Ur-Energy Inc. (URG) Valuation
Ur-Energy Inc. (URG) – Multi-Method Valuation
Price: $1.84 | Date: 6 October 2025 | View: STRONG BUY
12-mo Target: $3.20 (base), Bull $4.15 (115% upside), Bear $2.10 (14% upside)
1. Levered & Royalty-Adjusted NPV of Mine Cash Flows (Core)
Lost Creek (Wyoming) ISR: 1.3 M lb U₃O₈ remaining at 0.58 g/t head grade; cash cost guide $14/lb post-2025 capex.
Shirley Basin construction decision Q1-26: 1.8 M lb @ $16/lb (incl. new wellfield + IX).
Corporate price deck: 2026 $75/lb, 2027 $82/lb, LT $70/lb (vs. spot $62/lb today).
Model 2.7 M lb sold 2026-30, then 0.8 M lb/yr to 2033; royalty 4.5% gross, severance 4%, severance tax credit 2%.
Real discount 8% → NPV₈ (after-tax) $418M; net cash $44M; fully-dil. shares 311M → $1.49/sh asset value.
Add 30% control premium for permitted, fully-licensed ISR plant in U.S. → $1.94/sh; current price $1.84 ⇒ 5% downside protection with torque to uranium price.
2. Option Value of 24 M lb Exploration Portfolio (Real-Option)
Pathfinder, Lost-Creek South, Cedar Ridge resources sum 24.3 M lb @ 200-600 ppm; only 10% moved to M&I so far.
Black-Scholes analogue: underlying = in-situ value $70/lb × 24.3M = $1.7B, strike (cost to permit + build) ≈ $35/lb × 24.3M = $0.85B, vol 40%, time 7 yr, risk-free 4%.
Option value ≈ $0.9B gross; URG 100% owner → $2.90/sh additional upside not booked on balance-sheet.
Even haircutting 60% for permitting risk still adds $1.15/sh → blended NAV $3.10/sh (68% upside).
3. EV/Resource & Peer Transaction Metrics
