TIPSHEET 10/8/25
SEQH Capital Partners Research
PRE-MARKET TIPSHEET – 08 Oct 2025 | 08:00 AM EST
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MACRO & CROSS-SECTOR SET-UP ================================================================ • Fed-dated OIS now pricing 42 bp cut by Dec-25 (was 38 bp yest.) – front-end bid keeps long-duration tech/growth names supported.
• 10-yr T-note 3.71 % (-3 bp) – Goldilocks tone post-FOMC minutes; real yields -5 bp helps quantum/AI plays.
• DXY 100.9 – soft-Dollar backdrop typically boosts BTC-proxy equities (BITF, IREN, BTQ).
• VVIX 87 (floor) – vol-of-vol compressed; tail-hedge cheap for high-beta eVTOL & quantum baskets.
• Today’s catalyst cluster:
– 08:15 ADP (street +140 k)
– 08:30 Sep CPI (core m/m 0.24 % est.) – whisper 0.21 % (bullish for rate-sensitive)
– 10:30 EIA oil – watch for jet-fuel draw (eVTOL sympathy)
– 11:00 $42 bn 10-yr reopening – tail >1 bp could spook long-duration tech.
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2. PRE-MARKET FLOW MAP (dark-pool & ATS prints >$5 m)
TICKER % VWAP-DISC. NOTES
JOBY -10.9 % 3.2 m shrs already >2× ADV before 7 am – 4 separate 400 k+ blocks crossed at 16.70 on SIGMA; seller appears captive (lock-up) – 17.00/17.50 puts 8-Oct open-interest +120 % overnight → possible gamma-unwind.
BTQ +11.4 % 1.7 m vs 30-d ADV 180 k – 3 prints 250 k at 15.60 on CROS; no borrow in SLB (fee 38 %), 0.9 m shrs short-inventory → squeeze candidate into Canadian quantum subsidy headline (expected 10 am).
BITF +4.3 % 1.4 m – 600 k print 3.58 vs VWAP 3.54 – BTC $63.9 k +1.8 % 24 h; Oct-25 4-c calls bot 5 k across ISE → delta-hedge flow supportive.
RKLB +6.4 % 751 k – Neutron static-fire rumour on Twitter 06:55; no refutation yet; 65-c 11-Oct calls volume 8.3 k vs OI 1.1 k → 7× over-writer.
================================================================ 3. SINGLE-STOCK ALPHA SNAPSHOT
A. eVTOL – SECTOR READ-ACROSS
• JOBY 16.91 -10.6 % β vs QQQ 2.1 RSI 22 (daily) → oversold; IV 95 % (85th %-tile) – 30-Oct 17 puts pay 2.05 – cheap crash protection. Catalyst path: FAA G-1 issue paper due “mid-Oct” – if headline slips to Nov, stock trades to 14.50 (next gamma-shelf).
• ACHR 11.93 -4.4 % – sympathy supply; 200-day at 11.20 – buy-write attractive (Nov 12 c 1.35 vs 11 % ann.).
Trade idea: Pair-long ACHR vs short JOBY (β-adj) into FAA calendar; target 8 % spread.
B. QUANTUM / POST-NISQ THEME
• RGTI 43.28 -1.4 % – 3-d consecutive inside-day; VWAP anchored at 41.80 – algo support. Government SBIR Phase-II grant hit tape 18:04 yest. – not yet reflected in 8-K → 45-c 11-Oct 2.30 offers 4.3 × leverage.
• QBTS 35.19 -1.5 % – 840 k volume pre-mkt = 65 % of ADV already; 33-p 11-Oct added 2.4 k contracts – skew richened to -17 vol pts – strangle 33/37 1.95 looks cheap vs 68 % 5-day RV.
• BTQ 15.44 +12 % – see flow above; thin float (98 m shrs) – 30 % insider lock-up expires 15 Oct → risk/reward 2-way; use 15.00 1×2 call-spread to finance downside hedge.
C. BTC-PROXY / HPC POWER
• BITF 3.63 +4.6 % – hash-rate guidance update pre-mkt (expected); breakeven $0.058 kWh vs spot $0.051 – levered to BTC >$64 k. Watch for equity raise rumour (shelf filed 20 Sep).
• IREN 59.37 -3.8 % – 887 k volume; mined 433 BTC Sep (flat m/m) – market wanted 450; guidance maintained. 55-p 11-Oct 1.15 – buy on any CPI-spike dip.
D. SPACE / DEFENSE
• RKLB 65.58 +6.6 % – see above; Neutron success = 8-10 % move vs failure -18 % (hist.). Risk-reversal 70c/60p 1×1 for even money attractive.
• PLUG 3.90 +0.8 % – DOE hydrogen hub announcement Thursday after-bell – keep on radar; 4-c 11-Oct calls bot 15 k yesterday – unusual.
E. LARGE-CAP SEMIS
• NVDA 186.18 +0.6 % – 188.7 m shrs ADV – options expiry gamma-pin 185-190; post-CPI vol crush 8 Oct 52/48 straddle 5.6 % → sell if realized <6 %.
• AMD 213.82 +1.1 % – outperforms NVDA 4-d in row; MI325X sampling headline yest. – server OEMs positive; 220-c 18-Oct 3.10 vs 1.8 % delta cheap.
• INTC 37.16 flat – 18A Panther Lake client tape-out rumour tonight; 38-c 11-Oct 0.48 – lottery ticket.
================================================================ 4. OPTIONS PICK-LIST (exp ≤ 2 wks, 0.25 < mid-price < 2.00)
TICKER CONTRACT MID IV PREM. EFF.GEAR. THESIS
JOBY 08-Nov 15 P 1.05 94 4.9× 9.3× FAA delay scare
BTQ 11-Oct 16 C 0.90 135 5.8× 7.7× Squeeze extension
BITF 11-Oct 4 C 0.20 108 5.5× 6.1× BTC lever
RGTI 11-Oct 45 C 2.30 102 5.3× 4.8× Grant kicker
RKLB 11-Oct 70 C 0.85 95 1.3× 11× Binary test
QBTS 11-Oct 37 C 0.55 98 1.6× 8.9× Skew cheap
================================================================ 5. TECHNICAL LEVELS (15-min anchored VWAP)
TICKER KEY SUP KEY RES OPEN-GAP FIB-EXT NOTES
JOBY 16.40 17.85 -2.00 14.50 Air-pocket to 15.20 if 16.40 fails
BTQ 14.80 16.20 +1.65 17.90 Parabolic – 5-minute 8-EMA 14.95
BITF 3.48 3.78 +0.16 3.92 200-day 3.78 – breaker = 4.05
RGTI 41.80 45.00 -0.63 48.50 Volume shelf 42.30 – intraday support
RKLB 62.90 68.00 +4.07 72.30 Gap-fill 63.10 if rumour denied
QBTS 34.00 37.40 -0.53 39.80 Cloud twist 35.70 – bullish if sustained
NVDA 184.20 189.50 +1.14 192.80 Gamma-wall 190 – pin attractive
AMD 210.50 217.00 +2.31 222.40 Breakout = 218 – measured 230
================================================================ 6. EARNINGS / CORPORATE CALENDAR
TIME EVENT RELEVANT TICKER MARKET-CAP EST./WHISPER TRADE SET-UP
12-Oct AMC PLUG 3.6 B -0.18 EPS Straddle 9 % – cheap vs 12 % 8-qtr avg
14-Oct BMO OPEN 6.6 B +0.04 EPS IBD sales +29 % y/y – guidance risk
15-Oct AMC SOFI 31.3 B +0.12 EPS Student-loan headlines into print – 29 IV
16-Oct BMO TSM ADR sympathy – NVDA/AMD beta 1.3 – watch for capex cue
================================================================ 7. CAPITAL-RAISE / INSIDER DRIP WATCH
• JOBY – 180 m shrs lock-up expires 14 Oct (2-d post-FAA) – Street est. 25 % flow-back.
• BTQ – 98 m float; 30 % insider unlock 15 Oct – keep short-dated calls covered.
• BITF – $300 m shelf effective – model 8 % discount on any deal.
• RKLB – 3.5 % holder Khosla filed 144 02 Oct – 1.2 m shrs possible dribble.
================================================================ 8. ESG / REGULATORY SPEED-READ
• FAA Reauthorization mark-up (House T&I) rescheduled 09 Oct – eVTOL weight-class language friendly → tail-risk for JOBY/ACHR if removed.
• US Treasury quantum-tax credit draft (45Q) circulating – BTQ, QBTS, RGTI eligible; 10 % uplift to NPV if passed.
• EU Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) adopted 07 Oct – no near-term impact to BITF/IREN.
================================================================ 9. QUANT SIGNALS (SEQH proprietary)
