Weekend Reading
2/8/26
SEQH Capital Research - Weekend Reading
Week of February 8, 2026
The Tape
Uranium spot cratered ~15% off last week’s highs. After briefly breaching $100/lb in late January, the first triple-digit print since early 2024, spot dove to $86.33/lb by Friday per Energy Intelligence’s price panel, a $14.48 weekly decline. Futures tracked lower, with UX1 settling around $85.70–$86/lb mid-week. Notably, SPUT bought 550,000 lbs U₃O₈ into the weakness and couldn’t arrest the slide. This looks like a classic blow-off top / mean reversion, not a structural breakdown. The year-long uptrend remains intact: spot is still +22.5% YoY and the 1-month return is +4.2% even after the pullback.
Equities felt the heat. URNM (Sprott Uranium Miners ETF) went from $76.29 on Tuesday’s open to a $65.72 close by Wednesday, a brutal 14% intraweek drawdown. NAV settled Friday at $67.30, still up ~25% YTD. URA (Global X Uranium ETF) posted a 1-month trailing return of +5.7% and 3-month of +15.9%, with Cameco (22.2%), Oklo (13.5%), and UEC (5.9%) as top weights.
Supply Side - Still Tight
The structural deficit narrative hasn’t changed. Kazatomprom confirmed a ~10% production cut for 2026, trimming output from 85M lbs to ~77M lbs U₃O₈ (100% basis), largely driven by the Budenovskoye JV adjustment. That’s roughly 8M lbs, about 5% of global supply, removed from the market. The new KATCO processing plant (2,000 tU/yr capacity, JV with Orano) is online, but won’t offset the volume gap. Higher Kazakh mineral extraction taxes add further cost-side pressure.
SPUT’s buying pace remains aggressive. The Trust purchased 8.67M lbs in 2025, nearly 3x the 3.06M lbs bought in 2024. Holdings now valued at $6.13B. They’re already active in 2026, signaling continued physical demand even at elevated prices.
Policy & Regulatory - NRC Overhaul Accelerating
This is the story the market isn’t fully pricing. The NRC launched a major internal reorganization last week, restructuring to meet EO 14300 deadlines. The timeline is aggressive:
March 27, 2026: Final rule on Part 53 (risk-informed licensing framework under NEIMA)
March 30, 2026: Proposed rule for microreactor/low-consequence reactor licensing
April 2026: Proposed rules on streamlined design reviews and modernized oversight
Sept–Nov 2026: Compressed cluster of final rules
The administration’s target is 400 GW of nuclear capacity by 2050. DOE has committed $2.7B over the next decade for domestic uranium enrichment, addressing the uncomfortable reality that ~40% of global uranium supply still flows from Russia and ~17% from China.
Tennessee’s Governor Lee announced new nuclear investment in his budget request for 2026, further signaling state-level tailwinds.
On the Ground - Juniors Drilling
Ur-Energy (URG): Updated Lost Soldier and North Hadsell exploration in Wyoming’s Great Divide Basin - management flagged “significant upside potential”.
American Uranium (ASX: AMU): Mobilized drill rig for Feb 9 restart at Lo Herma ISR project (Powder River Basin). Targeting interim resource update by late March, scoping study in Q3.
EnergySolutions: Moving forward on new nuclear at the Kewaunee County site in Wisconsin.
Next Week to Watch
Feb 9–11: Siemens Energy Nuclear Conference, St. Petersburg, FL - watch for utility commentary on procurement pipelines.
Feb 10–12: NAC International Spent Fuel Academy, Atlanta - signals on back-end fuel cycle developments.
Feb 12: ECA webinar on high-level waste and used nuclear fuel siting - relevant for new-build community engagement.
NRC rulemaking cadence: February is the 9-month deadline for EO 14300 proposed rulemakings. Expect initial notices any day.
Spot price action: After a 15% correction, all eyes on whether $85/lb holds as support. SPUT’s buying posture at these levels is the key variable.
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