TIPSHEET 10/9/25
SEQH Capital Partners Research
PRE-MARKET TIPSHEET – 09 Oct 2025 | 07:00 AM EST
Desk: TMT / Clean-Tech / Crypto
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MACRO & CROSS-SECTOR SET-UP ================================================================ • Sep CPI 0.17 % m/m core (vs 0.24 % est) – dovish shock; 2-yr -11 bp, 10-yr -9 bp, DXY 100.2 (new 3-mo low).
• Fed-dated OIS now 52 bp cut by Dec-25 (+10 bp vs 24 h ago) – long-duration growth basket in vogue.
• VIX 15.4 (-1.3 vol), VVIX 82 – vol-of-vol collapses; call-skew cheap in high-beta tech.
• BTC $64.9 k (+1.5 % 24 h) – holding post-CPI gains; ETF inflow $174 m yest. (3rd highest).
• Today’s catalyst runway:
– 08:30 Initial Claims (street 218 k) – whisper 210 k (risk-positive)
– 10:00 Wholesale Inventories (Aug) – secondary
– 10:30 EIA NG – watch for power-demand bid (AI/datacenter narrative)
– 11:00 30-yr bond reopening – $25 bn; tail >1.5 bp could spoil rates rally.
– 13:00 Fedspeak triple-header: Powell (NY), Williams, Kugler – tone expected balanced.
================================================================ 2. PRE-MARKET FLOW MAP (dark-pool & ATS prints >$5 m)
TICKER % VWAP-DISC. NOTES
PLUG -8.1 % 3.7 m shrs = 3.2 × ADV – 1.2 m block crossed 06:51 at 3.35 (UBSD); no borrow left (fee 41 %), 32 m shrs short → potential cover-rally into DOE hydrogen hub (decision today).
SERV +16.5 % 743 k vs 30-d ADV 89 k – 4 prints 125 k at 15.90; no 144 filed yet → squeeze candidate.
PATH +6.6 % 633 k – 270 k print 16.45 vs VWAP 16.20; Elliott rumor twitter 06:45 – unconfirmed; Oct-25 17.5 c bot 8 k vs OI 1.1 k.
BITF +2.8 % 2.9 m – 900 k print 4.08; BTC correlation 0.87; Oct-25 4.5 c added 12 k – delta-hedge lift.
NVDA +1.1 % 1.9 m – 450 k print 191.10; 190-c 11-Oct 1.95 now 2.85 – short gamma squeeze into 200 magnet.
================================================================ 3. SINGLE-STOCK ALPHA SNAPSHOT
