUANTUM • RGTI 40.88 +3.3 % 24-Oct 42 c $0.70 – Intel angle + Senate file this week.
• QBTS 32.90 +5.9 % 24-Oct 34 c $0.60.
• IONQ 61.57 +3.7 % 24-Oct 65 c $1.00.
• QUBT 16.43 +3.1 % 24-Oct 17 c $0.25.
• LAES 5.95 +4 % 24-Oct 6 c $0.15.
D. AI-POWER • SMR 38.86 +3.5 % 24-Oct 40 c $0.50 – buy dip.
E. HYDROGEN • PLUG 3.01 +3.1 % 24-Oct 3 c $0.05 – Q4 DOE cash-draw.
F. CHINA EV • NIO 6.89 +0.7 % 24-Oct 7 c $0.10 – lottery into retail sales tonight.
================================================================ 4. OPTIONS PICK-LIST (24 Oct expiry ≤ 2 wks) TICKER STRIKE CONTRACT MID IV EFF-GEAR THESIS INTC 42 24-Oct 42 C 0.85 75 6.2× 18A launch BITF 5 24-Oct 5 C 0.20 115 8.0× Hash ATH CAN 2 24-Oct 2 C 0.05 140 9.5× Float squeeze RGTI 42 24-Oct 42 C 0.70 95 5.8× Intel angle IREN 60 24-Oct 60 C 1.20 90 5.5× Power spread PLUG 3 24-Oct 3 C 0.05 105 7.2× H2 cash draw
================================================================ 5. TECHNICAL LEVELS (15-min VWAP) INTC 39.0 42.0 +2.88 43.5 BITF 4.20 4.80 +0.39 5.20 CAN 1.80 2.00 +0.16 2.10 RGTI 38.0 42.0 +1.28 44.0 IREN 56.0 62.0 +3.34 65.0 PLUG 2.90 3.20 +0.13 3.40
================================================================ 6. EARNINGS / CORPORATE CALENDAR 24-Oct BMO INTC +0.42 EPS 24-Oct 42 straddle 4 % – cheap 24-Oct AMC MSFT +3.11 EPS Azure cue – AI semi beta 24-Oct AMC TSLA +0.92 EPS Robotaxi follow-up
================================================================ 7. CAPITAL-RAISE / INSIDER DRIP INTC – 12 % insider unlock 25 Oct post-earnings. RGTI – 14 % unlock 25 Oct post-quantum-vote. BITF – no supply until Q2-26.
================================================================ 8. RISK SCENARIOS A. INTC EPS < $0.35 → 40/38 put-spread $0.30. B. China retail < +3 % → NIO 7 p / LAC 6.5 p. C. BTC < $65 k → BITF 4 p / CAN 1.5 p. D. Quantum vote delay → RGTI 42/38 put-spread $0.70.
================================================================ 9. TOP 3 TICKETS
INTC – Buy 41.04 / sell 42 c $0.85 (net 40.19) – zero-cost 4.5 % upside into earnings.
BITF – Buy 4.55, add 4.30, stop 4.10, tgt 5.00 – r:r 3.2×.
CAN – Buy 1.92 / sell 2 c $0.05 (net 1.87) – zero-cost 7 % upside – squeeze.
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