Weekly Model Nuclear & Uranium Model Fund Analysis Report
1/24/26
SEQH Capital Research
Model Nuclear & Uranium Fund: Tear Sheet
January 24, 2026
High-Level Thesis
The nuclear and uranium sectors are entering a generational bull market driven by:
A structural ~50% uranium supply deficit creating significant pent-up utility demand.
Accelerating global demand from AI data centers, new reactor construction, and life extensions.
Over 80 billion dollars in U.S. government commitments to revitalizing the nuclear fuel cycle and reactor fleet.
The Model Nuclear & Uranium Fund is designed as a concentrated, high‑conviction vehicle to capture this multi‑year repricing.
Current Fund Snapshot
Total return: +38.72%.
Current portfolio value: approximately 134,142 dollars.
Risk‑adjusted performance:
Sharpe Ratio: 0.810.
Sortino Ratio: 1.803.
Max drawdown: -19.26%.
Alpha vs. SPY: +38.69%.
Portfolio structure:
9 holdings across the nuclear fuel cycle.
Exposure to uranium miners, fuel cycle assets, and nuclear/advanced reactor developers.
Standout names:
NUAI: +145.6%.
UUUU: +72.5%.
12-Month Outlook & Scenario Framework
Our forecast uses a three‑scenario framework supported by a 10,000‑iteration Monte Carlo simulation with regime‑switching.
Base Case (50% probability):
Uranium price target: 92 dollars per pound.
Forecast fund return: +73.8%.
Projected fund value: 233,161 dollars.
Bull Case (30% probability):
Uranium price target: 120 dollars per pound.
Assumptions: strong utility buying, supply shock, accelerated policy catalysts.
Forecast fund return: +135.3%.
Potential fund value: 315,583 dollars.
Bear Case (20% probability):
Uranium price target: 70 dollars per pound.
Assumptions: delayed utility contracting, temporary demand softness.
Emphasis on defensive positioning rather than catastrophic downside.
The modeled distribution of outcomes is skewed positively, with a high likelihood of favorable returns outside of the most extreme Bear environments.
Core Catalysts
Structural Supply-Demand Imbalance
Annual industry requirement: roughly 185 million pounds of uranium.
2025 utility contracting: about 75 million pounds, implying a 50% deficit vs. replacement needs.
U.S. uranium production down roughly 44%, increasing reliance on foreign supply.
Geopolitical risk from dependence on Russia, Kazakhstan, and other state‑linked suppliers.
Secular Demand Drivers
70 new reactors under construction globally, representing about 78 GWe of new capacity.
China leading the global build‑out, with a long‑dated pipeline beyond current projects.
AI and hyperscale data centers creating a new, sustained source of baseload power demand.
Life extensions for the existing nuclear fleet, locking in multi‑decade fuel demand.
Uranium formally designated a U.S. Critical Mineral, elevating strategic priority.
Policy & Regulatory Tailwinds
80+ billion dollars of U.S. nuclear‑related commitments across:
New reactor programs and advanced nuclear.
Domestic enrichment and conversion capacity.
Strategic uranium reserve initiatives.
Bipartisan emphasis on:
Energy security.
Grid reliability.
Enabling AI and data center build‑out with firm, carbon‑free baseload.
Risk & Risk Management
While the outlook is highly constructive, volatility is expected to remain elevated.
Forward‑looking Base Case risk metrics:
Projected Sharpe Ratio: 14.91 (vs. current 0.810).
95% 12‑month Value at Risk (VaR): approximately -20.78% maximum expected loss.
Key risks:
Slower‑than‑expected return of utility contracting.
Delays in reactor construction or policy implementation.
Short‑term price shocks from macro or liquidity events.
Mitigating factors:
Nuclear fuel demand is ultimately non‑discretionary; utilities can delay, but not avoid, purchases.
Diversified exposure across miners, fuel cycle, and reactor technologies reduces single‑name risk.
Structural undersupply and strategic importance provide a strong long‑term floor for the sector.
SEQH View
Stance: Strong Buy.
Rationale:
Positioned at the epicenter of a multi‑year secular bull market in nuclear and uranium.
Asymmetric risk/reward with substantial modeled upside versus quantified, manageable downside.
Current sector valuations, in our view, do not fully reflect the depth of structural change underway.
Full Report (Paid Subscribers Only)
For a complete deep dive, including:
Full 10,000‑iteration Monte Carlo results and methodology.
Detailed Bull/Base/Bear scenario construction and regime‑switching logic.
Complete holdings breakdown, sizing framework, and performance attribution.
Granular uranium supply‑demand modeling and price trajectory analysis.
Expanded VaR, CVaR, and stress‑test work.
Implementation guidance and allocation considerations.
