Weekly Commodities Report
SEQH Capital Partners Research
Weekly Commodities Report – 18 October 2025
5 p.m. EST
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• Broad commodity benchmarks posted their fourth consecutive weekly gain, led by a 2.4 % rally in precious & industrial metals.
• Gold printed a new all-time high at $4,251.82 spot (+1.7 % on week) and silver surged 6 % to $50.10, its first $50 settle since the 2011 squeeze.
• Energy complex lagged: WTI crude eked out a 0.1 % gain despite a 4.2 mmbbl U.S. inventory build, while nat-gas re-tested $3.00 on early-winter HDD revisions.
• Grains were flat-to-higher; Dec corn +0.2 %, Dec wheat +0.3 %, both consolidating after USDA’s 149 bpa corn yield surprise last week.
• Forward curve signals: 1-mo BCOM 25-delta calls skew +6.7 vols over puts (highest since Apr-22), suggesting macro funds are hedging renewed inflation tail-risk into the U.S. election.
INDEX PERFORMANCE (week-to-date)
Bloomberg Commodity Total Return (BCOMTR) 263.93 +0.62 %
UBS-Bloomberg CMCI (CMCITR) 1,664.38 +0.27 %
S&P GSCI Total Return (SPGSCITR) 3,804.38 +0.33 %
Rogers Int’l Commodity (RICIGLTR) 3,986.47 +0.43 %
CRB (CRYTR) 364.86 unch
SECTOR RECAP
ENERGY
WTI Crude (CL1) $57.54 +$0.08 +0.14 %
Brent (CO1) $61.29 +$0.23 +0.38 %
RBOB Gasoline (XB1) 183.77¢ +2.60¢ +1.44 %
ULSD/Heating Oil (HO1) 218.00¢ +2.65¢ +1.23 %
Henry Hub NG (NG1) $3.01 +$0.07 +2.38 %
Price action was listless. Brent’s 1-mo vs 12-mo backwardation collapsed to ‑$0.22, the first contango print since Dec-23, as Atlantic basin spare capacity (OPEC+ 5.4 mmbbl/d) and weaker Chinese teapot buying offset geopolitical premium. U.S. refined products outperformed on export demand, diesel cargoes to Europe at 1.1 mmbbl, the most since March. Natural gas drew 52 bcf vs 5-yr avg 47 bcf; weather models flipped colder for weeks 3-4, lifting Nov futures through the 100-dma.
PRECIOUS & INDUSTRIAL METALS
Gold (GC1) $4,213.30 +$91.30 +2.12 %
Silver (SI1) $50.10 +$3.19 +5.99 %
Copper (HG1) 496.95¢ +2.95¢ +0.59 %
Platinum (XPT) $1,619.52 +$98.87 +5.75 %
Drivers: (i) Real U.S. 10-yr yield ‑68 bps post-CPI; (ii) RBI (India) announced 31 t import quota for festival season; (iii) silver ETF holdings +3.4 %, largest weekly inflow since 2022. Gold’s 14-day RSI 78—technically overbought but momentum funds target $4,400 by year-end on 1.1 % rule-based re-weighting in GSCI. Copper shrugged off LME stocks rising to 285 kmt as China’s Oct semi-fabricators order book hit 18-mo high.
AGRICULTURE
Corn (C 1) 422.5¢ +0.75¢ +0.18 %
Wheat (W 1) 503.8¢ +1.25¢ +0.25 %
Cocoa (CC1) $5,895 +$96 +1.60 %
Cotton (CT1) 64.28¢ +0.55¢ +0.86 %
Live Cattle 241.83¢ +6.05¢ +2.44 %
Corn/wheat trapped in a 40-cent range; funds hold net short 180 k (corn) vs 310 k two weeks ago. Cocoa’s 5-day rally tied to Ivory Coast port delays (San Pedro 3-day queue). Cattle cash trade $245 dressed, $4 premium to futures—packers chasing tight-ready numbers ahead of holiday kills.
NEXT-WEEK OUTLOOK & KEY CATALYSTS
18-22 Oct calendar
Mon 21 Oct – China Q3 GDP & Sep industrial production (consensus +4.9 % y/y).
Tue 22 Oct – U.S. existing home sales; Richmond Fed mfg.
Wed 23 Oct – EIA weekly oil & products; FOMC minutes (hawkish tail-risk).
Thu 24 Oct – Euro-area flash PMIs; ECB survey on bank lending.
Fri 25 Oct – U.S. Sep PCE deflator (core +0.2 % m/m); CFTC position data.
ENERGY
We see WTI $55-60 range-bound until clearer OPEC+ 2026 quota signal (4 Dec meeting). Upside: any Israeli strike on Iranian crude/export infrastructure. Downside: U.S. production back above 13.5 mmbbl/d (latest 13.35). Trade idea: sell Nov $58 straddle (18 % vol) vs buy $54/$62 strangle—capture theta with gamma hedge around inventory prints.
NAT-GAS
Weather remains swing factor. GFS ensemble added 15 HDDs for early Nov; if trend persists, $3.35-3.50 next resistance. Storage surplus vs 5-yr now ‑30 bcf; we recommend long Dec futures with a stop below $2.85.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold’s 30-day rolling correlation to 10-yr TIPS now ‑0.87 (5-yr low). Election volatility premium is stretched—1-week ATM implied vol 28 % vs 21 % realized. Tactically, we favor selling $4,300 weekly calls to fund $4,400 upside; strategic longs via 3-mo 25-delta calls rolled delta-neutral. Silver likely outperforms on beta; target $52.80 (161.8 % Fib extension).
BASE METALS
Copper’s COT net long 34 k lots—room to add on China stimulus. Watch LME-Shanghai arb; import window opened at +$52, could spur 100 kmt bonded-stock draw. Range $4.40-4.60 next week; buy dips vs $4.35 stop.
GRAINS & SOFTS
USDA likely to leave corn yield unchanged on 11 Nov report; weather in Brazil Center-West favorable (planting 52 % vs 46 % 5-yr). Wheat watching Black Sea—Russia’s 13.5 $ export tax floor could discourage December sales. Cocoa grind data (due 17 Oct) showed Europe ‑2 % y/y; any further weakening could shave $300 off front-month. Cotton export sales need 250 k bales/week to hit USDA forecast; current pace 190 k.
POSITIONING & FLOWS
Commodity ETPs: +$2.1 bn net inflows (largest since Mar-22). Gold ETPs +$1.4 bn, broad-energy ‑$0.3 bn redemptions. CTA trend models flipped to long crude (50 % weight) and added to silver (35 %). Risk-reversal skew in BCOM options at 95-percentile bullish.
BOTTOM LINE FOR INVESTORS
Stay long precious metals through U.S. election tail-risk but monetize theta via covered-call overlays. Energy offers carry-neutral optionality—sell volatility, own gamma on geopolitical headlines. Grains are a mean-reversion play; await South-American weather premium build in November. Maintain overweight commodity beta (target BCOM 270) with 20 % volatility budget into year-end.
DISCLAIMER: This material is prepared by SEQH Capital Partners Research and is for institutional clients only. It is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or commodity. Past performance is not indicative of future results.