Weekly Model Fund Analysis Report
2/8/26
SEQH Capital Research
Model Nuclear & Uranium Fund: Updated Forecast & Scenario Analysis
Tear Sheet – February 8, 2026
Market Update: Correction Creates Opportunity
The Model Nuclear & Uranium Fund has pulled back 16.6% from its peak, with total portfolio value declining to 111,815 dollars and the total return since inception moderating to +11.82%. SEQH views this as a textbook correction within a nascent bull market, not a change in fundamentals, and an even more compelling entry point. We are upgrading our recommendation to Accumulate / Strong Buy.
Fund Snapshot (as of Feb 8, 2026)
Total portfolio value: 111,815.10 dollars.
Total return since inception: +11.82%.
Annualized volatility: 26.29% (decreased from prior reading).
Sharpe Ratio: 0.297 (compressed by recent drawdown).
Sortino Ratio: 0.409.
Max drawdown: -26.98%.
Alpha vs. SPY: +13.72%.
Core holdings performing well despite correction: NUAI (+70.4%), UUUU (+43.6%).
Thesis: Unchanged and Reinforced
The fundamental pillars of our bullish case are stronger than ever:
Supply deficit: 50% utility contracting shortfall is structural fact, not forecast, utilities must return to the market to fuel their reactors.
Demand surge: 70 new reactors under construction globally plus AI/data center electricity demand creating non-negotiable baseline of new consumption.
Policy tailwinds: Global government support continues to solidify, providing durable backing for the sector.
U.S. production decline of 44% adds near-term bullish pressure atop decades-long supply/demand imbalance.
Uranium price targets unchanged:
Base Case: 92 dollars per pound.
Bull Case: 120 dollars per pound.
Updated 12-Month Forecast (From Lower Baseline)
The pullback dramatically improves the return profile. Our recalibrated 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation shows:
Scenario framework:
Bull Case (30% probability): 120 dollars per pound uranium target → +209.5% fund return, projected value of 346,037 dollars.
Base Case (50% probability): 92 dollars per pound uranium target → +97.9% fund return, projected value of 221,238 dollars.
Bear Case (20% probability): 70 dollars per pound uranium target → delayed utility contracting, temporary demand weakness.
Probability distribution highlights:
Base Case: 99.3% probability of a positive return; 82.5% probability of exceeding +50%.
Bull Case: 100% probability of a positive return.
Risk/reward profile is now exceptionally asymmetric.
Updated Risk Metrics
Forecast Base Case Sharpe Ratio: 29.35 (dramatically improved from current 0.297 due to lower entry point).
Bear Case 95% VaR (12-month): maximum expected loss of 25.47%, manageable relative to projected upside.
Max drawdown increased to -26.98%, but this is a lagging indicator of recent price action, not a leading indicator of fundamental risk.
Primary risk remains timing, not thesis. Non-discretionary nuclear fuel demand provides strong structural floor. Current correction is shaking out weaker hands and setting the stage for a more sustainable and powerful uptrend.
Why Act Now
16.6% correction from peak offers substantial discount to the same secular growth story.
Fundamental drivers (supply deficit, AI demand, policy support) are unchanged and strengthening.
Return potential has nearly doubled from updated baseline: +97.9% Base Case (vs. +73.8% in prior report), +209.5% Bull Case (vs. +135.3% prior).
Portfolio asset quality remains strong, core holdings still showing meaningful gains despite sector pullback.
Market currently providing an opportunity to invest before long-term fundamentals are fully reflected in price.
SEQH View
We upgrade our stance to Accumulate / Strong Buy. The recent correction is a gift to investors who understand the long-term fundamentals. This is the opportunity to build a significant position in what we believe will be one of the defining bull markets of this decade. The investment case has become profoundly asymmetric, and we urge clients to act with conviction.
Full Report (Paid Subscribers Only)
The complete updated Fund Forecast & Scenario Analysis includes full portfolio holdings breakdown, updated Monte Carlo simulation outputs (10,000 iterations), return distribution analysis, risk metrics deep-dive, performance trajectory visualization, and strategic allocation guidance.
→ Full PDF available exclusively to SEQH Capital Research paid subscribers. Upgrade to access →
