Weekly Macro Trends Report

Nov 15, 2025

∙ Paid

SEQH CAPITAL RESEARCH
Macro Tear-Sheet: November 15, 2025

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy

December rate cut odds have fallen sharply to roughly 50%, down from over 90% a month ago, as Fed officials express caution amid sticky inflation and missing economic data due to the government shutdown.
The Fed cut rates by 25 bps in October, bringing the target range to 3.75–4.00%, and signaled it will end balance sheet runoff in December.
Inflation remains above target at 3.0% (CPI, September), with energy and shelter costs driving the uptick.
Labor market data is unavailable due to the shutdown, but alternative indicators suggest gradual cooling.
The Fed’s next move is highly uncertain, with policymakers divided and the absence of official data increasing the likelihood of a pause.

S&P 500: +0.08% for the week; Nasdaq: -0.45%; defensive rotation continues as AI bubble concerns mount.
Energy led sector gains, while tech and consumer discretionary lagged.
Third-quarter earnings season remains strong, with 90%+ of S&P 500 companies beating expectations and revenue surprises outpacing profit beats.
Nvidia and Walmart earnings this week will be critical for AI and consumer sentiment.

China’s economy slowed sharply in October, with industrial production at 4.9% YoY (weakest since 2024), retail sales at 2.9%, and fixed asset investment contracting.
ECB held rates steady, projecting inflation at 2.1% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026; further cuts possible if growth weakens.
Geopolitical risks remain elevated, with ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East tensions, and North Korea’s assertive posture.

WTI crude oil: $59.95/barrel, supported by geopolitical supply risks but pressured by demand concerns.
Gold: Fell 3% to $4,080/oz on hawkish Fed commentary, but remains up 59% YoY.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 99.27, range-bound as rate cut uncertainty persists.

U.S. home prices rose just 1.2% YoY in September, with inventory up 12.8% and days on market at 64.
Existing home sales rose 1.5% in September, but affordability remains a challenge.
Jobless claims edged down to 227,543, but official October employment data is unavailable.

Big Tech AI capex now exceeds $405B in 2025, up 62% YoY, with Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon leading the spending surge.
Investor skepticism is rising as AI-related stocks lost $1 trillion in value in early November.
Apple’s measured AI spending has emerged as a relative advantage.

FOMC Minutes (Wed, Nov 19): Critical for Fed policy clarity and rate cut expectations.
Nvidia Earnings (Wed, Nov 19): Will test AI sector resilience and demand sustainability.
Walmart Earnings (Thu, Nov 20): Bellwether for U.S. consumer health.
Flash PMI Data (Fri, Nov 21): Timely read on global growth momentum.

Monetary Policy: Expect volatility and a pause in December unless labor data shows sharp deterioration.
Equities: Rotate into defensive sectors (financials, healthcare, energy); remain selective in tech, favoring companies with proven AI monetization.
Fixed Income: 10-year Treasury yields at 4.08–4.15% offer attractive risk-adjusted returns; extend duration cautiously.
Geopolitical Risk: Maintain hedges via gold, defense, and cybersecurity exposure.
China: Underweight EM equities with China exposure; monitor for stabilization in tech and consumption.

FULL 10-PAGE MACRO TRENDS REPORT AND OUTLOOK BELOW:

Inculuded:
- Deep-dive on Fed policy division, December rate cut odds, and implications for markets.
- Breakdown of AI sector spending surge, risks of a bubble, and how leading tech firms are responding.
- Analysis of global macro trends: China’s economic slowdown, ECB/BoE policy shifts, and geopolitical risks.
- Equity sector rotation insights, including which industries are leading and why defensive themes matter now.
- Actionable positioning guidance for financials, defensives, and selective tech amid heightened volatility.
  
  FULL REPORT HERE: