Weekend Reading
2/22/26
SEQH Capital Research
Weekend Reading
February 22, 2026
The Week That Was
SCOTUS strikes down IEEPA tariffs. The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that President Trump exceeded his authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose reciprocal tariffs. Trump immediately pivoted, announcing a new 10% “global tariff” under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective in approximately three days and lasting 150 days.
S&P 500 reclaimed ~6,900 on the SCOTUS news Friday but remains range-bound with highs capped near 7,000 and a pattern of lower lows since the year began. Resistance continues to hold more weight than support—prudent risk management remains the posture.
Uranium spot closed the week at ~$89.40/lb, up ~4.9% over the past month and +38% year-over-year. Spot surged past $100/lb briefly in January before correcting; the market remains structurally tight.
What’s on Deck: Week of Feb 23–27
Monday (2/23): Light calendar. No major U.S. data releases.
Tuesday (2/24): U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, a key read on household spending appetite amid tariff uncertainty. President Trump delivers his 2026 State of the Union address at 9 PM EST, first SOTU of his second term, expected to touch on tariffs, Iran, and the 250th anniversary of the founding.
Wednesday (2/25): NVIDIA (NVDA) reports Q4 FY2026 earnings after the close. Street expects ~$65.6B in revenue (+65% YoY) and $1.52 EPS. Blackwell/Rubin pipeline reportedly stands at $350B through 2026, this is the bellwether event for AI capex sentiment and, by extension, power demand narratives.
Thursday (2/26): Japan CPI data overnight.
Friday (2/27): U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), the week’s marquee inflation print. Canada Q4 GDP and Germany CPI also drop. Secretary of State Rubio meets Israeli PM Netanyahu to discuss Iran.
Nuclear & Uranium: What Matters
Iran remains the top geopolitical wildcard. Trump set a 10–15 day deadline for Iran to negotiate on its nuclear program, warning of “bad things” otherwise. The Pentagon’s “full forces” are expected to be positioned for potential strikes by mid-March. A second round of military action would carry significant implications for global energy risk premiums and uranium sentiment.
Structural supply deficit persists. The uranium market is already in deficit just to fuel the current reactor fleet, before accounting for restarts, life extensions, and new builds. S&P Global projects Uranium Energy Corp’s production could surge from $56M (2025) to $548M by 2030, underscoring the ramp required.
SMR legislative momentum accelerating. Arizona introduced six bills to clear permitting paths for small modular reactors, including provisions allowing data centers to co-locate SMRs. Texas has emerged as a leading SMR test ground less than three years after forming its Advanced Nuclear Reactor Working Group. Romania approved a Final Investment Decision for its NuScale-based SMR project.
AI-to-nuclear demand link strengthens. Data center operators are now actively considering backing uranium mining projects directly, per NexGen Energy’s CEO. Spot uranium’s January spike was driven by institutional buyers physically accumulating the fuel in anticipation of AI-driven power demand.
IAEA base case: global nuclear capacity could double to 561–992 GW by 2050. U.S. executive orders target quadrupling domestic capacity to 400 GW from ~100 GW today.
Our Read
The SCOTUS ruling introduces a new chapter of tariff uncertainty, but the rapid pivot to Section 122 authority means effective tariff rates may be largely “unchanged in 2026” per Treasury Secretary Bessent. Watch the SOTU for any escalatory rhetoric on Iran or trade.
NVDA earnings Wednesday will set the tone for the AI capex cycle and, indirectly, the power demand thesis that underpins much of the nuclear bull case. A guidance beat could re-accelerate the narrative.
Uranium at ~$89/lb sits in a constructive range. The supply-demand imbalance is structural, not speculative, and every policy development, from SMR legislation to Iran tensions, tilts the medium-term outlook higher.