Weekend Reading
11/16/25
SEQH Capital Research
Weekend Reading - Week of November 11–15, 2025
Markets: Sell-Off on Rate Uncertainty
The major indices posted sharp losses Thursday before recovering Friday. The S&P 500 fell 1.7%, Nasdaq dropped 2.3%, and the Dow shed 798 points amid uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision. The CME FedWatch tool now shows approximately 50% odds of another 25-basis-point cut, well below the 96% probability priced in one month ago.
Sticky inflation is driving the repricing. September CPI came in at 3.0% year-over-year, the highest reading since January, while core inflation held at 3.1%. Fed officials have begun signaling caution. Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that inflation “tips the scales” in policy deliberations, and Fed Chair Powell emphasized that December’s decision “is not a foregone conclusion”.
The 43-day government shutdown, the longest on record, has created an unprecedented data void. The September employment report finally arrives Thursday, November 20, nearly seven weeks behind schedule. However, October data may be permanently lost, as the household survey needed to calculate unemployment was not conducted during the shutdown. Without this crucial labor market indicator, the Fed will operate largely blind through its December decision.
Nuclear: Historic Deals Transform the Sector
Government Commits $80 Billion to Westinghouse
The Trump administration announced an $80 billion strategic partnership with Westinghouse, Cameco, and Brookfield Asset Management to deploy AP1000 reactors across the United States. The deal includes potential U.S. government equity stakes and is paired with a broader $550 billion U.S.-Japan trade agreement committing Japan to invest up to $332 billion in American energy infrastructure.
TVA Locks in 6 GW of NuScale SMRs
Tennessee Valley Authority finalized an agreement with ENTRA1 Energy to develop up to 6 gigawatts of NuScale small modular reactors across TVA’s service territory, the largest SMR deployment in U.S. history. Under the arrangement, ENTRA1 finances and develops the plants, then sells power back to TVA through long-term agreements.
UK Selects Wylfa for First SMR
The UK government selected Wylfa in North Wales for Britain’s first small modular reactor station, backed by £2.5 billion in government funding. The project will use Rolls-Royce SMR technology and could eventually expand to 1.5 gigawatts of capacity supporting 3,000 jobs.
Uranium Markets Stable; Oklo Advances
Spot uranium remained at $77.20 per pound on November 14, while long-term contract prices hit $86.00, the highest in 17 years. Oklo announced a strategic partnership with newcleo and Blykalla involving up to $2 billion of newcleo-led investment in advanced fuel fabrication infrastructure in the U.S.. The collaboration aims to develop fuel fabrication facilities and potentially repurpose surplus plutonium to accelerate gigawatt-scale advanced reactor deployment.
NuScale shares fell 3.2% Friday following Q3 earnings and a $750 million equity offering, though the company affirmed its exclusive ENTRA1 partnership. Cameco reported solid Q3 results with uranium segment earnings before taxes of $172 million.
Healthcare: Pfizer Wins Bidding War; M&A Momentum Continues
Pfizer Closes $10 Billion Metsera Deal
Pfizer completed its acquisition of obesity biotech Metsera on November 13, paying $65.60 per share upfront plus up to $20.65 per share in contingent value rights tied to clinical and regulatory milestones. The deal, valued at approximately $10 billion, caps a two-week bidding war with Novo Nordisk and brings three promising GLP-1 and amylin analog candidates into Pfizer’s pipeline. MET-097i, a weekly and monthly injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist, is about to begin Phase 3 development and could hit market by 2028. Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla highlighted the company’s manufacturing scale and clinical trial expertise as advantages over rivals.
FDA Approves Menin Inhibitor for AML
The FDA approved Kura Oncology’s ziftomenib (Komzifti) on November 13 for relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia with NPM1 mutations. The approval marks the second menin inhibitor cleared for this indication and follows October’s approval of Syndax’s Revuforj. Komzifti notably lacks a safety warning for abnormal heart rhythm that encumbers Revuforj, providing a potential competitive advantage.
Another Bidding War Emerges
Following Pfizer’s victory with Metsera, Lundbeck made an unsolicited $23-per-share offer for Avadel Pharmaceuticals on November 12, topping Alkermes’ prior $20-per-share bid announced last month. Avadel’s daytime sleepiness medicine is projected to generate over $550 million in annual sales, spurring aggressive bidding among strategic buyers.
Eli Lilly Approaches $1 Trillion Valuation
Eli Lilly shares pushed toward $1,025, bringing the company within reach of a $1 trillion market cap. The 21% November surge reflects strong Q3 earnings and a favorable pricing agreement with the Trump administration on blockbuster GLP-1s Mounjaro and Zepbound, which expanded Medicare coverage. Analyst consensus remains “Strong Buy” with a 12-month price target near current levels, though the stock trades at elevated 50x trailing earnings multiples.
2025 Pharma M&A Approaches $70 Billion
Through November 10, global pharmaceutical M&A reached approximately $70 billion in upfront consideration across 17 deals valued at $1 billion or more. MASH and obesity drugs have driven much of the activity, with Novo Nordisk’s $5.2 billion Akero deal, Roche’s $2.4 billion 89bio acquisition, and GSK’s $1.2 billion Boston Pharma purchase all targeting metabolic liver disease alongside GLP-1 therapies. The biotech sector has staged a comeback, with XBI up 3% and IBB reaching levels not seen since November 2021, driven by successful clinical readouts and commercial momentum.
Upcoming Week: September jobs report release Thursday, November 20. Critical catalyst for Fed’s December rate decision amid ongoing data drought from shutdown.