Weekly Macro Trends Report
11/22/25
WEEKLY MACRO TRENDS TEAR-SHEET
Date: November 22, 2025
HIGHLIGHTS: LAST WEEK’S MACRO SNAPSHOT
FOMC Minutes Spark Volatility
Released November 19, minutes revealed deep Fed division over a December rate cut, shifting cut probability from 99% to ~70% in one session.
Policy hawks cited sticky core inflation; doves pointed to labor market normalization.
New York Fed’s John Williams signaled near-term cut flexibility, stabilizing sentiment Friday.
Inflation Remains Stubborn
September CPI: 2.6% headline, 3.0% core; core PCE trending below CPI but still above 2% Fed target.
Services inflation (healthcare, shelter, transport) drives the persistent core problem.
Producer Price Index (PPI) revealed moderation in goods, but services remain hot.
Labor Market Update
Latest September: 119k jobs added, unemployment up to 4.4%, hourly wage growth at 3.8%.
Participation rate improving, but jobless claims hold steady (210k–225k range).
Labor landscape reflects normalization, not recession.
Equity Market Correction
S&P 500 fell 1.95%; Nasdaq-100 dropped 2.8% as semiconductors and AI stocks sold off.
VIX spiked to 23.43, highest since September.
Defensive sectors (utilities, staples) outperformed; tech P/E unraveled from 30x to 27–28x.
Fixed Income Holds Range
10-year Treasury held near 4.10%; curve remains nearly flat.
Corporate spreads widened on risk-off shift; high yield at 320 bp, IG at 95 bp above Treasuries.
Fed Funds futures reflect just 30% probability of a December cut.
Geopolitical Backdrop
U.S.-China trade truce brought modest relief for cyclicals.
Middle East risks remain, but oil stabilized at $72/barrel.
OUTLOOK: WEEK OF NOV 25–29, 2025
Holiday Liquidity & Positioning
Thanksgiving (Thursday) and Black Friday (3-hour market Friday): Expect 30–40% average volume; spreads, volatility typically widen.
Institutional risk reduction is common before holiday closure.
Key Macro Calendar Events
Wednesday: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), October, at 8:30am. Critical for Fed rate expectations:
Consensus: Core PCE at 2.7% YoY. Print above 2.8%, hawkish tilt; below 2.6%, dovish.
Friday: Chicago PMI for October; consensus 48.5 (contraction, not recession).
Fed Policy Scenarios
Doves need confirming PCE softness to justify a December cut.
Hawks cite sticky services inflation; prefer holding rates steady till January.
Market-implied probability for a December cut now at 70%; January at 55–60%.
Equities: Sector Implications
Dovish PCE triggers rally in REITs, utilities, discretionary.
Hawkish PCE pressures duration sectors, boosts financials.
Fixed Income: Yield Movers
10-year yield resistance: 4.25% (hawkish case); support: 3.95% (dovish).
Spreads could compress if dovish surprise.
Risks to Monitor
Hawkish inflation surprises, geopolitical escalation, tech margin compression.
Dovish risks: FOMC accommodation, strong holiday retail data, M&A flows.
FULL MACRO TRENDS REPORT AVAILABLE TO CLIENTS AND MEMBERS BELOW:
