TMC Earnings and Outlook

Nov 15, 2025

∙ Paid

The Metals Company (TMC) – Q3 2025 Tear Sheet

Market View: Maintains Bullish Portfolio Position

Net loss: $184.5 million ($0.46/share), mainly driven by non-cash royalty, warrant, and equity-related charges.
Operating loss: $55.4 million; operating cash burn held to $11.5 million, evidencing disciplinedcapital allocation.
General & administrative expenses: surged to $45.7 million (from $8.1M YoY) due largely to one-time equity compensation.
Exploration/Evaluation expense: $9.6 million, down YoY, reflecting strategic pivot to permitting, not fieldwork.
Cash position at Q3-end: $115.6 million; post-warrant exercises expand total liquidity to ~$165 million. Sufficient runway through 2026 without near-term dilution risk.
Shares outstanding (fully diluted): ~409 million, with additional potential proceeds of $400+ million from outstanding warrants.

Published NORI-D Pre-Feasibility Study: First declaration of deep-sea nodule mineralreserves (51Mt), with $5.5B NPV. Combined project NPV now $23.6B.
Achieved full regulatory compliance for US/NOAA deep-sea mining permit application; both US and Nauru/Tonga licenses in advanced regulatory review, accelerated by October rulesubmission to OMB.
Announced successful commercial-scale pilot production of battery-grade manganese sulfate via partnership with Japan’s PAMCO.
Major strategic investment: Korea Zinc injects $85M+ and board support, enabling a China-independent battery metals supply chain.
Allseas partnership: leverages Hidden Gem production vessel for capital-light collectionmodel, derisking execution and capex.
Cash and liquidity position robust; major expenses covered, minimizing risk of forced capital raise prior to key catalysts.
Remains on track for Q4 2027 production, contingent on final permit.

Unprecedented resource quality/scale: Polymetallic nodules provide battery-grade nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese with world-beating grades. CCZ resource control is unparalleled.
Valuation dislocation: Trades at ~0.09x NPV ($2.1B market cap vs. $23.6B project value); regulatory advancements and further partnerships forecast multiple expansion ahead.
First-mover regulatory advantage: TMC’s commercial permit filing and compliance status set years-long lead versus peers.
Capital-light development: Utilizes existing Allseas/PAMCO infrastructure, slashing upfrontcosts and execution risk vs. greenfield mine builds.
China supply chain bypass: Vertical integration with Korea Zinc and PAMCO creates a US/Japan/Korea battery metals corridor, isolating from Chinese processing choke points.
ESG/Environmental edge: Deep-sea nodule collection has a dramatically smaller eco-footprint and waste profile than terrestrial mining.

NOAA/DSHMRA permitting: Timeline remains non-binding; delays or regulatory headwinds could push Q4 2027 start.
Commercial-scale technology: Allseas must execute on ramp up from 4,500t pilot to 1.3Mt p.a. production target; operational risk remains.
Commodity price volatility: Battery metals pricing (esp. nickel/cobalt) could impact project economics; however, first-quartile cost position helps buffer downside shocks.
Share dilution: Ongoing warrant exercises and equity compensation expand share count, partially offsetting NAV/share upside.
Environmental activism/regulatory scrutiny: Heightening global focus may lead to tightercontrols/mitigation costs in future sessions.

Maintain overweight; identify sub-$5.00 entry points for additional tactical accumulation.
Anticipate next major catalyst in March 2026 (Q4 earnings); regulatory and operationalupdates will shape step-function re-rating sequence.
Risk remains above average, but asymmetric upside and strategic/operational momentumsupport continued holding.

FULL 5-PAGE EARNINGS REPORT AND SEQH POSITIONING UPDATE BELOW: