Weekly SEQH Capital Model Fund Analysis Report
2/22/26
SEQH Capital Research
Model Nuclear & Uranium Fund: Forecast and Scenario Analysis
Tear Sheet – February 22, 2026
Why This Report Exists
The SEQH Capital Research Model Nuclear & Uranium Fund has completed a V-shaped recovery after a two-week correction, validating the thesis that the downturn was a temporary dislocation, not a fundamental shift. This report updates the fund’s performance metrics, Monte Carlo scenario analysis, and 12-month return forecasts using February 22, 2026 data.
Fund Performance Snapshot (Feb 22, 2026)
Total portfolio value: 113,193.84 dollars. Total return: +13.19% since inception.
Annualized volatility: 25.47% (decreasing, indicating stabilization).
Sharpe Ratio: 0.513 (recovering sharply). Sortino Ratio: 1.231 (strong recovery).
Max drawdown: -17.64% (improved significantly from -26.98% low).
Alpha vs. SPY: +16.337%.
The fund peaked in late January, found its bottom on February 8th, and has since staged a clear reversal. Strategic allocation across the nuclear fuel cycle has proven resilient, with the recovery lifting all positions.
Core Thesis: Confirmed
Supply deficit: Structural imbalance remains the single most important factor. U.S. production down 44%, adding near-term bullish pressure.
Demand surge: AI growth and 70 reactors currently under construction globally provide a powerful long-term demand tailwind.
Policy support: Government backing for nuclear energy is now a global consensus.
Updated uranium price targets: Base Case 95 dollars per lb. Bull Case 125 dollars per lb.
12-Month Scenario Forecasts (10,000-Iteration Monte Carlo)
Bull Case (30% probability): +240.1% return, fund value to 384,958 dollars. Uranium at 125 dollars per lb. Assumes strong utility buying wave, supply shock, policy acceleration.
Base Case (50% probability): +109.7% return, fund value to 237,328 dollars. Uranium at 95 dollars per lb. Sustained utility demand recovery, supply discipline maintained.
Bear Case (20% probability): Uranium at 72 dollars per lb. Temporary demand pause, market consolidation.
Return probabilities (Base Case): 99.5% probability of positive return. 87.9% probability of exceeding +50%. Bull Case shows 100% probability of gain.
Risk Profile (Updated)
Base Case forecast Sharpe Ratio: 31.64.
Bear Case 95% VaR: potential 12-month loss of no more than 20.25%.
Successful retest of lows has established a higher support level, reducing downside risk.
Primary risk has shifted from further correction to the opportunity cost of not being invested.
SEQH Recommendation
IMMEDIATE AND STRONG ACCUMULATION. The correction is over and the primary uptrend has resumed. The window to accumulate positions at discounted levels is closing. Base Case forecasts +109.7% and Bull Case +240.1% over the next 12 months. The investment case is clear, the technical picture has turned bullish, and the fundamental drivers are accelerating.
Want the Full Fund Forecast & Scenario Analysis?
[READ THE COMPLETE MODEL FUND UPDATE]
The full report includes proprietary quantitative modeling available only to paid subscribers:
Complete portfolio composition breakdown with individual position performance and allocation weighting
V-shape recovery visualization with peak-to-trough-to-recovery trajectory analysis
10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation results with full return distribution histograms across all three scenarios
Risk metrics dashboard: current performance vs. 12-month forecast including Sharpe, Sortino, VaR, and alpha progression
Maximum drawdown recovery analysis with historical context and forward-looking support levels
Annualized volatility trend tracking showing stabilization post-correction
Uranium price forecast framework with scenario-weighted supply/demand modeling
Capital deployment recommendations with specific accumulation strategy and timing guidance
Our models show 99.5% probability of positive returns in the Base Case. If you’re positioned in nuclear and uranium, this is the data you need to size your conviction.
Available exclusively to SEQH Capital Research paid subscribers. Upgrade to access →
